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#1438814 - 25/10/2017 00:23 VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards...
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey everyone! New thread for the final event for October 2017, and to get us started for November. smile

A weak high pressure area will move in behind the low currently moving through. It'll then get 'squeezed' off the East Coast into the South Pacific, setting the stage for what's shaping up to be real springtime 'Battle of the Air Masses' across Southern Australia.

An enormous cool pool from Antarctica will charge across the Southern Ocean. Embedded within this cold air mass, a series of lows and fronts will develop, most of which will stay well to our south.

But by next weekend, an exceptionally powerful cold front and deepening low will suddenly swing north into the Bight. A trough will form over the Outback and tropical Northern Australia and dive south, accompanied by a warm to hot, humid, unstable northerly airflow, which will gain momentum and strengthen across Victoria as the winter storm prepares to burst upon us by next Monday!

Should be a muggy/sultry, unsettled weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely. Forecast top of 29C for Melbourne and 36C for Mildura on Sunday btw. Then once the polar blast hits on Monday it'll be a full-on cold outbreak, hopefully with some beefy, vigorous coldies with hail and thunder (possibility of alpine snow as well). smile

Models are in a bit of disagreement atm, but following next Monday's cold blast GFS has the possibility of an ECL spinning up off the East Coast (but likely to be too far east to impact Victoria much at this stage), while ACCESS has another ferocious winter storm lined up ready to strike Southeastern Australia mid/late next week! smile

Have a great one.

Aussiestormfreak smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (25/10/2017 00:23)

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#1438834 - 25/10/2017 09:20 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Certainly cold enough for snow asf, 536 air and -2C @ 850hPa Monday night (ACCESS)

Better take the heater out of mothballs for this one !

Looks like the ECL might be to far off to spin up much moisture for us, love to be corrected though. Good rain is forecast for Monday but doesn't appear to come out of the ECL.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1439395 - 27/10/2017 14:58 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Glorious weather today! Dipped to a rather chilly 7.9C overnight here in Belgrave, but it warmed up quickly this morning and now it's around 28C. Mostly sunny, with the hot sun being offset by a fresh northerly breeze. Perfect to be outside. smile

Expecting the trough to move through tonight; hopefully a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with its passage across Victoria. Cooler tomorrow, then hot northerlies return on Sunday ahead of Monday's cold blast. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (27/10/2017 15:03)

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#1439407 - 27/10/2017 18:19 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
ASF, your trough with storms looks to be about to move through Vic tonights as you forecast.....



I reckon a storm, (or least audible rumbles) are a chance for those out on the course at Royal Maffra tomorrow afternoon!


Edited by Petros (27/10/2017 18:27)

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#1439428 - 28/10/2017 09:10 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
0.7mm early this morning. Sky still screaming storm here atm but wind has moved to NW and light and I can see fog to my south.

Was quite windy around 330 or so as first drops of rain evaporated into the dry air. DP over 12 now though.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1439444 - 28/10/2017 12:01 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Warm night of 17c and now 25c at 12pm....

Some thundery in North...

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#1439470 - 28/10/2017 14:00 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 534
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Cooled down now and clouding over

But lots more showers and storms for NE vic next 6-12 hours.

Warm windy tomorrow (cant wait) then big front tomorrow night with gales, rain band showers storms sow the lot.

Before a week of winter weather Mon-Sat to take us into early Nov

BOOO
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1439472 - 28/10/2017 14:17 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 28.7C here in Belgrave today. It was a lovely warm day to spend outside as said in my last post, with refreshing breezes. smile

A balmy, breezy night followed, with the temperature staying around 21-23C for much of the evening. It dipped to 21.5C around 8pm and spiked to 22.6C around 3am btw.

Showers and thunderstorms moved through between 2:30am and 6:30am, leaving us with 1.1mm of rain. Judging by the Weather Chaser radar records, it seems the showers were locally heavy. I don't recall any thunder or lightning occurring in my area though.

It dropped to 14.6C this morning after the trough came through, and it's been a mostly cloudy start to the day but with increasing sunny breaks. Currently around 22C, having warmed to 23.2C about 30 minutes ago. smile

Looks to be some showers and storms occurring north of a line from Kilmore to Marysville and all the way to Northern and Northeast Victoria and into Southern NSW. That cell between Mansfield and Lake Nillahcootie looks juicy! grin

Another warm day tomorrow, going for 28C here in Melbourne and 33C in Mildura. Should be a very windy day, likely to be a Severe Weather Warning! Looking forward to the cold blast on Monday, hoping for a good 10-20mm of rain and maybe some decent hailshowers and thunder. smile

Looks like it'll be the last of the warmth for at least the next 7 days or so, we'll be lucky if we get a second day above 20C here in Melbourne after tomorrow lol.

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#1439473 - 28/10/2017 14:20 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Loading up on firewood as we speak,
In anticipation for a cold week ahead!!
Specially Monday/ Tuesday ❄️

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#1439481 - 28/10/2017 15:54 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victoria very lucky to escape warm to hot most of Australia most next week, thanks to High pressure sitting in south Ocean
"Bright" to keep Victoria cool week.

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#1439491 - 28/10/2017 16:58 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Pelted down 6mm from a thunderstorm passing overhead round 1600, more following with some luck from the N/W.

Handy follow up to recent rain grin
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1439497 - 28/10/2017 17:13 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Will "put up with" this BOM forecast................ grin

"Mon 30 Oct Forecast Rain

Min9C Max19C Possible rainfall: 8 to 20mm

Chance of any rain: 100% "

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/boisdale/
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1439503 - 28/10/2017 18:09 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
This is very nice, another 6.5mm in 12 minutes from the 2nd stormy cell from the N/W, and still light rain.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1439504 - 28/10/2017 18:54 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
After nearly 3 hours of thunder - BOM has this online - oops!

"Cancellation Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in East Gippsland, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:42 pm Saturday, 28 October 2017.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in Victoria.
The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary."

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21033.shtml

A third storm cell emptying out overhead at the mo', great stuff!!
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1439508 - 28/10/2017 19:57 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1094
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice stuff samboz 👍
Those storms have been running all
Day nor west to south east and pretty
Much haven't moved off there line either!

If your in the firing line there sure would
Be some handy rain I'd reckon!

Nothing at all up here today, but hopefull
Of a 10-20mm drop sun night Monday period??😀

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#1439513 - 28/10/2017 21:11 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
Just eased off now dooga, the 25mm gauge was full about 1.5hrs ago, guessing towards 30mm now grin

Very timely drop by Huey.

edit..I see Briagolong has had 39mm since 0900 today.



Edited by samboz (28/10/2017 21:13)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1439520 - 28/10/2017 22:31 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: samboz]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 133
Loc: Melbourne Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
After nearly 3 hours of thunder - BOM has this online - oops!

"Cancellation Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in East Gippsland, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.


To nitpick, they aren't saying no more storms, just they don't meet the severe threshold anyore.

Fairly common in topical areas, but you don't see it much down here with the lack of dangerous storms.

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#1439521 - 28/10/2017 22:34 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1216
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
looks to have blown up again over seymour and nagambie...... what I would do to be at the mangalore airport with my camera right now.....
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1439524 - 28/10/2017 23:04 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Lightning to the east nice to see
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1439534 - 29/10/2017 07:25 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had a sequence of 3 nearby storms here past 18 hours, provided 18 much needed mm 🙂 🙂

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