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#1440095 - 02/11/2017 09:00 SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Much of the thunderstorm risk this weekend/early next week looks like being confined to southern & western parts of our region at first (until the change gets closer).... and possible morning cloud cover/precip on some of the days could complicate things.

Tuesday will depend on how early or late the change surges through so the end date of this thread is open to change.

Instability generally looks greater during the later part of this period.

Persistent upper troughing over the southeast of the continent should destabilise the atmosphere over us.
The shear doesn't look too shabby though so that could encourage more organised severe cells in the more favourable areas.

Here's a GFS meteogram for Brisbane:




Edited by Seabreeze (07/11/2017 22:05)
Edit Reason: removed chance and replaced it with Severe to reflect what has happened

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#1440099 - 02/11/2017 09:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Need to change thread title to November.

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#1440100 - 02/11/2017 09:11 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Done. Thanks for letting me know. Jesus why do I keep doing that!

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#1440101 - 02/11/2017 09:14 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 299
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I can't believe it's November already either crazy
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#1440104 - 02/11/2017 09:31 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1293
Loc: Australia
Ken is there any other model other than GFS that plots thunderstorm forecast maps that shows the thunderstorm severity risk, not so much the rainfall?

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#1440108 - 02/11/2017 09:43 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Ken is there any other model other than GFS that plots thunderstorm forecast maps that shows the thunderstorm severity risk, not so much the rainfall?
No model directly forecasts thunderstorm risk or severity unless it's one whose cloud physics are specifically designed to simulate things like charge build-up's leading to lightning, etc.

Any maps showing thunderstorm risk have to use certain parameters or algorithms derived from the raw model data to infer the development of storms.

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#1440109 - 02/11/2017 09:54 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1293
Loc: Australia
Thanks for that Ken

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#1440129 - 02/11/2017 14:48 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: gleno71]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1878
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I wish the southerly change would come at the right time for once...

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#1440131 - 02/11/2017 14:52 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Done. Thanks for letting me know. Jesus why do I keep doing that!


Haha! lol.
Didn't want to sound like a smart arse. Just correcting a small technical detail.
Thanks for all the info you provide.

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#1440154 - 02/11/2017 22:40 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 512
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Onto it again Ken cool


Trough in close to coast for mid monday, 'at this stage' ,,, ?
Looking on with interest !!
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#1440192 - 03/11/2017 14:04 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looks to be a lot of instability, in the form of severe storms down in NSW for Monday, but how much makes it up to southern Queensland remains to be seen. Looks to bypass the Southern Downs at this point in time, but still way early in the game. Let us hope for a good drop of rain here, as it is badly needed...
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1440268 - 04/11/2017 20:42 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10204
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Storms built up on the ranges and quickly replaced the sunny skies this afternoon, moving in with some speed toward the coast. 4.0mm since 9am here, mostly from a fast-moving storm late this afternoon. A thunderstorm south of here moving through the Lower Macleay (taken just outside of town) -


Read a report on MNC Emergency Situations FB: "Absolute carnage at Upper Rollands Plains. Hail, rain, wind and trees down everywhere. Be careful if driving out here. Lots of debris on roads". A storm was almost maxing out on the radar as it hit that locality -


Port - https://instagram.com/p/BbD3SepD6_G
Port Airport received 15.2mm in 10 minutes (3:30pm to 3:40pm).
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2017 Rainfall: 90.2mm (Nov Avg. 115.9mm) // November 2017 Raindays: 17 (Nov Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1458.0mm (Yearly Avg. 1491.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 145 (Yearly Avg. 137.4 raindays)

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#1440286 - 04/11/2017 23:22 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 344
Loc: NE NSW
A warm day averaging 28C, fairly clear skies with the mares tails a-flying...also lots of my storm bird mates going off yesterday morning and today. Some thunder and about three raindrops came our way late this afternoon. But the stormbirds (and Ken's charts!) give me hope that something more substantial is on the way smile


Edited by Mamma Tus (04/11/2017 23:22)
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#1440295 - 05/11/2017 08:45 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4329
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.2mm from early morning showers.
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Wyn Nth 2017-Jan107.6(158),Feb24.4(149),Mar410.2(123),Apr8.8(98),May32.2(101),Jun91.4(75),Jul16.6(57),Aug6.4(45),Sep4.2(33),Oct217.4(93),Nov62.0,YTD981.4(1043.4)

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#1440307 - 05/11/2017 11:29 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
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Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I might have been pushing it a bit in hoping for 50mm out this way over the next 3 days, but it is still possible. Storm potential in these parts looks low, perhaps due to the extra cloud cover and rain? After the systems moves through, we enjoy much cooler conditions again for the next 4-5 days at least, with ridging and SE winds. I know I complain about lack of rain, but the cooler temps are a bonus!
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1440331 - 05/11/2017 14:44 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 344
Loc: NE NSW
Cooler one today, and probably too much cloud cover for storm cooking...

Ah well, maybe tomorrow...
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"Clouds are the sky's imagination." ~Terri Guillemets

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#1440332 - 05/11/2017 15:16 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Mamma Tus]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4683
Originally Posted By: Mamma Tus
Cooler one today, and probably too much cloud cover for storm cooking...

Ah well, maybe tomorrow...

There was a lot of cloud cover earlier but that broke up and there's since been more than enough solar heating over much of the region - see below image from Weatherzone. Still looking today's storms will mainly like the southern & western parts though.

The EC ensemble graph below for Brisbane also still showing the majority of its forecast members are going for the double peaks in instability Monday and perhaps Tuesday depending on the timing of the change (the graph shows mixed layer CAPE, not the more standard surface based CAPE which typically tends to have higher values):





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#1440333 - 05/11/2017 15:23 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Cloudy and cool down here in Bellingen with ongoing thunder for the last couple of hours. Got about 6 hours of thunder yesterday. Does not take that much heat, trust me smile

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#1440334 - 05/11/2017 15:38 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2931
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Has been not too bad hear in Logan, abit of cloud cover in the morning have been watching cumulus but looking towards the scenic rim as things are probably going to be abit slow moving not too sure about coastal capping seabreeze seems to be very light.

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#1440338 - 05/11/2017 16:06 Re: SEQLD/NENSW - Severe T/storms (mainly in S) - 4th-7th Nov 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 778
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Must be nice to be in Karrara. They have had a very active few weeks of storms! A nice borderline hail producing cell on their doorstep again.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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