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#1438986 - 26/10/2017 09:10 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
But the above forecast says it will stay off the coast, will it happen or not?
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1438987 - 26/10/2017 09:30 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3585
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I saw that report of "Supercell" storms in the Telecrap. Just hype. Storms may or may not happen over Sydney. If they do, it will be from storms making it off the ranges without falling apart.

There were reports of storms over Sydney overnight. I didn't hear anything. A number of Sydney sites got 0.2 to 2 mm to 9:00.

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#1438989 - 26/10/2017 09:46 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
lol on again now, now labelled "MONSTER STORM SYSTEM" lol

** You guys need to call channel 7 and sort them out, friggen idiots alarming people for nothing!


Edited by Jet entrance (26/10/2017 09:48)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1438992 - 26/10/2017 10:43 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Overnight GFS still persisting with widespread severe storm activity today - but lowered the rainfall. BoM however has upped it for a number of areas (20-40mm pronged here now in the Illawarra).

Forecast: Illawarra for Thursday Cloudy. Very high chance of showers, most likely during this afternoon and evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, most likely during the afternoon and evening, and possibly severe. Light winds becoming SE 15 to 25 km/h in the middle of the day.







Edited by Kino (26/10/2017 10:46)

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#1438995 - 26/10/2017 10:53 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rsav Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2016
Posts: 61
Will this cloud cover affect or impede storm development today?

I think the Hunter looks a good bet today. What do others think?


Edited by Rsav (26/10/2017 10:54)

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#1438996 - 26/10/2017 11:00 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Rsav]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rsav
Will this cloud cover affect or impede storm development today?

I think the Hunter looks a good bet today. What do others think?


Storms will form to the west then push east - so no, low cloud shouldn't hamper them as long as moisture is good over the ranges etc. Still quite a complex situation - suns out here and it's sure muggy.

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#1438997 - 26/10/2017 11:01 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Full sunshine out here.

Not muggy here yet.

MSI (Mouse Stickiness Index) still in normal limits here smile

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#1439000 - 26/10/2017 11:09 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Actually - just popped outside and all of a sudden - heaps of small cumulus clouds popping up all over the joint.

Most tipped over a bit or strung out - so apparently windy up there.

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#1439001 - 26/10/2017 11:16 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3585
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just typical 'post-Southerly' weather in Sydney (the Southerly arrived around 7:00PM last night). Overcast with low cloud, mild, light to moderate SE'ers. Satellite shows what looks like marine layer cloud on the coast South from Newcastle and inland to the Divide. Doesn't look or feel like the sort of day you would expect anything much to happen.

We'll see what develops this afternoon and this evening.

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#1439005 - 26/10/2017 11:52 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 860
Loc: Carramar (Fairfield), Sydney, ...
Sun making an appearance here, albeit short but it's starting to look much brighter with a couple of blue patches appearing.

Cancelled my trip to camp today/tonight north of Port Macquarie due to the inclement weather. Will just do the full trip to Byron Bay tomorrow but was keen to break up the trip given I had the day off.

Hopefully today delivers the goods! grin
_________________________
The pitter patter of rain falling is the sweetest sound you'll ever hear.

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#1439007 - 26/10/2017 12:05 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Quite astonished at the cool temps in the southern highlands & southern tablelands areas. MUCH cooler than here - obviously that cloud cover down there.

Wind getting more enthusiastic out here now. Clouds building. Still plenty of sun though.

About 25 here, 18 in Goulburn, Moss Vale about 16, Cooma 15

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#1439008 - 26/10/2017 12:05 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6433
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah clouds are breaking up here as well, but it's quite cold outside and certainly does not feel like a storm day as Steve said. But we have the upper cold pool so heating shouldn't be a problem but it would certainly be helpful if temps were warmer.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1439009 - 26/10/2017 12:08 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I will set the storms up out here in the sunshine and push them over to you guys smile

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#1439010 - 26/10/2017 12:09 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Just remember the forecast activity wasn't til well later this arvo (well according to GFS & BoM).

With cold uppers, even 20c should be effective.

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#1439013 - 26/10/2017 12:32 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9819
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Watch that big cloud blob in lower west NSW - as it moves east, It will likely form the catalyst of a lot of storm activity.

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#1439017 - 26/10/2017 12:47 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1554
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Interesting day here at Cooks Gap, really warm and muggy with a very stiff breeze, but the sky has that "extremely dry" look about it, with just a few heavily capped Cu floating around. It looks a bit more bubbly on the main range to our East though. Just have to wait and see I suppose.

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#1439021 - 26/10/2017 13:04 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
I know we all hate the commercial channels pushing the 'major' storms etc, but that is what they do to make (more) money. Fluffy white clouds and gentle breezes just don't get their viewers excited and switching on. The more viewers that turn on, the more advertising revenue they get, and we all know that money talks.

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#1439023 - 26/10/2017 13:05 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Not much activity on the radars atm, I suppose we will just have to wait and see what happens later on.

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#1439032 - 26/10/2017 13:35 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
ipex Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/05/2014
Posts: 159
Loc: Katoomba, NSW
Cloud is starting to break up here in the Blue Mountains and the sun is coming through at times. After a cool morning, it's starting to get warm. It's very humid out there - there's a bit of steam rising from my street as the water evaporates.

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#1439033 - 26/10/2017 13:36 Re: Low & Upper Cold Pool - severe storms and rain, 25 - 28 Oct 2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1253
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Plenty of sun here now; still only early 20's. Plenty of cu over the hills wafting in with broad slabs of ACCA's.

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