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#1439952 - 31/10/2017 09:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2451
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Just as I say there will be no rain all week, Sydney is starting to get some, LOL


Its why I never write off a pure southerly airstream. They always tend to surprise with the occasional coast-riding shower.

It's so freaking cold today after yesterday's 36 frown Bellambi currently 'feels like' 6.7

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#1439955 - 31/10/2017 10:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
I write them off for Wollongong but Sydney does tend to get them because it's further east than us. I would say we won't receive rain all week but Sydney may get some very coastal showers.


Edited by Wave Rider (31/10/2017 10:49)
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#1439956 - 31/10/2017 11:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1160
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Very refreshing SW change today, not that cold up here either.
This is a genuine southerly buster, so has somewhat of a nostalgic feel, as we don't get a lot.

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#1439958 - 31/10/2017 11:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1160
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Still tracking well above average for October overall, which is good after last year's rut of cool weather in October, more than 2/3 of days below average then.
Average max 26.8C, above the long term average of 25C.

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#1439965 - 31/10/2017 12:18 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4315
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Cool, bright and sunny. It looks like that blob of cloud and rain is headed for places further North.

For October, Sydney OH will finish close to 16.0 - 24.0, very close to the average - for November. For October, it's about 2 above (1961-90).

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#1439967 - 31/10/2017 14:06 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Same as here Steve, temp about 19 with gusty winds and plenty of sunshine. Actually quite a pleasant day really. Obviously not as nice as yesterday though. Although I wouldn't have wanted it too much hotter than that. Around 30C is pretty much the best temp for me.

I assume tomorrow will also be fairly sunny.


Edited by Wave Rider (31/10/2017 14:08)
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1439974 - 31/10/2017 15:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice n cool overnight here, about 4 with a cool breeze all night - felt lovely actually to be snuggy under a quilt smile

Cool breeze out here but no hiding the sun strength if standing in it!!

About 17 or 18 here but feels warmer in the sun. Cool in the shade.

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#1439978 - 31/10/2017 15:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Nice n cool overnight here, about 4 with a cool breeze all night - felt lovely actually to be snuggy under a quilt smile

Cool breeze out here but no hiding the sun strength if standing in it!!

About 17 or 18 here but feels warmer in the sun. Cool in the shade.


That sure is cold for a breezy night! Lucky I wasn't up in Bowral today, I noticed it was 5 at some point this morning with quite a strong wind.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1439982 - 31/10/2017 17:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5920
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Warming up quickly today, already 27C at 8:40am. Should get past 30 within the next hour or two.

Looks like the cold front that is coming will be the coldest since about mid-September in terms of 850mb temps.


What are your thoughts re storm chances this afternoon WR?


The W/NWly today will likely be too dry to produce anything. I would say there is a small chance of storms right on the coast with the southerly change this afternoon though. They will mainly be out to sea so there might be some flashes tonight from really fast moving storms.




I have to give a massive thumbs up to WR here now.
His forecast for the storms yesterday afternoon (his post was at 8.40 am) was absolutely spot on and played out just as he said. Brilliant stuff Reilly.

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#1439983 - 31/10/2017 17:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
He's certainly keen on his weather smile

Might get pretty damn close to a frost tonight around here.

Forecast is 3, some areas here regularly get colder than Bx forecast.

Beware tomato's smile

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#1439989 - 31/10/2017 19:47 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Thanks guys, I appreciate your kind words Homer but I would only say I was right because I had the time yesterday morning to analyse the models which I did for about 20 mins. There are so many more times where I'm wrong haha!

A few little coldie showers and storms forming in the ST's under that cold pool I mentioned this morning.
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#1439990 - 31/10/2017 20:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2822
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Lane Cove about an hour ago.

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#1440000 - 31/10/2017 22:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5920
Loc: Dural
Beautiful shot CS!

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#1440002 - 31/10/2017 23:15 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2451
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Nice showers here, radar looks goood to the south too. Southerly usually delivers for the coastal strip at night. Won’t be more than a few mm but bettter than zilch.

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#1440005 - 31/10/2017 23:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5920
Loc: Dural
Kino.
They are actually coastal showers with a SSW'erly.
Good effort.

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#1440006 - 01/11/2017 00:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Yeah a few annoying heavy showr when I Wwas partying tonight, still that pesky cold pool in action then I guess.

It aint the southerly that's causing it, just the cold pool causing convective showers because they aren't coming from the coast anyway. I suspected that but admittedly didn't expet them to fire to so late in the night.

I agree good job kino pat on the back for you mate

Forecasting is always a gamble no matter what, when it really comes down to it no one really is better than another person.! I'm mean lets face we're all weather nerds at the end of the day!!!!

ps brilliant pic


Edited by Wave Rider (01/11/2017 00:32)
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#1440015 - 01/11/2017 07:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Sorry for my lack of restraint there last night..

Anyway another decently cold morning (considering there was a breeze) with a min of 11.5C and just 4 at Moss Vale. Plenty of mid-level cloud around this morning but no low cloud around.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1440025 - 01/11/2017 09:44 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Another fresh morning, 3.1 at the airport.

Orange airport 0.5

Southern areas have some negs - especially the Snowies.

Full sun out here with a breeze from around the SSE region.

Actually had a few very light rain drops on some leaves outside my window during the night - only light and fairly brief I think. Certainly not enough to measure in a gauge.

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#1440027 - 01/11/2017 09:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2451
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
Kino.
They are actually coastal showers with a SSW'erly.
Good effort.


Not going to labor the point, but the steering flow was a southerly wrapping around the deep low smile


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#1440028 - 01/11/2017 10:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2451
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Holy moley there's a real battle of the models coming up for this weekend - WRF, ACCESS & EC all going for a pretty substantial rainfall event, starting Friday night and peaking Monday.

GFS & CMC not interested at all.

Edit: 18z GFS now onboard as well, with 25-50mm forecast.

Rainfall accumulations over that period are progged anywhere from 20 - 100mm for Eastern NSW. Metro and Illawarra could see 20-50mm with isolated pockets up to 100mm if ACCESS plays out. Even ECD is keen for a change.

Sad news is that it'll be bitterly cold with top temps again only in the mid to late teens.


Edited by Kino (01/11/2017 10:29)

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