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#1440152 - 02/11/2017 22:22 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looks like it - BoM going for 25-100mm for large swathe of the Coast on Monday.

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#1440156 - 03/11/2017 08:12 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
I don't see any 100mm forecasts on Monday, Kino where are you getting that from?

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#1440161 - 03/11/2017 09:00 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Even at this point, models still not overly agreeable on amounts/timing around here, however, it seems that somewhere in the next 4 or 5 days we will get wet - I will take that smile

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#1440162 - 03/11/2017 09:02 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
I don't see any 100mm forecasts on Monday, Kino where are you getting that from?




Edited by Kino (03/11/2017 09:04)

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#1440164 - 03/11/2017 09:11 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
big brown hole straight over the lower hunter....standard.

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#1440165 - 03/11/2017 09:12 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
big brown hole straight over the lower hunter....standard.


Take that with a grain of salt; I'm yet to check overnight runs. They're in a state of flux which worries me.

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#1440166 - 03/11/2017 09:15 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
true, Access at least doesnt look too bad around here tonight and tomorrow and for another squirt on Monday.

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#1440167 - 03/11/2017 09:21 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
true, Access at least doesnt look too bad around here tonight and tomorrow and for another squirt on Monday.


Agree - and ACCESS-T differs to ACCESS-C lol.

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#1440169 - 03/11/2017 10:02 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
GR, you deserve that big brown hole, after all you lot seemed to get all the rain in that last episode...

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#1440170 - 03/11/2017 10:23 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: DaveM]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1557
Loc: Cooks Gap - Kingsgrove NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Even at this point, models still not overly agreeable on amounts/timing around here, however, it seems that somewhere in the next 4 or 5 days we will get wet - I will take that smile


You and me both Dave. Have you had anything down your way at all? Really, really dry up here. frown

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#1440173 - 03/11/2017 10:37 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Rainbow Spirit
GR, you deserve that big brown hole, after all you lot seemed to get all the rain in that last episode...


numpty comment mate. 2 and half years of very average rainfall, and very sick dams means I will take whatever comes my way. A couple of heavy downpours have greened the grass but no more. It would be nice to see everyone in eastern NSW get some nice rain, but if you think this area "deserves" to get no rain because we had a drop last week thats pretty dumb.

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#1440174 - 03/11/2017 10:44 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Pretty sure he's got his tongue firmly in his cheek Gringos smile

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#1440175 - 03/11/2017 10:45 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
maybe...

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#1440177 - 03/11/2017 11:22 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well, least EC is still keen:


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#1440178 - 03/11/2017 11:33 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
GR it was a joke mate, I hope we all get a good drop out of this event, we really need some decent rain to make up for the crap winter we all had.

Every time I looked at the radar in that last miserable event, the Hunter seemed to be under a rain bearing cloud, whilst down here in western Sydney we seemed to have a pittance.


Edited by Rainbow Spirit (03/11/2017 11:33)

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#1440185 - 03/11/2017 11:53 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
all good. Drought and dry are very raw topics around here, and "deserves" was a bit salty. Lets hope something pays up because thismodel disagreement this close to the event isnt confidence building.

I dont really like the look of the high pressure systems over eastern Australia either....they still are ridging strongly, it seems like decades now since there was a propensity for a trough to deepen down the NSW coast or ranges. I would be really hoping a cool neutral year or weak la nina would be perfect for setting up troughy type storm events in eastern NSW. There has been times with forecasts for afternoon storms most days for weeks or months in past seasons but I havent seen this since early 2000's now. This stupid ridge just races up the coast time and again and just triangle shape back to the heat trough in WA. It used to look like a upside down horseshoe with troughs on either side of the country and a high in the bight in the warm season....Arvo storms that reached the coast regularly.

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#1440187 - 03/11/2017 12:33 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Max - we actually had our average rain in October - 59mm - the best in a very very long time.

It is now green here but the soil has soaked any moisture up, the rush of growth has probably drawn any free soil moisture up as well.

It will take a number of rain episodes to find any ongoing moisture in the soil.

Fingers crossed, same as many in here.

It has become very cloudy out here this arvo. It looks almost good enough for a shower but I don't think anything meaningful is likely today out here.

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#1440188 - 03/11/2017 12:51 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
As I said in another post, we all really need around 100mm minimum to get back onto some sought of even keel, hopefully that 100mm would come down in an even gentle soaking, what we don't need is a torrential downpour with lots of exposed dry soil that will wash away in the first downpour.

Yes, the grass is greening from that last miserable bit of rain (37mm in total here), but things have a habit of swinging back to dry conditions very quickly.

Monday looks to be the go day, fingers crossed...

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#1440193 - 03/11/2017 14:30 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Event is starting here - dark skies and precip over the Macquarie Pass area! Could even get a rumble.

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#1440198 - 03/11/2017 16:45 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
18 here but yet 28 degrees in the Gong. That's quite a difference!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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