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#1440142 - 02/11/2017 18:59 North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Been a good stormy buildup into November, alas no storms on the coast. been north, south and west, just no luck.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1440184 - 03/11/2017 11:52 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Has been a little different to last year though, storms seem to be teasing us a bit more at least.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1440863 - 09/11/2017 08:18 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 85
Loc: Bushland Beach
4mm in gauge this morning at bushy beach

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#1440869 - 09/11/2017 09:09 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
1mm in BG.

Looks like the city could get some of that shower activity approaching from the SE.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1440891 - 09/11/2017 16:31 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
missing us by that much........... as usual

excellent area of convergence has formed, just 15km too far north. cant win.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1440920 - 10/11/2017 09:17 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
GrannyK Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2011
Posts: 85
Loc: Bushland Beach
8.5mm in gauge this morning at bushy beach

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#1441104 - 13/11/2017 19:17 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4385
Loc: Wynnum
Some of you in Townsville maybe remember me - Retired Weather Man. I worked with BoM in Townsville from 1986 before retiring and then moving to Brisbane in late 2011.

A big reason for joining BoM in the 1960's was as a result of my Science teacher enlightening me on the work of the late Inigo Jones who passed away in 1953 but looked into a possible relationship between solar activity and Eastern Australian rainfall, particularly north of about 30 deg S.

From the early 1900's he made various seasonal predictions based on this theory to give the farming community some hope with the long running Federation Drought. A large percentage of his predictions came good and he was known as " The Farmers Friend ".

At the time BoM did not enhance his theory at all and made that clear to me should I wish to continue with that organization. However I continued to look into it " on the quiet ". Now in retirement I have continued to look into any possible relationship.

A couple of months ago I published a comparison between solar activity and rainfall district 40 which covers South East Qld in the ESNO thread. There were some "tie ups" but in general nothing too conclusive.

I have looked into a Townsville comparison, because Townsville is uniquely placed to be not influenced by stream showers which boosts annual totals as occurs to its north and south, due to the coastline orientation and proximity of ranges. Normally I would have looked at the whole district as I did with SEQ.

The "tie up" is a lot better than SEQ as can be seen from the graph. There are few large hiccups - namely 1913, 1933,1975,2008-10, but in general not bad. Month by month data comparisons were too unwieldy so I averaged data out over an annual basis. I looked into the SOI as well, but comparisons were all over the place. The PDO saw a better result but available data did not go back far enough.

I looked onto the Top End of the NT and NW WA too, but comparisons were not as good as the Townsville region.

Anyway have a look at the graph.






Edited by retired weather man (13/11/2017 19:19)
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan10.8(158)YTD10.8(158),

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#1441106 - 13/11/2017 19:54 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weary Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2014
Posts: 965
Loc: Edge Hill, Cairns
Correlation does not imply causation
_________________________
Love petrichor

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#1441107 - 13/11/2017 20:31 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
dormant Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 580
Loc: near ferry, FNQ
It does help to keep the thread active...whatever one postulates.

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#1441120 - 14/11/2017 00:12 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 417
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Rwm, it's good to see someone doing this kind of analysis. Thanks for posting.
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1441121 - 14/11/2017 00:21 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
awesome effort RWM, great to hear from you too mate. hope all is well down there. great to see Junior excelling in his photography on FB.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1441814 - 20/11/2017 23:00 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
everything from the west has died this evening, everything building from the east at the surface is getting blown back out to sea as it builds height.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1441843 - 21/11/2017 09:06 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
all north of us yet again overnight. while everything to the west died. just another day.

looking very unstable today though, anything forming inland will fly east towards the coast. looking likely to get heavy showers off the coast too.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1441880 - 21/11/2017 14:42 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 658
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Getting smashed with heavy rain in Charters Towers right now. My yard is flooded. smile

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#1441881 - 21/11/2017 14:43 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
could only be so lucky here Wezza, had 5min of light rain, gone now.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1441882 - 21/11/2017 14:54 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 658
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Fingers crossed Townsville gets some in the next few days if not today mate. Still going here, hasn't let up yet. Looking like around 30mm in my gauge at a guess from distance.

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#1441887 - 21/11/2017 15:36 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 658
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Stopped here now, 35mm in the gauge. Happy with that!

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#1441890 - 21/11/2017 15:44 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
wow mate, that is awesome
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1441913 - 21/11/2017 19:15 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Wezza Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/01/2008
Posts: 658
Loc: North Ward, Townsville. Toll, ...
Some pics from the lovely rain from earlier:
IMG20171121134430 by Wezza, on Flickr
IMG20171121134903 by Wezza, on Flickr
IMG20171121134848 by Wezza, on Flickr
Maybe a bit more light rain on the way according to the radar.

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#1442022 - 22/11/2017 22:46 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Pouring in BG!

Will be short lived though.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1442039 - 23/11/2017 07:20 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
26mm in BG overnight.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1442054 - 23/11/2017 09:29 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Big fat "0" in Kirwan.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1442060 - 23/11/2017 11:00 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Yeah looked to be very tightly confined to the coastal fringe unfortunately.

There's an odd reading at Paradise Lagoon (just to the NE of Paluma) of 81mm...
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1442297 - 25/11/2017 10:13 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14167
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
I got 6mm from the same time frame. Just shows how patchy it was.
_________________________
43mm Jan 2018
2018 Total 43mm
2017 Total 855mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







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#1442370 - 26/11/2017 15:09 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Well what a week. Just ended another 150mm week. Although blue skys are welcome now. Maybe another day or two before showers return. Unreal how the showers just funnelled through in my area consistently.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1442587 - 28/11/2017 15:39 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: retired weather man]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 533
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
Some of you in Townsville maybe remember me - Retired Weather Man. I worked with BoM in Townsville from 1986 before retiring and then moving to Brisbane in late 2011.

A big reason for joining BoM in the 1960's was as a result of my Science teacher enlightening me on the work of the late Inigo Jones who passed away in 1953 but looked into a possible relationship between solar activity and Eastern Australian rainfall, particularly north of about 30 deg S.

From the early 1900's he made various seasonal predictions based on this theory to give the farming community some hope with the long running Federation Drought. A large percentage of his predictions came good and he was known as " The Farmers Friend ".

At the time BoM did not enhance his theory at all and made that clear to me should I wish to continue with that organization. However I continued to look into it " on the quiet ". Now in retirement I have continued to look into any possible relationship.

A couple of months ago I published a comparison between solar activity and rainfall district 40 which covers South East Qld in the ESNO thread. There were some "tie ups" but in general nothing too conclusive.

I have looked into a Townsville comparison, because Townsville is uniquely placed to be not influenced by stream showers which boosts annual totals as occurs to its north and south, due to the coastline orientation and proximity of ranges. Normally I would have looked at the whole district as I did with SEQ.

The "tie up" is a lot better than SEQ as can be seen from the graph. There are few large hiccups - namely 1913, 1933,1975,2008-10, but in general not bad. Month by month data comparisons were too unwieldy so I averaged data out over an annual basis. I looked into the SOI as well, but comparisons were all over the place. The PDO saw a better result but available data did not go back far enough.

I looked onto the Top End of the NT and NW WA too, but comparisons were not as good as the Townsville region.

Anyway have a look at the graph.






Cant really see any evidence in that graph to prove Solar Activity has anything to do with rainfall. Occasionally high activity coincides with high rainfall but most times it doesnt match imo.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Jan 2018]: 149.9mm (Ave 465mm)
Dec 2017: 58.9mm (avg 205mm)
YTD 2018 65mmmm (Avg 1964.9mm)

Top
#1442632 - 28/11/2017 22:53 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
a huge 4mm at home this arvo. was hoping for the activity to stick around, esp after the BOM updated the forecast at 1630 saying "showers, more likely later this evening" but have since all gone. Great forecasting.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1442667 - 29/11/2017 10:08 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
another rain event for SE qld, while we cant even nail a storm in late November. Pretty depressing really. thankfully we had 90mm through October, but any gains from that are long gone.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1442835 - 30/11/2017 08:50 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Finally a decent drop. 16mm at home. Better rain further north.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1442844 - 30/11/2017 10:01 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
RC Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2164
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
I need a bigger computer screen if those sized pictures are the norm these days .. grin

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#1442856 - 30/11/2017 10:49 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12675
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
10mm at BG, 36mm for November.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1442872 - 30/11/2017 12:04 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
I had a dream last night we were getting smashed by a cyclone, woke up and it was the roar of rain on my flat roof that was making all the noise.

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#1442885 - 30/11/2017 12:52 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 417
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
I have always thought it was pretty impressive how our brains can take an external sound and fabricate a dream to suit.


Edited by Nerd65 (30/11/2017 12:52)
_________________________
Linux is Star Trek; Windows is Star Wars.

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#1442929 - 30/11/2017 16:29 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Red Watch]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4076
Loc: El Arish
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
I had a dream last night we were getting smashed by a cyclone, woke up and it was the roar of rain on my flat roof that was making all the noise.


I Had a dream i was squashing a giant Mosquito, until i woke up and realized that i had just slapped my wife...whoops!
She saw the funny side of it though!
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1442935 - 30/11/2017 17:02 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
best looking set up today, scattered showers and storm galore and still cant nail one. heard a wee bit of thunder behind mt stuart earlier.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1442954 - 30/11/2017 18:36 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
scott12 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 822
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
I had a dream last night we were getting smashed by a cyclone, woke up and it was the roar of rain on my flat roof that was making all the noise.


I Had a dream i was squashing a giant Mosquito, until i woke up and realized that i had just slapped my wife...whoops!
She saw the funny side of it though!


Yeah good excuse mate..!..my missus wouldn't see the funny side of it...she would probably break my arm.. grin

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#1442995 - 30/11/2017 22:12 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
lol.

few light showers moving thru downtown kirwan atm.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

Top
#1443042 - 01/12/2017 09:06 Re: North Queensland Build Up - Cardwell to Bowen - November 2017 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
RC Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2164
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
I had a dream last night we were getting smashed by a cyclone, woke up and it was the roar of rain on my flat roof that was making all the noise.


I Had a dream i was squashing a giant Mosquito, until i woke up and realized that i had just slapped my wife...whoops!
She saw the funny side of it though!


I had a dream I was... Oh wait we won't go there. grin

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