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#1440044 - 01/11/2017 13:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mega Offline
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Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7016
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Six months. Looks close to el nino than la nina to me.


From what I understand, ENSO is at its least influence through the winter...of course most of the country was dry given the +IOD.

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#1440045 - 01/11/2017 13:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Raindammit Offline
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I think as well, as a La Nina was not present over those months - why would you expect such a chart to show La Nina rainfall patterns?
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#1440046 - 01/11/2017 13:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
Originally Posted By: Mega
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber


Six months. Looks close to el nino than la nina to me.


From what I understand, ENSO is at its least influence through the winter...of course most of the country was dry given the +IOD.


Exactly, and the + SAM probably had a lot do with the dry in the south of the country too. That dry bit in the NW of the country is clearly IOD driven.
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#1440048 - 01/11/2017 14:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Raindammit]
KevD Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5193
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
I think as well, as a La Nina was not present over those months - why would you expect such a chart to show La Nina rainfall patterns?

Yep, with you on this one. Mike you diminish the rest of your arguments when you post something like that. A recently developing La Nina (regardless of whether it really kicks in or not) is going to always be partially lost in a 6 month chart. One month of La Nina impact will always be hidden amongst another 5 months of drier conditions.
With this one the biggest thing for me right now is the quick-developing warmer waters in the west. While we are still debating how this event will unfold, the follow up looks like it is already starting to show:


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#1440049 - 01/11/2017 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
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Loc: Kingaroy
If this event is like the 1954 to 1957 La Nina then it could get very wet indeed.

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#1440051 - 01/11/2017 14:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: KevD
With this one the biggest thing for me right now is the quick-developing warmer waters in the west. While we are still debating how this event will unfold, the follow up looks like it is already starting to show:


That subsurface chart is interesting for sure; what're your thoughts on it? I couldn't quite understand your comment. Cheers.

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#1440053 - 01/11/2017 14:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
mammatus meestrus Offline
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Registered: 20/11/2008
Posts: 49
Loc: lennox head
The difference between this year and last year this time couldn't be more stark.

We just had a monsoonal downpour as a little storm cell ran into a moist coastal airstream.
Cumulus towers out to sea, warm inshore water temps.

Moisture in the sub-soil.

There's no doubt a La Nina pattern has already kicked in.

Only question now is whether that last passage of the MJO was enough to stall it's progress.

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#1440054 - 01/11/2017 14:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: mammatus meestrus]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
The difference between this year and last year this time couldn't be more stark.

We just had a monsoonal downpour as a little storm cell ran into a moist coastal airstream.
Cumulus towers out to sea, warm inshore water temps.

Moisture in the sub-soil.

There's no doubt a La Nina pattern has already kicked in.

Only question now is whether that last passage of the MJO was enough to stall it's progress.


Agree - One check of the models and you can see a change in our patterns already - and looking at last months temp anomalies; for QLD mainly; and you can see daytime temps are well down on previous month and below average for some places; and night times are well above indicative of extensive cloud cover etc.

The cold tongue continues to push west; now west of 160E, however it does have a few warm ulcers on it - maybe time for some easterly strepsils to take care of them grin



Edit: I'm liking those colder anomalies in the Southern Ocean; should help anchor highs down there and allow more penetration of easterlies and ne'erlies into eastern Australia.


Edited by Kino (01/11/2017 14:56)

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#1440057 - 01/11/2017 16:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Mega


From what I understand, ENSO is at its least influence through the winter...of course most of the country was dry given the +IOD.


IOD was neutral during winter.



Winter impact of ENSO is quite substantial



Compared to Spring:


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#1440058 - 01/11/2017 16:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interesting variation between 1998/99 and now:
- clearly the cold tongue was much colder and larger then;
- both have colder Southern Oceans;
- Tasman Sea is much warmer now;
- eastern Indian much colder now; and
- northern Pacific colder then but southern Pacific colder now.


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#1440059 - 01/11/2017 16:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Raindammit]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
I think as well, as a La Nina was not present over those months - why would you expect such a chart to show La Nina rainfall patterns?


Warm ENSO conditions were present and I would not expect La Nina rainfall patterns to be evident.

Was an el nino present? I'd say no. If an el nino event can not be argued on the basis of 6 months of dry conditions, then how can a la nina be argued on the basis of 1 month of wet conditions?

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#1440060 - 01/11/2017 16:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5193
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Everyone acknowledges that this La Nina is very late forming - so it's impact on the winter season is also going to be thus limited.

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#1440062 - 01/11/2017 16:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Mega


From what I understand, ENSO is at its least influence through the winter...of course most of the country was dry given the +IOD.


IOD was neutral during winter.



Winter impact of ENSO is quite substantial



Compared to Spring:



1. IOD

BoM say it reached positive values during winter, but was always warm-neutral from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Indian-Ocean -

2. ENSO - clearly not in a La Nina mode during winter or even close:



3. MJO which was predicted to wipe out cold tongue:

Originally Posted By: BoM
Over the past week the convective phase of the MJO activity has moved quietly east of the dateline . A pattern of suppressed convection has moved into the Indian Ocean region and will be over Australian longitudes later this week. When the MJO is over the eastern Pacific and Americas at this time of year, northern Australia usually sees an increase in daytime temperatures, including a higher chance of extreme temperatures (highest 10% of records). Accordingly, a low-intensity to severe heatwave is forecast for the tropical north this week (see http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave/).

International models agree the MJO will weaken by early next week, as it continues eastward. When the MJO is weak (or indiscernible) it typically does not contribute to tropical weather. See the Bureau's current MJO monitoring for more information.


Edited by Kino (01/11/2017 16:12)

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#1440063 - 01/11/2017 16:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
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Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18406
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: mammatus meestrus
hard to argue with that map.


Someone will likely try .


Told ya ! laugh
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#1440069 - 01/11/2017 16:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino

3. MJO which was predicted to wipe out cold tongue:


Nino 3.4 rose from -0.51 to -0.29 and nino 3 from -0.63 to -0.43 last week (BOM, 23rd to 29th Oct). Judging by current obs and forecast my best guess is that nino 3.4 will be pretty close to 0 for the current week, but nino 3 might is going to struggle to reach 0.

Compared to your prediction:

Quote:
I don't think the westerly anomalies, now that you clarified them, will be sufficient and/or impact ENSO zones,

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#1440074 - 01/11/2017 18:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7016
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I think this looks very La-Nina like, tbh:



Can clearly see where the warm, humid airmass from the tropics interacts with the mid-latitudes to produce the heaviest rainfall. Meanwhile the equatorial CPAC & EPAC are dry dry dry. Classic La-Nina imo. It would be the complete opposite in an El-Nino.

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#1440093 - 02/11/2017 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
Not La Nina like:



Surface temps above 0 on the equator has reached the mid point of nino 3.4, so nino 3.4 as measured by TAO would now be pretty close to 0.

Note TAO has lower resolution than satellites, uses a 5 day average and applies significant smoothing, so that the individual cool and warm spots detected in equatorial eddies by satellite are averaged out.

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#1440114 - 02/11/2017 10:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
The subsurface is looking healthy and looks to be getting even colder, are they still predicting a -PDO?

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#1440115 - 02/11/2017 11:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The subsurface is looking healthy and looks to be getting even colder, are they still predicting a -PDO?


This is from NCEP/NOAA on Oct 10:


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#1440119 - 02/11/2017 13:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: KevD]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7466
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: KevD
Everyone acknowledges that this La Nina is very late forming - so it's impact on the winter season is also going to be thus limited.

Might want to qualify the "everyone" bit ... smile .

There is no such thing as a "normal" ENSO phase, just variations within a range of scenarios.


Edited by Seira (02/11/2017 13:43)
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