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#1439962 - 31/10/2017 11:40 South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018
fijiweatherwatch Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2016
Posts: 1
The Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity in the 2017-18 TC season within the Regional Specialized Meteorological
Center Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre (RSMC Nadi-TCC) Area of Responsibility (AoR) (Equator to 25˚ South
between 160˚ East and 120˚ West) is anticipated to be below average with moderate confidence. The
official 2017-18 TC Season begins on 1
st November 2017 and ends on 30 April 2018.

TC activity in southern Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Wallis & Futuna Waters is likely to be normal this
season, while there is reduced risk for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and
French Polynesia
. TC activity in the Kiribati and Marquesas area is unlikely.
There is normal risk of severe TCs for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa, while there is reduced risk
for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands and
Tuamotu Archipelago/Gambier Islands
. Severe TC is unlikely in the Marquesas, Pitcairn Islands and Kiribati
regions.


In summary, based on the historical TC data, the predictions for the upcoming 2017-18 TC season are as
follows:
 Below average TC occurrence in the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR in the 2017-18 season is anticipated;
 Four to six (4 to 6) TCs are expected to occur in the RSMC Nadi-TCC AoR;
 One to three (1-3) TCs may reach category 3 status or above;
 Normal TC activity is expected for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Wallis & Futuna;
 Reduced TC risk likely for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook Islands and French
Polynesia;
 TC activity in the Kiribati and Marquesas area is unlikely;
 There is normal risk of severe TCs for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa;
Reduced risk of severe TCs is anticipated for Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Cook
Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands and Tuamotu Archipelago/Gambier Islands



Edited by fijiweatherwatch (31/10/2017 11:46)
Edit Reason: Highlighting to make for quicker read

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#1442774 - 29/11/2017 20:02 Re: South Pacific Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: fijiweatherwatch]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 118
GFS shows the inclination of Low developing +240hrs off the tip of PNG. A long way out but good to see the potential starting to show up.

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