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#1438814 - 25/10/2017 00:23 VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards...
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey everyone! New thread for the final event for October 2017, and to get us started for November. smile

A weak high pressure area will move in behind the low currently moving through. It'll then get 'squeezed' off the East Coast into the South Pacific, setting the stage for what's shaping up to be real springtime 'Battle of the Air Masses' across Southern Australia.

An enormous cool pool from Antarctica will charge across the Southern Ocean. Embedded within this cold air mass, a series of lows and fronts will develop, most of which will stay well to our south.

But by next weekend, an exceptionally powerful cold front and deepening low will suddenly swing north into the Bight. A trough will form over the Outback and tropical Northern Australia and dive south, accompanied by a warm to hot, humid, unstable northerly airflow, which will gain momentum and strengthen across Victoria as the winter storm prepares to burst upon us by next Monday!

Should be a muggy/sultry, unsettled weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely. Forecast top of 29C for Melbourne and 36C for Mildura on Sunday btw. Then once the polar blast hits on Monday it'll be a full-on cold outbreak, hopefully with some beefy, vigorous coldies with hail and thunder (possibility of alpine snow as well). smile

Models are in a bit of disagreement atm, but following next Monday's cold blast GFS has the possibility of an ECL spinning up off the East Coast (but likely to be too far east to impact Victoria much at this stage), while ACCESS has another ferocious winter storm lined up ready to strike Southeastern Australia mid/late next week! smile

Have a great one.

Aussiestormfreak smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (25/10/2017 00:23)

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#1438834 - 25/10/2017 09:20 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Certainly cold enough for snow asf, 536 air and -2C @ 850hPa Monday night (ACCESS)

Better take the heater out of mothballs for this one !

Looks like the ECL might be to far off to spin up much moisture for us, love to be corrected though. Good rain is forecast for Monday but doesn't appear to come out of the ECL.

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#1439395 - 27/10/2017 14:58 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Glorious weather today! Dipped to a rather chilly 7.9C overnight here in Belgrave, but it warmed up quickly this morning and now it's around 28C. Mostly sunny, with the hot sun being offset by a fresh northerly breeze. Perfect to be outside. smile

Expecting the trough to move through tonight; hopefully a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with its passage across Victoria. Cooler tomorrow, then hot northerlies return on Sunday ahead of Monday's cold blast. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (27/10/2017 15:03)

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#1439407 - 27/10/2017 18:19 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
ASF, your trough with storms looks to be about to move through Vic tonights as you forecast.....



I reckon a storm, (or least audible rumbles) are a chance for those out on the course at Royal Maffra tomorrow afternoon!


Edited by Petros (27/10/2017 18:27)

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#1439428 - 28/10/2017 09:10 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
0.7mm early this morning. Sky still screaming storm here atm but wind has moved to NW and light and I can see fog to my south.

Was quite windy around 330 or so as first drops of rain evaporated into the dry air. DP over 12 now though.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1439444 - 28/10/2017 12:01 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Warm night of 17c and now 25c at 12pm....

Some thundery in North...

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#1439470 - 28/10/2017 14:00 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Cooled down now and clouding over

But lots more showers and storms for NE vic next 6-12 hours.

Warm windy tomorrow (cant wait) then big front tomorrow night with gales, rain band showers storms sow the lot.

Before a week of winter weather Mon-Sat to take us into early Nov

BOOO
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Bring on the STORMS

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#1439472 - 28/10/2017 14:17 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a top of 28.7C here in Belgrave today. It was a lovely warm day to spend outside as said in my last post, with refreshing breezes. smile

A balmy, breezy night followed, with the temperature staying around 21-23C for much of the evening. It dipped to 21.5C around 8pm and spiked to 22.6C around 3am btw.

Showers and thunderstorms moved through between 2:30am and 6:30am, leaving us with 1.1mm of rain. Judging by the Weather Chaser radar records, it seems the showers were locally heavy. I don't recall any thunder or lightning occurring in my area though.

It dropped to 14.6C this morning after the trough came through, and it's been a mostly cloudy start to the day but with increasing sunny breaks. Currently around 22C, having warmed to 23.2C about 30 minutes ago. smile

Looks to be some showers and storms occurring north of a line from Kilmore to Marysville and all the way to Northern and Northeast Victoria and into Southern NSW. That cell between Mansfield and Lake Nillahcootie looks juicy! grin

Another warm day tomorrow, going for 28C here in Melbourne and 33C in Mildura. Should be a very windy day, likely to be a Severe Weather Warning! Looking forward to the cold blast on Monday, hoping for a good 10-20mm of rain and maybe some decent hailshowers and thunder. smile

Looks like it'll be the last of the warmth for at least the next 7 days or so, we'll be lucky if we get a second day above 20C here in Melbourne after tomorrow lol.

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#1439473 - 28/10/2017 14:20 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Loading up on firewood as we speak,
In anticipation for a cold week ahead!!
Specially Monday/ Tuesday ❄️

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#1439481 - 28/10/2017 15:54 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Victoria very lucky to escape warm to hot most of Australia most next week, thanks to High pressure sitting in south Ocean
"Bright" to keep Victoria cool week.

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#1439491 - 28/10/2017 16:58 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Pelted down 6mm from a thunderstorm passing overhead round 1600, more following with some luck from the N/W.

Handy follow up to recent rain grin

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#1439497 - 28/10/2017 17:13 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Will "put up with" this BOM forecast................ grin

"Mon 30 Oct Forecast Rain

Min9C Max19C Possible rainfall: 8 to 20mm

Chance of any rain: 100% "

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/vic/boisdale/

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#1439503 - 28/10/2017 18:09 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
This is very nice, another 6.5mm in 12 minutes from the 2nd stormy cell from the N/W, and still light rain.

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#1439504 - 28/10/2017 18:54 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
After nearly 3 hours of thunder - BOM has this online - oops!

"Cancellation Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in East Gippsland, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:42 pm Saturday, 28 October 2017.
Weather Situation:
Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in Victoria.
The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary."

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21033.shtml

A third storm cell emptying out overhead at the mo', great stuff!!

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#1439508 - 28/10/2017 19:57 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice stuff samboz 👍
Those storms have been running all
Day nor west to south east and pretty
Much haven't moved off there line either!

If your in the firing line there sure would
Be some handy rain I'd reckon!

Nothing at all up here today, but hopefull
Of a 10-20mm drop sun night Monday period??😀

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#1439513 - 28/10/2017 21:11 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Just eased off now dooga, the 25mm gauge was full about 1.5hrs ago, guessing towards 30mm now grin

Very timely drop by Huey.

edit..I see Briagolong has had 39mm since 0900 today.



Edited by samboz (28/10/2017 21:13)

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#1439520 - 28/10/2017 22:31 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: samboz]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Melbourne Victoria.
Originally Posted By: samboz
After nearly 3 hours of thunder - BOM has this online - oops!

"Cancellation Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in East Gippsland, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.


To nitpick, they aren't saying no more storms, just they don't meet the severe threshold anyore.

Fairly common in topical areas, but you don't see it much down here with the lack of dangerous storms.

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#1439521 - 28/10/2017 22:34 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
looks to have blown up again over seymour and nagambie...... what I would do to be at the mangalore airport with my camera right now.....
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1439524 - 28/10/2017 23:04 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Lightning to the east nice to see
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1439534 - 29/10/2017 07:25 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Had a sequence of 3 nearby storms here past 18 hours, provided 18 much needed mm 🙂 🙂

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#1439541 - 29/10/2017 08:29 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: smeagols_ghost]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Originally Posted By: smeagols_ghost
Originally Posted By: samboz
After nearly 3 hours of thunder - BOM has this online - oops!

"Cancellation Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in East Gippsland, Northern Country, North Central, North East and West and South Gippsland Forecast Districts.
To nitpick, they aren't saying no more storms, just they don't meet the severe threshold anyore.
Fairly common in topical areas, but you don't see it much down here with the lack of dangerous storms.


Not nit picking sg, a timely bit of education to bring attention to correct terms for given weather conditions, so thanks mate. grin

For info of other weather commentators - "Severe thunderstorms produce large hail, damaging wind, very heavy rainfall and tornadoes. There is no absolute relationship between these events and visible thunderstorm features, but a few pointers are relevant."

http://www.bom.gov.au/storm_spotters/handbook/observing_thunderstorms.shtml

On the "education" subject - it would be very nice if more experienced posters followed sg's lead.....

To wind up, 37 bloody lovely gorgeous wet MM's, magnificient rain laugh grin

Tomorrows 100% chance of 6-20mm is still on our local BOM forecast, better pump up some overflowing tanks.


Edited by samboz (29/10/2017 08:32)

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#1439545 - 29/10/2017 08:38 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bloody nice samboz & p 😀👍
That would have given u guys some
Handy totals over the past week!

Getting set for a warm one today and
Then winter tommoz 😂😂 and
10-20mm hopefully!!

Baw Baw could get a good cover out
Of this up coming front

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#1439547 - 29/10/2017 08:46 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Round 60mm dooga grin

100% cloud/mist drizzle but will clear from the west to a humid
day with forecast 29C.


Edited by samboz (29/10/2017 08:47)

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#1439548 - 29/10/2017 08:47 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
Just 4.5mm rain last two days 39mm for the month not even half average. [30mm last month] but our area looks great maybe we don't always need as much as we think.Great to see those needing rain to get good rain.

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#1439572 - 29/10/2017 11:50 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Great, Warm, Sunny, Windy, day today.
That big front is a coming though tonight.

^%$&#y week to 10 days of winter after today

Lots of TS for our E folk yesterday and last night great falls in Gippy very welcome I am sure and more tomorrow.

Loving today.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1439573 - 29/10/2017 11:53 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Also STW are ONLY issued for SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Storms that contain
Hail larger than 2cm
Winds in excess of 90km/h
Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding
Tornadoes

If storms do not contain these things then no warning will be issued or cancelled.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1439582 - 29/10/2017 13:19 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very windy with light smoke in uppers layer from backburn somewhere now is 27c.

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#1439613 - 29/10/2017 17:09 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.1C, reached a very warm high of 28.9C here in Belgrave today, and still around 27C. It felt quite hot in the Sun, in spite of the northwest/northerly winds which began kicking up this morning and quickly strengthened into a gale by mid/late-afternoon! eek

Mostly clear skies, although it has been noticeably hazy and there's been a bit of high cloud and some sporadic cumulus.

Pressure was around 1005hPa this morning, now it's fallen below 1000hPa. The change is currently over the Colac/Otway region and should hit Melbourne in a couple of hours, accompanied by squalls and a sharp temperature drop of around 10-20C! Then it'll be followed not long afterwards by quite a decent rainband which should last well into tonight, with cloud increasing quick quickly ahead of the band. Then wintry winds with lots of heavy coldie showers and thunderstorms tomorrow with hail (and snow to 1100m), and then an extended cool spell! Hoping for at least 20-30mm of rain over the next 24 hours. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (29/10/2017 17:15)

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#1439628 - 29/10/2017 17:44 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Max of 27c up here today with a strong
Nor wester blowing.

Today's wind dried things off a fair bit
Soil wise so a nice 10-15mm would
Be fantastic please lol 😀

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#1439631 - 29/10/2017 17:47 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nice temp drop with this front according
To bom obs!!

Cape nelson and Portland both already
Down to 11c brr

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#1439638 - 29/10/2017 18:01 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2617
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Clouds here burn off seem get thicker in West working hard move Eastwards as still 28c with horrible Gusty winds.

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#1439677 - 29/10/2017 19:51 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Saw 29.5C round 1600 today, muggy when busy but o/wise a nice day.

Can it really drop over 10mm here early tomorrow, bit of a back step on WATL but fingers crossed.

850hPa Temps weren't as cold as earlier for this front but still cool days ahead, less evap. so all is good at the mo'.

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#1439693 - 29/10/2017 20:46 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
logansi Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1110
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Some big temp drops with the wind change, starting to impact Melbourne airport with a couple of go-arounds in a row
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1439885 - 30/10/2017 19:26 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1304
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Pretty cool today! Max of 13c
And a rude winters morning today
With a low of 5c. A very icy wind with
Rain as I walked out the door.

8mm since last nights front came through.

Also caught a glimpse of some nice snow
Over Baw Baw first thing this morning

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#1439918 - 30/10/2017 21:44 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Just when you thought Winter was done and dusted dooga'.

6.5mm earlier this AM and another 1mm this arvo.

The place is greening up !

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#1439921 - 30/10/2017 21:54 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
4mm all up 3.5mm last night the rest from threatening but ultimately useless coldies.

Max 11.5c back to 4.8c now, low this morning was 2,7c. Comfy. Will be lucky to crack 15 here all week, very happy with that.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1439995 - 31/10/2017 22:04 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Crazy weather over the last 48 hours! crazy

It was a balmy, blustery Sunday evening, and it stayed clear until a band of mid-level cloud associated with the cold front moved over around dusk.

The temperature contrast associated with the front sure was dramatic! As stated in my last post it peaked at 28.9C here in Belgrave on Sunday afternoon. By 8:30pm it was around 23C. The change swept through at about 9:30pm, and by 11:30pm it had fallen to 13C and still dropping, until it bottomed out at a low of 6.4C early on Monday morning.

Light showers occurred with and immediately after the front moved through; the main rainband followed later during the night.

Not as much coldie convective action as I was hoping for yesterday - the bulk of the day was sunny - but we did have some quite heavy showers during the day and at night and even a thunderstorm with hail! grin

The storm was preceded by a 20-minute heavy shower around lunchtime. Then there was a 10 minute let-up, but it was still dark and gloomy, then it started hailing. The hail got heavier and lasted a good 5-10 minutes; the stones were about the size of a pea. Then as the hail eased and the storm started clearing, the thunder and lightning started up!

Like the hailstorm, the round of thunder and lightning lasted a good 10 minutes or so and with surprising frequency, on average once a minute. And it was quite close too! Nice surprise. grin

It warmed to 17.6C yesterday, then dropped to 6.5C last night, and finally warmed to 20.2C today. Showers persisted right up until late this morning, followed by a mild, mostly sunny afternoon with cool breezes. Cloud then increased again late in the afternoon in response to the next frontal system moving in, and there's some possible light showers showing up on radar. smile

Collected a total of 12.7mm of rain for this event, with 5.3mm and 6.3mm in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday and today respectively, and then 1.1mm since 9am today. smile

At the last check it was around 12C.

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#1440083 - 01/11/2017 20:54 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 10.1C, reached a top of 19.8C here in Belgrave today. At the last check it was around 13C.

It's been a damp, chilly, grey start to November. In addition to the 1mm I collected since 9am yesterday, I obtained another 4.2mm last night. So in total I collected 5.2mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am today.

Since then, there's only been very light showers and drizzle today - but we managed a few glimpses of blue sky and sun as well.

Edit: in my last post above I said 1.1mm. Correction, it was actually 1mm. Sorry for the miscalculation if anyone notices. poke


Edited by aussiestormfreak (01/11/2017 21:01)
Edit Reason: Miscalculation.

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#1440158 - 03/11/2017 08:32 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Couple of mm during the day y'day, close to 4.5mm in the gauge now since 0900 2/11, these overcast dampish days are A1, no evap.to dry out last months good falls.

Grass kicking along now!

Nothing much on the horizon in the next week, cooler days, sounds great grin

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#1440191 - 03/11/2017 14:02 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Been a cool, damp start to late-spring here in Belgrave, not that I'm complaining. smile

Yesterday and today so far have been mostly cloudy with chilly breezes, although we had afternoon sunshine for several hours yesterday plus a few sunny breaks earlier today.

I collected 4.3mm and 2.1mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday and today respectively, so 11.6mm of for the month so far.

The temperature ranged between 9.7C and 18.1C yesterday, and today's overnight low was 8.2C. Currently around 14C.

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#1440223 - 03/11/2017 23:31 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Been yet another damp, chilly late-spring day here in Belgrave. The persistent onshore flow affecting Victoria from Bass Strait and the Southern Ocean was maintained and further enhanced by the passage of another cold front today. So a mix of sun and rain.

Reached a top of 18.0C this arvo, thanks to lengthy sunny breaks. But we still had numerous showers come through, mostly light. The heaviest rain occurred during the front's passage itself between 4:30pm and 5:30pm, but only 1mm was recorded. The rain was quite torrential for about 15 minutes during this hour!

Tonight could become my coldest November night on record, or close to it! The old record is 5.4C on November 12th 2014. At the last check it was 5.7C outside. crazy

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#1440240 - 04/11/2017 15:55 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 3.6C, my coldest November night on record! Also tying with September 14th and 17th for my coldest night for Spring 2017. crazy

And yet another cool November day here in Belgrave, with a top of only 18.2C so far. We had a few light showers this morning, but it's been a mixture of cloudy periods with sunny spells. But the biggest problem has been the wind, which feels quite raw. poke

Currently around 17C.

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#1440276 - 04/11/2017 22:14 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Amendment to my last post...

Less than 30 minutes after my last post, we hit a top of 18.8C.

A cold, clear moonlit night out there, currently around 7C. Let's see if we can beat last night's record 3.6C minimum, even if it's just by 0.1C lol. wink

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#1440348 - 05/11/2017 17:13 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 5.2C, reached a top of 20.3C here in Belgrave today. Despite cool southeasterly winds and partly cloudy skies, it's been noticeably warmer, much sunnier and far drier than the past few days! smile

Currently around 17C.

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#1440556 - 06/11/2017 18:04 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2079
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Coool Day !, about 2.5mm, several light hail showers and some distant thunder.

Currently plenty of blue sky to the S/W, breezy and 16C.

The low off the south NSW coast spears off rapidly to NZ and is at the S Island by dark tomorrow.(ACCESS)

27C by Sunday (BOM)

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#1440565 - 06/11/2017 19:12 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 6.6C, reached a top of only 15.9C here in Belgrave today, my coldest day for November 2017 so far. A mostly cloudy day but with some nice sunny breaks, mainly during the afternoon; we also had some light showers and drizzle this morning. smile

Currently around 12C. Hoping to see a couple of showers overnight and tomorrow morning as the southerly flow behind the storm affecting the East Coast is briefly reinforced by the cold front over Tasmania. smile

Looking forward to much warmer weather from Wednesday onwards!! grin

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#1440641 - 07/11/2017 06:08 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
Great day yesterday for us rained all day just gentle rain and we got 24mm.Couldn't look better around here.

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#1440686 - 07/11/2017 13:01 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Great result Alexia. 1.2mm this morning at home from windy mizzle and drizzle. Temp currently 9.3c, did briefly crack 10 a little while back.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1440688 - 07/11/2017 13:18 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 8.7C, currently around 15C and mostly cloudy with sunny breaks. Collected 2.1mm of rain last night. smile

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#1440729 - 07/11/2017 18:03 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7384
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We got 25.5mm for this thread, 45mm since 24/10.

Nice, but the taps been turn off it seems.

Been up at Palm Cove past 10 days, nothing to report from up there except 32C, calm and very muggy every day.

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#1440732 - 07/11/2017 18:21 Re: VIC - Warm, Thundery, Troughy Period Then Potentially Major Winter Storm, Poss. ECL - Oct 27th 2017 Onwards... [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hope you had a great time in Far North Queensland Petros! I stayed at Palm Cove when I was on a family holiday in Cairns back in July 2013 - absolutely loved it, almost as much as Fiji IMO. wink

Anyway, reached a top of 16.2C here in Belgrave today. Another cool, mostly cloudy day for the 2017 Melbourne Cup but with sunny breaks. Currently around 13C.

Looking forward to much warmer late-spring weather returning starting tomorrow! Also hoping for some nice warm weather (and perhaps a few good storms) when I head off to Sydney and the NSW Blue Mountains late next week. smile

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