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#1438909 - 25/10/2017 17:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2137
Loc: Clare, SA
Some proper summery updraughts just to the SW of Clare at the moment, may end up getting a heavy shower today! What a sight for sore eyes.
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1438910 - 25/10/2017 17:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Quite nice towers Downs South also Markus, hopefully you score a dumper ⛈️
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1438930 - 25/10/2017 19:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Well nothing took off down south in the metro but a cracking cell out near Geranium. Also new cells exploding East of Strathalbyn, fascinating to watch...


Edited by Jet entrance (25/10/2017 19:20)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1438953 - 25/10/2017 21:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17535
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
At least meteorologically it went up as expected.

TS cool


Only certain forecasts got it correct. BOM was correct up until they said "a possible Thunderstorm until early evening". Pretty sure 1:30am isn't early evening. &#129300;&#128580;&#128526;

And the only one you got that storm correct was GFS and Showalter, as mentioned prior to it developing.

I love reading your posts TS, just had a gripe with that one line &#128513;


Probably not worth my time and effort to point this out, but ec and access also called yesterday beautifully. In terms of the type of system and the type of cells it produced and the time frame they got it right. Gfs and access called the night time stuff as well. Ec and gfs also did today very well too.

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#1438976 - 26/10/2017 01:17 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14876
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
At least meteorologically it went up as expected.

TS cool


Only certain forecasts got it correct. BOM was correct up until they said "a possible Thunderstorm until early evening". Pretty sure 1:30am isn't early evening. 🤔🙄😎

And the only one you got that storm correct was GFS and Showalter, as mentioned prior to it developing.

I love reading your posts TS, just had a gripe with that one line 😁


I don't look at BoM forecasts as an expected outcome - I interpret my own from what is there. It was clear it'd get up, just nothing too major. ACCESS-R showalter was also pretty close to the mark, but areas just ahead of the bullseyes due to the cloud base being higher than 850hPa which is where show alter is derived off. If we had a 700hPa showalter, it'd have murdered it.

TS cool

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#1439055 - 26/10/2017 14:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: teckert

Probably not worth my time and effort to point this out, but


Oh boy, you need to seriously chill a little my friend, time to start using your powers for good, not evil. I think everyone would agree you are one of the most knowledgeable posters on this forum and your input is normally close to the mark, but the attitude you continually use in your posts is fairly childish and egotistic, I think I speak for everyone when I say, lighten up dude!

And btw, you mentioned storms would be all gone thru by sunset, if you any information re the storms in the early hours of Wednesday(your reference to ec & access yesterday), why didn't you post it in that same post? Not 2 days after the event grin
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1439056 - 26/10/2017 15:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
At least meteorologically it went up as expected.

TS cool


Only certain forecasts got it correct. BOM was correct up until they said "a possible Thunderstorm until early evening". Pretty sure 1:30am isn't early evening. 🤔🙄😎

And the only one you got that storm correct was GFS and Showalter, as mentioned prior to it developing.

I love reading your posts TS, just had a gripe with that one line 😁


I don't look at BoM forecasts as an expected outcome - I interpret my own from what is there. It was clear it'd get up, just nothing too major. ACCESS-R showalter was also pretty close to the mark, but areas just ahead of the bullseyes due to the cloud base being higher than 850hPa which is where show alter is derived off. If we had a 700hPa showalter, it'd have murdered it.

TS cool
Thanks TS, I totally understand what your saying, cheers for replying, without the attitude, unlike others.
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1439162 - 26/10/2017 18:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1621
Loc: Bridgewater
total fireban day in the lofty area

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#1439259 - 26/10/2017 22:07 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17535
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
JE - you just proved exactly why I said it. Was expecting that sort of reply back. If you don't want to try and understand more about models and how they work and learn more about how to forecast storms accurately, then people like myself and TS won't bother.

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#1439268 - 26/10/2017 22:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7279
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Potentially sharp-angled surface trough tomorrow [probably reaching Adelaide by noon] as upper longer-wave trough forced below STR to the north. Surface trough may draw on 576-thickness effect to the NW-N. Thinking thundery showers. Was evident today from looking skyward at cloud patterns and measuring dewpoint. CAPE may be higher in 500-1000 J/Kg range. Dewpoint could spike - 9.45 pm relative humidity currently around 90%, MSLP: 1015 hPa. MSLP may venture sub-1000 hPa by tomorrow night smile .

Based on local observations/synoptic maps from last 5-7 days. My views smile .


Edited by Seira (26/10/2017 22:27)

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#1439287 - 26/10/2017 22:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Lol yeah thanks Teck...

Anyone watching the squall line currently in NSW?? Biggest in history!! Gaining intensity on its approach to Sydney. 10cm hail reported!!
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1439297 - 26/10/2017 23:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7279
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Anyone watching the squall line currently in NSW?? Biggest in history!! Gaining intensity on its approach to Sydney. 10cm hail reported!!

I'm aware of it smile ...though in another state, and another thread.

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#1439369 - 27/10/2017 10:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Thanks Seira, yes was well aware it was in another state and another thread, thanks 😁
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1439370 - 27/10/2017 10:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Lol yeah thanks Teck...

Anyone watching the squall line currently in NSW?? Biggest in history!! Gaining intensity on its approach to Sydney. 10cm hail reported!!


Yeah was a beast. Was watching the radar longingly poke
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#1439383 - 27/10/2017 12:50 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 611
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Looks like some electrical activity over KI


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#1439388 - 27/10/2017 13:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Looks pretty weak to be honest atm...
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1439392 - 27/10/2017 14:01 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2137
Loc: Clare, SA
I'd expect it will thicken up quite rapidly over E.P. soon, plenty of spontaneous mid level formation around. Hopefully there's enough instability for some decent bolts...please!
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1439398 - 27/10/2017 15:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Happy Birthday Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1572
Loc: West Richmond
FYI, there is a separate thread for today's system.

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#1439417 - 27/10/2017 21:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7279
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Seira
Potentially sharp-angled surface trough tomorrow [probably reaching Adelaide by noon] as upper longer-wave trough forced below STR to the north. Surface trough may draw on 576-thickness effect to the NW-N. Thinking thundery showers. Was evident today from looking skyward at cloud patterns and measuring dewpoint. CAPE may be higher in 500-1000 J/Kg range. Dewpoint could spike - 9.45 pm relative humidity currently around 90%, MSLP: 1015 hPa. MSLP may venture sub-1000 hPa by tomorrow night smile .

Based on local observations/synoptic maps from last 5-7 days. My views smile .

The surface trough arrived 3-6 pm, so a little later than thought, however it looks like the sub-1000 hPa was in the same time frame.


Edited by Seira (27/10/2017 21:42)

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#1439422 - 28/10/2017 04:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
...


Edited by Markus (28/10/2017 14:50)
Edit Reason: Enough with the trolling.

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