Page 2 of 12 < 1 2 3 4 ... 11 12 >
Topic Options
#1439532 - 29/10/2017 06:26 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
It's yet another example of why completely relying on realtime conditions alone even only several hours out can be dangerous.

Current/recent trends aren't always representative of what's going to happen in several hours or a few days time (although sometimes are are).

Top
#1439533 - 29/10/2017 06:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
The Cloud is definitely clearing a lot earlier than the models suggested, so the heating factor wont be a issue, looks like a nice cell SW of Goondiwindi, though I am not sure if that's a sign that more cells will form before lunch?

Top
#1439561 - 29/10/2017 10:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2930
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Heard on the radio a few showers forecast today. Yea perhaps but the chance of a storm should of been mentioned. So what time will the next airport sounding be? Looked at recent 1700UTC so not sure what time that is?

Top
#1439562 - 29/10/2017 10:59 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
The balloon's launched at 9:15am and the data from the completed sounding should be available on the website by around 11am or so. But the sounding probably won't be that representative of the atmosphere later today.

Top
#1439563 - 29/10/2017 11:07 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2930
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Thanks Ken, when you say won't be like the atmosphere later is that due to change in temperature and dewpoint at different heights? I guess the 4pm forecast sounding would be a reference to compare with the observed sounding?


Edited by Steve O (29/10/2017 11:11)

Top
#1439565 - 29/10/2017 11:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Lani]
Wight Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 29
Loc: Montville, QLD
Originally Posted By: Lani
TWO huntsman on my doorstep yesterday, EWWWWW! So is that because we've had rain, or because we're getting more? Let's see what happens. Remember, so far in 5 years, two or more huntsman in my house (that's counts my doorstep lol) means rain within a week or less. So far hasn't missed a beat. Better than the ants LOL. When we see a couple of the hairy ground spiders heading inside I KNOW we're getting rain. PS: I HATE spiders. Sigh.


I had 4 huntsmans in my house during the couple of weeks leading up to the 350mm we received here a couple of weeks ago. Haven't seen once since then. Maybe an indicator of approaching rain?

Top
#1439566 - 29/10/2017 11:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
I'm suspecting there is not as much excitement on today's forecasts. Even the weather pages are not suggesting much. except for the North Coast storm page where they have already uploaded there maps for storm potential.

Top
#1439567 - 29/10/2017 11:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2930
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Looks pretty volatile probably more coastal depending on where the dryline is. Thought it looked better than Thurs some similarities.

Top
#1439569 - 29/10/2017 11:28 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Thanks Ken, when you say won't be like the atmosphere later is that due to change in temperature and dewpoint at different heights? I guess the 4pm forecast sounding would be a reference to compare with the observed sounding?

Yeah, profiles can often change a lot and fairly quickly over the space of a few hours on potential thunderstorm days (e.g. a solid cap showing up in the morning's observed sounding can quickly erode by late afternoon).

Here's what the Bureau's thunderstorm map for today (that was created yesterday morning) looked like:



Top
#1439570 - 29/10/2017 11:34 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
Ken is that map from the BOM site, or the APP? Cant seem to find it. Many thanks

Top
#1439576 - 29/10/2017 12:03 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: gleno71]
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 550
Loc: Bardon 4065
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Ken is that map from the BOM site, or the APP? Cant seem to find it. Many thanks


I think that is from the BOM's Twitter feed. I've seen it on there before and i think Ken mentioned it was there for the public as well as sent to some of the emergency services for info.


Edited by Foehn Correspondent (29/10/2017 12:04)
_________________________
If at first you donít succeed Ė call it Version 1.0

Top
#1439577 - 29/10/2017 12:17 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2904
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Clouds firing up W & NW. Hot, feels like a storm day. Wont be long before Stapy goes off I think.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (29/10/2017 12:19)

Top
#1439578 - 29/10/2017 12:19 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Foehn Correspondent]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Foehn Correspondent
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Ken is that map from the BOM site, or the APP? Cant seem to find it. Many thanks


I think that is from the BOM's Twitter feed. I've seen it on there before and i think Ken mentioned it was there for the public as well as sent to some of the emergency services for info.


yes I think your right there, thanks mate

Top
#1439580 - 29/10/2017 12:57 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 512
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Either everyone is busy or there is little hope of activity this arv/eve ?
Haven't got my head around today's prospects for some reason, just a hobbiest, Lol !
Tho interesting is the mentioning of this arvo's 'make or bust' set-up ?
I'm not holding much hope 'ere on the GC now, tho on second thoughts, - oh, did I mention - not holding much hope, Lol ?
Oh well, , there still feels an element of surprise in the air tonight ???

HavagoodN
_________________________
Weather or not ?

Top
#1439581 - 29/10/2017 13:00 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
That all or nothing setup is actually for tomorrow, not today.

Top
#1439583 - 29/10/2017 13:47 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I actually like tomorrow's potential a lot more than today. Interestingly Access-R is now on board with EC for tomorrow.

Top
#1439585 - 29/10/2017 13:51 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
wet sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/10/2015
Posts: 626
Loc: NENSW-Wet Subtropics
I think for my area today is looking better, but both days depend on moisture. Today is looking marginal here.

Top
#1439586 - 29/10/2017 14:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I am here lurking PlumbBob. Just observing and checking models, radar etc. It is the sounding for Brisbane that has me quiet at this point. Waiting to see if more moisture can come into the equation. Plenty of instability but this morning has a big dry slot. This can change later though . TTS are low on 43. Just a waiting game at this point.

When you compare Brisbane to Moree you will see what I mean.
_________________________
(coltan)


VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

Top
#1439587 - 29/10/2017 14:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1292
Loc: Australia
I'm out at Beaudersert..can see some tiny convention around Cunningham gap. Nothing too exciting at this stage. So damn hot

Top
#1439588 - 29/10/2017 14:27 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Thunderstorms, some potentially severe - 29th/30th Oct 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 615
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Head into the shopping complex and get yaself a milkshake or somethin gleno not too many other places you can escape the heat out there.I've been watching some convection slowly building down Ballina way . .hope somethin happens

Top
Page 2 of 12 < 1 2 3 4 ... 11 12 >


Who's Online
0 registered (), 307 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
avalon, philiphart, Ravenous2411, Sasho
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23733 Topics
1469420 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image