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#1444899 - 14/12/2017 22:35 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Yeah imminent probably is wrong word, inevitable some time away or maybe sooner is more what I was thinking. For ARs or AR like features i am looking for precipitable water movement tropics south to mid latitudes. Recent times have appeared to me be weak possibilities.

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#1444933 - 15/12/2017 23:58 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7447
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Flowin
For ARs or AR like features i am looking for precipitable water movement tropics south to mid latitudes.

My understanding is it is more complicated that just looking for precipitable water. I think what might be sought is large areas of higher water-vapour concentration. It is also worth noting NWCBs, are cloud bands. Atmospheric Rivers (Integrated Water-Vapour Transport) are not necessarily cloud bands. This why I conveyed I thought the Australian NWCB is a version of an AR.

Also, if one wishes to get their ideas together, a reasonable suggestion would be to write them down smile .


Edited by Seira (16/12/2017 00:03)

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#1445152 - 19/12/2017 09:09 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
[/quote=Siera]
My understanding is it is more complicated that just looking for precipitable water. I think what might be sought is large areas of higher water-vapour concentration. It is also worth noting NWCBs, are cloud bands. Atmospheric Rivers (Integrated Water-Vapour Transport) are not necessarily cloud bands. This why I conveyed I thought the Australian NWCB is a version of an AR.

[/quote]

I agree with all of that. I would also add that generally ARs seem to be described as a tropics/sub-tropics source towards the mid-latitudes (25 deg to 45/50 deg).


Edited by Flowin (19/12/2017 09:10)
Edit Reason: tried to fix quote:(

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#1445511 - 21/12/2017 22:20 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Current total precipitable water experimental product at link below (aka quasi integrated water vapour) suggests an AR like system at play between northern NSW and NZ across the Tasman.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5

Moisture feed and longitude seems to be a similar mechanism as north west cloud band but a bit further east. Also concentrated water advection perhaps a bit further south?

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#1445619 - 23/12/2017 23:27 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7447
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
And another AR-like feature - of sorts - across WA-SE Australia now smile .

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#1446090 - 27/12/2017 21:05 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Anything remotely AR like appears absent at this moment.
But the satellite images of low in NW WA for visible clouds and water vapour do appear impressive. And next week ahead on synoptic charts looks like an interesting dynamic.

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#1446284 - 29/12/2017 18:58 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2173
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defin looks like an AR on the backend of the ex-TC to me.

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#1447007 - 03/01/2018 00:13 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7447
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Thanks for the original MIMIC-TPW2 link Flowin smile .

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#1447346 - 05/01/2018 07:12 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Cheers Seira - good to share links to resources.
Looks like Coral sea gave NZ a dose of AR moisture feed in weather they experienced on north island in the last day or so.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11969352

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#1449201 - 18/01/2018 13:50 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
And another AR like event for NZ at the moment.
Shows up well on MIMIC-TPW
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5

And media reporting it as "a river of sub-tropical air"
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11976862

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#1452224 - 11/02/2018 19:57 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
New Zealand looks to have been getting a fair dose of atmospheric precipitable water from the tropics. Appears broad, and mass to that region it is impressive.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mt...4hrs&anim=html5

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#1452225 - 11/02/2018 19:59 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld

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#1452411 - 12/02/2018 22:36 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Around mid-Jan bbowen posted about the next gen GFS model....link here.. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...he_#Post1449204


Here is an example "experimental" (not operational) output of total water, which will be of interest for AR like events...

http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_products.php?YMDH=2018021118&Region=global&field=tq



Edited by Flowin (12/02/2018 22:39)

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#1453993 - 23/02/2018 08:35 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
The next generation FV GFS suggesting Aus is going to pass an AR does of moisture to NZ again in about 3 to 4 days.

http://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/fvGFS/fvGFS_products.php?YMDH=2018022206&Region=global&field=tq

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#1454008 - 23/02/2018 09:43 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Thanks for that link Flowin ,It was interesting.Have saved it .
_________________________
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#1454992 - 27/02/2018 22:31 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
new GOES satellite anticipated to improve AR forecasting for USA (among a range of other expectations)

http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/five...ts-western-u-s/

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#1456739 - 12/03/2018 10:45 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7447
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Hi Flowin smile ,

After doing some more research and investigation, I believe it may be easier and more pertinent to think of ARs as "large regions and/or bodies" of higher-concentrated water-vapour, traversing a given area before some mechanism leads to rainfall...Integrated Water-Vapour Transport (IWVT) is not a realistic nor adequate representation of what ARs are if it is area-averaged (along the transit path), because it does not account for changes in tropospheric height, latitude, or changes in air pressure with distance and the like.

This is more-or-less food for thought smile , however it may help with interpretation of future AR features affecting the Australian Region.

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#1456859 - 12/03/2018 22:13 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Thanks for your post Seira. Interesting.
I understand difference between integrated water vapour transport and concentrated water stream. Eg a slow moving wide stream with good height giving large sectional area could produce high total water movement (volume/time). Whereas a concentrated stream is high water content on a particular path.
I am not sure what you mean about troposheric height, latitude, or air pressure changes. Can you elaborate on those points? Are they factors in relation to whether water vapour eventuates to rain?
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#1457041 - 13/03/2018 20:36 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Read up a bit on troposphere. Deeper at tropics becoming shallower towards poles if I understand it correctly, so that factor and latitude related?


Edited by Flowin (13/03/2018 20:36)

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#1457051 - 13/03/2018 20:53 Re: Atmospheric Rivers [Re: Flowin]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7447
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Read up a bit on troposphere. Deeper at tropics becoming shallower towards poles if I understand it correctly, so that factor and latitude related?

Yes. Latitude relates to the distance of weather features from the ITCZ. The higher the latitude, the greater the Coriolis Force influence.


Edited by Seira (13/03/2018 20:55)

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