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#1453392 - 19/02/2018 14:54 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7050
That should spin up some decent cyclonic surf but it's still yet to arrive here. Still only 3-4ft and short times between waves which tells me it's not from Gita. Yet.
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#1453403 - 19/02/2018 15:56 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2580
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
The peak swell vector varies for different parts of the coast because of storm rotation and the coastline depth profile in relation to the swell direction. We've all seen cases of one place just bypassed with all those bumps on the horizon, but a few kms away right in the vector. I think tomorrow morning you should see a little size your way WR.
Ps The first waves to arrive a swell propigation are not usually the largest. They may be the cleanest if winds are favourably offshore. Due to the pecking order of waves as they spread from the centre of the disturbance, the 'middle' sorted waves are typically the largest. And taper off as the last sorted waves arrived. The last to arrive following a propigation have shorter periods ie closer together and more frequent.


Edited by Knot (19/02/2018 16:04)
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#1455875 - 06/03/2018 07:46 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Knot]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 961
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
WTPS21 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S 171.5E TO 17.2S 165.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 171.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
172.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 171.1E, APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO OCCUR. A 050958Z
AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH
WITH BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLCC. SST REMAIN WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) AND SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS TRACK
THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWEST AND DEVELOP 97P AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 24.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061400Z.//
NNNN

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#1461136 - 07/04/2018 11:03 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Hailin]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4165
Loc: El Arish
Looks like another on the way for Fiji?



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 062010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13 CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 171.5E
AT 061800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE SECTORS
FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

OVERALL ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH BUT RESISTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=2.0,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 15.7S 171.9E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 16.2S 172.3E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 16.7S 172.9E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 17.4S 174.3E MOV SE AT 04 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070200 UTC.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
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#1461162 - 07/04/2018 17:55 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4165
Loc: El Arish
Not looking good for Fiji if this comes off.



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 070215 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13 CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 171.3E
AT 070000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES
AWAY FROM CENTER IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH.

OVERALL ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST
NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW
FAIR TO THE NORTH BUT RESISTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=2.5,
MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 15.7S 171.8E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 16.0S 172.1E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 16.5S 172.8E MOV SE AT 03 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 17.1S 174.2E MOV ESE AT 04 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070800 UTC.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1461202 - 08/04/2018 11:50 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4165
Loc: El Arish
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:45pm on Sunday the 8th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, VITI
LEVU, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LOMAIVITI AND SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL LAND AREAS AND WATERS OF FIJI.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING/ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information,
refer to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3 SOUTH 170.5 EAST
OR ABOUT 740 KILOMETRES WEST OF NADI AND 760 KILOMETRES WEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA AT
MIDDAY. POSITION FAIR. TD13F IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
AND TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM LATE EVENING TODAY. TD13F IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE FIJI GROUP AND FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE, AN ACTIVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD
AND RAIN REMAINS SLOW MOVING OVER FIJI.

ON THIS TRACK, IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, IT MAY BRING DAMAGING
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN DIVISION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TUESDAY OVER KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI
AND SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.

FOR VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS,
LOMAIVITI AND SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 55 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING FREQUENT FROM LATER TOMORROW. FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 50KM/HR AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 80KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA WATERS, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS, VATU-I-RA PASSAGE,
KADAVU PASSAGE, SOUTHERN KORO SEAS AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
NORTHWEST TO EASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH.
WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH HIGH SEAS AND DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELL FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 08:00 PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20021.txt
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Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1461255 - 09/04/2018 11:54 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4165
Loc: El Arish
Kenny is born.




Special Weather Bulletin Number ELEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:58am on Monday the 9th of April 2018

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU FROM RAKIRAKI
THROUGH NADI TO SERUA INCLUDING THE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA
GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI
AND SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, VANUA LEVU,
TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP.
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF FIJI.
A FLOOD WARNING/ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PARTS OF FIJI. For more information,
refer to the latest Special Weather Bulletin on Flood issued by RSMC, Nadi at
www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20016.txt

TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7 SOUTH 170.7
EAST OR ABOUT 730 KILOMETRES WEST OF NADI AND 660 KILOMETRES WEST OF VIWA AT
9:00 am. POSITION POOR. TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 13 KM/HR. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 75KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100KM/HR. TC KENI IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT MOVES TOWARDS FIJI. MEANWHILE, AN ACTIVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD AND RAIN REMAINS SLOW MOVING OVER FIJI.

ON THIS TRACK, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 410
KM OF WEST OF VIWA OR ABOUT 480 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI AT 9PM TONIGHT AND
ABOUT 150 KM SOUTHWEST OF VIWA OR ABOUT 170KM OF WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 9AM
TOMORROW.

DAMAGING WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD
OR NEARBY.

FOR WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU FROM RAKIRAKI THROUGH NADI TO SERUA INCLUDING THE
INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS:
WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORE WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 75KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100KM/HR FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING FREQUENT FROM TOMORROW. FLOODING, INCLUDING
OF SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI AND SOUTHERN LAU GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO EASTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 55 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE
WINDS FROM MID MORNING TOMORROW. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS, BECOMING FREQUENT FROM TOMORROW.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED
FROM TOMORROW

FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP:
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 50KM/HR AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 80KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA WATERS, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS, VATU-I-RA AND KADAVU
PASSAGES:

EXPECT WINDS OF GALE FORCE AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

FOR SOUTHERN KORO SEAS AND SOUTHERN LAU WATERS:
NORTHWEST TO EASTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH.
WINDS MAY FURTHER INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH HIGH SEAS AND DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELL FROM TOMORROW.

FOR REST OF FIJI WATERS:
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE KENI WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 2:00 PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20021.txt
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1462123 - 19/04/2018 16:32 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 961
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.2S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 180339Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE
LLCC. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
WESTERLIES, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD HOWEVER, THE
MODELS HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

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