Page 1 of 15 1 2 3 ... 14 15 >
Topic Options
#1440031 - 01/11/2017 10:53 Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
All models now are bullish for a decent rain, embedded storms and for NE NSW possible severe storms as a decent surface trough, followed by a cold change and upper cold pool move across over the weekend and into next week.

Widespread rain looks likely east of the ranges; with heavier falls along the costal strip and into NE NSW. Coastal embedded storms for Central Coast, Metro and Illawarra are possible with severe storms possible for NE NSW.

Rainfall totals vary at this stage; but coastal areas look good for 25 - 70mm with isolated falls to 100mm over the period. Heavier falls look likely for NE NSW with storms. Hail is also possible with storms and coastal NSW (mainly Monday as the u-pper cold pool moves across).

Hopefully models will lock in this afternoon.

e.g. here's coastal Illawarra forecast:



Edited by Seabreeze (05/11/2017 20:31)
Edit Reason: added year

Top
#1440040 - 01/11/2017 12:45 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The weather patterns have certainly changed in the last couple of weeks, with highs further South, especially in the Bight, a weaker Tasman High and frequent troughs and lows developing to the North of the high pressure belt. This pattern actually reminds me of December 2011, which as I recall featured persistent winds in the SE quarter, regular (but not excessive) rainfall, a complete lack of heat but which was fairly good for thunderstorms.

It's actually not that uncommon for seasons to appear to go into reverse in late Spring in our part of the world when we flip into a more maritime pattern. October: "if it's this hot know, just imagine what will Summer be like?", December (plaintively) "Where's Summer?".

Hasn't happened as strongly lately, but October in Sydney was warmer for maxima than November in:
2013 (exceptionally hot October)
2007 (also December, cool Summer to follow)
2005 (followed by very hot December and average Jan-Feb)
1998, 1999, 2001
Several times in 1989s/90s. In 1988 the October max was nearly 3 degrees warmer than Nov and nearly 1 warmer than Dec.


Edited by Steve777 (01/11/2017 12:51)
Edit Reason: Typo

Top
#1440052 - 01/11/2017 14:35 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The weather patterns have certainly changed in the last couple of weeks, with highs further South, especially in the Bight, a weaker Tasman High and frequent troughs and lows developing to the North of the high pressure belt. This pattern actually reminds me of December 2011, which as I recall featured persistent winds in the SE quarter, regular (but not excessive) rainfall, a complete lack of heat but which was fairly good for thunderstorms.

It's actually not that uncommon for seasons to appear to go into reverse in late Spring in our part of the world when we flip into a more maritime pattern. October: "if it's this hot know, just imagine what will Summer be like?", December (plaintively) "Where's Summer?".

Hasn't happened as strongly lately, but October in Sydney was warmer for maxima than November in:
2013 (exceptionally hot October)
2007 (also December, cool Summer to follow)
2005 (followed by very hot December and average Jan-Feb)
1998, 1999, 2001
Several times in 1989s/90s. In 1988 the October max was nearly 3 degrees warmer than Nov and nearly 1 warmer than Dec.


While not really on topic; I don't mind if we don't see warmth if see see plenty of rain tbh grin

Waiting for the PM runs to see what they think re: this weekend. ACCESS C should start to pick up on it you'd think given ACCESS G bullish nature of last night.

Edit: It's in; liking quite a dump overnight Thursday into Friday around Illawarra & Metro areas.



Edited by Kino (01/11/2017 14:40)

Top
#1440055 - 01/11/2017 15:11 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Good thread start Kino.
Looking good for a nice follow up drenching to last weeks falls.

Top
#1440066 - 01/11/2017 16:38 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
BOM aren't very bullish about this. Yet.
Only going for less than 15 mm's for the period this afternoon.


Edited by Homer (01/11/2017 16:39)

Top
#1440071 - 01/11/2017 17:36 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Big change from models a few days ago for sure. Looking quite decent although uncertain as to amounts and exactly when it will happen. (for example ACCESS going for rain tomorrow night/Fri morning but GFS saying nothing).

Will be interesting to see what happens, especially as GFS has a low bombing off the coast on Monday too! If that comes closer to the coast there could be some very decent falls. About time we got a proper ECL.

PS: The weekend looks cold as mentioned but gee whiz next week looks even colder!!


Edited by Wave Rider (01/11/2017 17:45)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1440087 - 01/11/2017 22:05 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 813
Loc: Cammeray
This forecast is pure filth at this point.

I'm also confused at the difference between the Obs Hlil and Richmond forecasts for early next week. The city looks stuck around 22C but the west is up to 28C. This feels quite unusual at these temps and with cloud and rain featuring.


Edited by Jimi (01/11/2017 22:13)

Top
#1440088 - 01/11/2017 22:58 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Jimi]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Jimi
This forecast is pure filth at this point. .


Huh?

This evenings forecast has upgraded for Friday rainfall totals and maintains unsettled conditions right into next week.

EC with a MASSIVE upgrade!

https://imgur.com/gallery/hJ1LD


Edited by Kino (01/11/2017 23:06)

Top
#1440102 - 02/11/2017 09:24 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Sorry bout that link, Imgur on iPad is useless.



This was EC last night - fairly bullish for EC!


Edited by Kino (02/11/2017 09:25)

Top
#1440105 - 02/11/2017 09:32 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 813
Loc: Cammeray
The BOM seems to have fixed the massive discrepancies between the coast and the west early next week. That was really odd, like they were drawing off different models.

Top
#1440106 - 02/11/2017 09:36 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Jimi]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Jimi
The BOM seems to have fixed the massive discrepancies between the coast and the west early next week. That was really odd, like they were drawing off different models.



Ahhh I see, thanks for the clarification. Hoping EC comes off grin

Top
#1440107 - 02/11/2017 09:37 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Jimi]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1868
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Jimi
This forecast is pure filth at this point.

Agree. Sadly, this part of the world inevitably gets a spell of this crap during Spring.

Top
#1440110 - 02/11/2017 10:22 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 172
Loc: Summer Hill (Sydney)
I can't wait for some more rain, would love a solid week of rainy days - I think I am still traumatised from the disgustingly dry winter we just had haha.

Wish some humidity would hurry up and build, getting over the low humidity days too.

Top
#1440112 - 02/11/2017 10:32 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Latest model spread (sorry Imagur is being an ass - they are resized frown ):















Edited by Kino (02/11/2017 10:32)

Top
#1440134 - 02/11/2017 15:32 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Thanks for posting all those charts Kino.
Fair bit of divergence there but I suspect they'll start coming together in the next day or so.
At the very least, they all agree on some reasonable rain - a good follow up to last week and further replenishing soil moisture.

Top
#1440135 - 02/11/2017 15:46 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW ACCESS C has upgraded again, but focuses event to start more Friday night into Staurday morning (end of run). 18z GFS also agrees. So maybe we’re starting to see a consensus develop?

Top
#1440136 - 02/11/2017 15:53 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Hope so.

Top
#1440140 - 02/11/2017 17:13 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
BOM slowly getting on board, as expected, and increasing precipitation forecasts.

Top
#1440144 - 02/11/2017 19:31 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8329
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Regardless of what any model says, things will be becoming super wet either way. Patterns are changing, everything is aligning. How wet it gets where is the tricky question. It appears a few systems will be coming through within the next few days to start things off

Top
#1440151 - 02/11/2017 22:21 Re: Trough + Upper Cold Pool - widespread rain & storms 3/11 - 7/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 475
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
Five straight days of rain? Beautiful, if it happens.

Top
Page 1 of 15 1 2 3 ... 14 15 >


Who's Online
8 registered (WANDJINA G'vale, Sidney, willitrainagain, Kino, Steve777, ThunderBob, Cheers, TindraTim), 349 Guests and 2 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
avalon, philiphart, Ravenous2411, Sasho
Forum Stats
29421 Members
32 Forums
23735 Topics
1469485 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image