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#1439962 - 31/10/2017 11:40 South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018
fijiweatherwatch Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2016
Posts: 1
The Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity in the 2017-18 TC season within the Regional Specialized Meteorological
Center Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) (Equator to 25˚ South
between 160˚ East and 120˚ West) is anticipated to be below average with moderate confidence. The
official 2017-18 TC Season begins on 1
st November 2017 and ends on 30 April 2018.

TC activity in southern Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Wallis & Futuna Waters is likely to be normal this
season, while there is reduced risk for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and
French Polynesia
. TC activity in the Kiribati and Marquesas area is unlikely.
There is normal risk of severe TCs for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa, while there is reduced risk
for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands and
Tuamotu Archipelago/Gambier Islands
. Severe TC is unlikely in the Marquesas, Pitcairn Islands and Kiribati
regions.


In summary, based on the historical TC data, the predictions for the upcoming 2017-18 TC season are as
follows:
 Below average TC occurrence in the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR in the 2017-18 season is anticipated;
 Four to six (4 to 6) TCs are expected to occur in the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR;
 One to three (1-3) TCs may reach category 3 status or above;
 Normal TC activity is expected for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Wallis & Futuna;
 Reduced TC risk likely for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and French
Polynesia;
 TC activity in the Kiribati and Marquesas area is unlikely;
 There is normal risk of severe TCs for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa;
Reduced risk of severe TCs is anticipated for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook
Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands and Tuamotu Archipelago/Gambier Islands



Edited by fijiweatherwatch (31/10/2017 11:46)
Edit Reason: Highlighting to make for quicker read

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#1442774 - 29/11/2017 20:02 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 143
GFS shows the inclination of Low developing +240hrs off the tip of PNG. A long way out but good to see the potential starting to show up.

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#1452060 - 09/02/2018 21:26 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6789
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Tropical Cyclone GITA just been name.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65661.html
_________________________
Rs tl 2017/18 Wet Season. > tl 03.72mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am p 24 h 27.17mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 6.3mm month 6.3mm / 3.6mm

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#1452388 - 12/02/2018 19:26 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 630
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Gita down to 929hpa already.

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#1452406 - 12/02/2018 22:00 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Mick10 Online   sleepy
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25280
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
reports on facebook the Tonga Met Office has lost its roof.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 814.8mm (1107mm)

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#1452450 - 13/02/2018 09:00 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5091
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Hope it missed them with the absolute worst. Cat 3 winds would be bad enough over there but cat 5 would be devastating

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#1452493 - 13/02/2018 14:16 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Ms Milo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 355
Loc: Angourie, North Coast NSW
Definitely feeling for Tonga at the moment. Curious to see if this system will venture on to East Coast oz.
_________________________
somethings gotta give

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#1452774 - 14/02/2018 23:23 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 487
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
cyclone Gita at this time looks ominous

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#1452792 - 15/02/2018 08:51 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Latest Himawari image
of Gita
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1452799 - 15/02/2018 09:16 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
And from JTWC

Current path projection
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1452835 - 15/02/2018 15:24 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1452839 - 15/02/2018 15:40 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
NASA worldview here
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1452965 - 16/02/2018 06:43 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Latest path prediction
and sat pic


Edited by Knot (16/02/2018 06:48)
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#1453184 - 17/02/2018 16:27 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
A decaying Gita currently around 740nm due east of Bundaberg.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1453239 - 18/02/2018 08:50 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Gita currently approx 570 nm due east of Noosa Heads. Tracking SW at 7 knots. Expected to swing south later today and steered SE sometime tomorrow
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1453255 - 18/02/2018 10:54 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Correction. Gita was forecast to begin track south at 1800 Utc or 0500 AEDT time today and begin a south easterly track at 0600 utc (1700 AEDT) tomorrow.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1453277 - 18/02/2018 14:42 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
As of 2pm AEDT Gita is approx 560nm east of Maroochydore.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1453340 - 19/02/2018 08:57 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
As of 7am AEDT Gita approx 460nm east of Broom Heads. Almost at 30 degree lat and entering Tasman . Speed up to 11knots in a SSW direction. Forecast to begin its turn to SE at 7pm AEDT
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1453365 - 19/02/2018 12:10 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Correction. Forecast to turn to SE at 8pm AEDT. My previous post was in AEST time. Current position per Himawari at 11.50am AEDT. What remains of central eye almost fully in Tasman.


Edited by Knot (19/02/2018 12:14)
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1453390 - 19/02/2018 14:40 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
As of 2pm AEDT Gita is approx 495nm east of Diamond head. Tracking southwards at 17knots
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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