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#1439744 - 30/10/2017 09:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The BOM forecast mentions "the chance of a thunderstorm during this afternoon and early evening.", with expected rainfall of zero to 4mm.

The Southerly seems to be located near Montague Island. It had not reached Moruya but 9:00. It won't be here until late afternoon. Once it arrives, it looks like we're in Ice Cream Vendor alert territory until late next week, with a brief warmup Friday:

Sydney 10-15 Day forecast

(Link will update).

I think that might be for the Airport, which is cooler in Southerlies.


Edited by Steve777 (30/10/2017 09:44)

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#1439745 - 30/10/2017 09:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Warming up quickly today, already 27C at 8:40am. Should get past 30 within the next hour or two.

Looks like the cold front that is coming will be the coldest since about mid-September in terms of 850mb temps.


What are your thoughts re storm chances this afternoon WR?


The W/NWly today will likely be too dry to produce anything. I would say there is a small chance of storms right on the coast with the southerly change this afternoon though. They will mainly be out to sea so there might be some flashes tonight from really fast moving storms.




Cheers mate.

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#1439748 - 30/10/2017 09:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's really quite warm for October when you consider that it is not yet 9:00 solar time. It's also relatively humid with dew points in Syydney around 12-15. It's now close to 30 in Sydney's East, 27-29 in the West. No sign of any sea breezes yet and today there might not be any except right on the coast.

P.S. There's a moderate NW'er and a clear blue sky. Perfect conditions for 0.2mm to pop up the rain guage at OH or the Airport.

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#1439749 - 30/10/2017 10:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Homer I wouldn't write it off just yet, especially for Sydney basin. It'll depend on timing and what sort of winds ahead of the change. Storm bird shrieking it's lung out this AM and the forecast does say chase of storms. If the CAP breaks it could explode.

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#1439751 - 30/10/2017 10:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Change has already reached Bateman's Bay and surging up the coast. Assume that it'll slow down as it pushes into the stronger winds ahead.

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#1439757 - 30/10/2017 11:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2701
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
OCF is going for between 3-9mm at almost all sites apart from Penrith and Richmond. So given those odds you would think something will fire up somewhere.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (30/10/2017 11:40)

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#1439758 - 30/10/2017 11:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Certainly haven't given up hope Kino.

This is a punchy little change. Currently there's almost 18 deg's difference between Gabo Island and Nowra.

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#1439759 - 30/10/2017 11:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Amazing inversion here in the Illawarra atm - Kiama is 26/16; Albion Park is 32/11 and Bellambi is 29/14.

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#1439761 - 30/10/2017 12:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Kiama now 26/17; meanwhile only 10km's away Albion Park 33/10!

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#1439764 - 30/10/2017 12:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
So warm right now, but yet there should be snow in the CT's tonight. A serious cool change on the way!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1439765 - 30/10/2017 12:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
So warm right now, but yet there should be snow in the CT's tonight. A serious cool change on the way!


Yeah check out that cold air behind it - amazing, this weekend also looks worse (or better if you love cold). Positively frigid airmass slamming into SE Aus.

Adelaide has been having decent fat coldies slamming it with some decent sized hail too (for low-topped Cb's).



Edited by Kino (30/10/2017 12:26)

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#1439766 - 30/10/2017 12:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3592
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Homer
...This is a punchy little change. Currently there's almost 18 deg's difference between Gabo Island and Nowra.

There's also the difference between Moruya where the change passed through around 9:45 and Ulladulla under a light sea breeze: 18.7 Vs 27.5, just under 9 degrees. The nearest inland station with on-line obs is Nowra at 32.7.

We're going to see some very big temperature drops as that change passes through, maybe 12 degrees or more.

No sign of any showers or storms with the change.

-----

Airport has reached 35, Penrith and Richmond are closing in, 33.4 at OH. Sea breeze at Bellambi has been pushed back.

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#1439769 - 30/10/2017 12:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Yeah Kino, looks as if it will be quite cool for November this week. I doubt there will be too much rain though, it's just dry SW winds which turn SEly on the coast so not a classic easterly rain event. Then as you say it cools further on the weekend.

Steve, Ulladulla now has the southerly, down to 21 now but still fairly dry air with 14C dew point.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1439771 - 30/10/2017 12:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9833
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The change obviously heading my way.

Currently we are about 26 while Orange in 19 or 20.

Even Cowra is only 20

Griffith about 15

More winter like temps through much of Vic.

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#1439773 - 30/10/2017 13:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Plenty of high and dry convection around now. Bit like yesterday.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1439775 - 30/10/2017 13:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
35 at Albion Park; 32 at Bellambi and only 26 at Kiama. Huge thermal gradient.

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#1439781 - 30/10/2017 13:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Fire Weather warning issued about 10 mins ago for the Hunter, Illawarra, Metro and the North West.
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/warnings/fire.shtml
The wind has certainly increased substantially here during the past half an hour.
Currently 33.6 degs here.


Edited by Homer (30/10/2017 13:47)

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#1439783 - 30/10/2017 13:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Change is slowly creeping up the coast now at St Georges Basin - would love to be there right now as you'd see the thermal gradient clearly - you could literally drive 5 mins one way and it'd be hot and dry; and the other way cold and humid (St Georges Basin went from 31 - 20 in ten mins; Nowra on 33).

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#1439784 - 30/10/2017 13:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5286
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Change is slowly creeping up the coast now at St Georges Basin - would love to be there right now as you'd see the thermal gradient clearly - you could literally drive 5 mins one way and it'd be hot and dry; and the other way cold and humid (St Georges Basin went from 31 - 20 in ten mins; Nowra on 33).


Hey, Kino Boy,
Do you have a link for the St Georges basin temp gauge?
Not doubting you at all but just looking for another point of interest when following southerlies.
Cheers.

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#1439785 - 30/10/2017 14:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1266
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Change is slowly creeping up the coast now at St Georges Basin - would love to be there right now as you'd see the thermal gradient clearly - you could literally drive 5 mins one way and it'd be hot and dry; and the other way cold and humid (St Georges Basin went from 31 - 20 in ten mins; Nowra on 33).


Hey, Kino Boy,
Do you have a link for the St Georges basin temp gauge?
Not doubting you at all but just looking for another point of interest when following southerlies.
Cheers.


I'm going off WxZone Pro maps - it may even be Pt Perpendicular (it's a bit hard to see due to clutter).

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