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#1438917 - 25/10/2017 17:48 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
This'll be the drought breaker for sure!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438919 - 25/10/2017 17:52 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Even GFS is liking the Illawarra now...hot off the press.




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#1438920 - 25/10/2017 17:54 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting BoM is having none of the ACCESS-C forecast for the Illawarra; "showers, possible storm; 4-10mm".

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#1438921 - 25/10/2017 17:56 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Interesting to see storms in Wollongong. The Radar showed a small cell passing over Lake Illawarra about an hour ago, with another cell just North of Wollongong and one near Robertson. There looks to be a lot more activity down South, with what looked like a massive storm passing over Narooma, with more storms over the Snowy Mountains. There's a severe thunderstorm warning for part of that area (damaging winds).

It's clouded over in Sydney again after a mostly sunny and humid day. Just messy stuff, can't see any structure. Except near the beach and the tongue of 'cold' air that fills the Harbour and foreshores, it got quite hot, 32 at Olympic Park and even 31 at the Airport.

Tomorrow's forecast says a thunderstorm storm is'likely' for Sydney.

EDIT: there's another cell approaching St George's Basin and another West of Nowra.

EDIT2: wrong thread.

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#1438922 - 25/10/2017 17:58 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yeah some very healthy looking radar!

Looking at the GFS precipitation-snail-trail; it seems to suggest storm; then a few hours of anvil/nimbostratus type rain as the low pushes east; followed by some wrap-around se'erly showers Friday?

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#1438925 - 25/10/2017 18:32 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
GFS does seem to be showing a fairly stormy, unsettled pattern over the next couple of weeks. Friday looks like it could be a typical 'South Easterly' day with low cloud and showers, with the storms having moved North with the low. Sydney forecast says 3 to 8mm, could be right.

Access looks to be showing a significant cool change overnight Monday / Tuesday, with the blue line briefly passing North of Sydney and 850 temps of about 2 degress, but little or no rain to go with it.

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#1438929 - 25/10/2017 19:12 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
mkeene(pingtang) Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2011
Posts: 521
Loc: Nowra,NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider


Pingtang, you reckon the Southern Highlands will be good then? I will be heading up there tomorrow afternoon. I think shear will be good enough to bring cells to the coast anyway. If the storms are strong enough, the outflow will clear away any scud.


Hey sorry for the late reply. Was at work. Yeah the Highlands should definitely see something, I don't think it will be my target area, but if you are heading up there anyway, you will see some interesting weather. Probably the extra elevation will help your chances of seeing hail as well. It's hard to pin point a target area, the coast has the moisture but the cooler SE winds strengthen the cap a bit. However there's definitely enough shear at the 700 level to drag storms from ranges to coast. Some where like western Sydney may see some deeper convection with the warmer surface temps there. The Hunter should fire off later, as the cold pool bights into some very warm surface temps. Regardless its going to be an interesting day!

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#1438945 - 25/10/2017 20:48 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Another Southerly change has passed through Sydney, dropping temps from around 24 to 20. It shows up clearly on the Doppler radar, as a boomerang shape extending from Broken Bay bending back to Warragamba. Maybe it will trigger something.


Edited by Steve777 (25/10/2017 20:48)

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#1438951 - 25/10/2017 21:25 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
No worries Pingy, yeah I will be heading up the Southern Highlands as I do every Thursday arvo now so hopefully I get something.

And look at that, there's a stormy mass of sorts making a beeline for this area. Appears to be rather lightning active too actually!!


Edited by Wave Rider (25/10/2017 21:26)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438954 - 25/10/2017 21:34 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
It's a very active storm, I can hear it booming away in the distance quite regularly.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438958 - 25/10/2017 22:10 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yay storm inbound no. 2 for today

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#1438962 - 25/10/2017 22:25 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I didn't get a storm where I was today but this just now certainly was one! A nice little storm indeed, if a bit too quick.


Edited by Wave Rider (25/10/2017 22:25)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438965 - 25/10/2017 22:28 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Online   happy
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 259
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Looks like some showers are developing over the CT's again.
Wouldnt be too suprised if it copies what the last storm did

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#1438975 - 26/10/2017 01:03 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
ipex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/05/2014
Posts: 160
Loc: Katoomba, NSW
Woken up by thunder here in Katoomba at 1am. Fair bit of lightning, intermittent light rain.

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#1438978 - 26/10/2017 06:16 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 813
Loc: Cammeray
“Possibly severe” now appears in the Sydney forecast.

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#1438980 - 26/10/2017 07:23 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Based on how easily those storms formed last night without surface heating, today is going to be amazing.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438982 - 26/10/2017 08:01 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Welt Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/12/2005
Posts: 31
Loc: Surry Hills
The General met forecast for Sydney this morning sounds promising.

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS AS A LOW OVER WESTERN NSW AND
A TROUGH OVER THE NSW COAST INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT SETUP. THE
COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW OFF THE HUNTER COAST
THIS MORNING STEERING A MOIST SOUTHERLY AIRSTREAM OVER SYDNEY.
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. SHOWER OR
TWO INCREASING THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME HEAVY OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SEA LATER THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE UNDER THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. POSSIBLE FAST-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OFF THE RANGES, MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

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#1438983 - 26/10/2017 08:11 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
That sounds about right, offshore storms during the day and we have to rely on storms off the ranges.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1438984 - 26/10/2017 08:58 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Watching Sunrise atm, they are talking about a "Super Storm/Supercell" this afternoon for Sydney with destructive winds, 5cm hail. They are talking it up like its a given??
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1438985 - 26/10/2017 09:08 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I even saw the term MEGASTORM in the coverage. The general populace will be shaking in the boots.

About 10.30 last night I went outside and could see a very active lightning storm way off to my South or SE.

May have been part of Reilly's storm or further south.

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