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#1440767 - 07/11/2017 22:41 VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The first major heat system for the year will slowly build up over the coming days and continue for many days, possibly until the end of next week. The slow moving High will move over the state over the next 3 days and is forecast by ACCESSG to stay over the Tasman to the states east for a number of days.






Melbourne will reach the mid to high 20s over the weekend and likely into the 30s next week. Mildura will see 30+ temperatures from Thursday onwards.
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#1440771 - 08/11/2017 01:20 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 39
Loc: Rowville, VIC
[img]http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct_anom_c&rh=2017110706&fh=198&r=au&dpdt=[/img]

The GFS Model again over hyping the event or there is an error that needs overiding. I think it is meant to be saying that ground level tempratures in Melbourne area is meant to be around 7 degrees above average for this time of year which is around 22c. But says 17c ABOVE AVERAGE and if that pulls off then the GFS is going for a VERY HOT 39c day on Tuesday next week but think it means more like 29c lol. CFS and CMC are keeping it around 7c ABOVE AVERAGE for next Tuesday smile So using basic manipulation skills I would be sticking with a 29-32c day next Tuesday which would be around 7-10c ABOVE AVERAGE for this time of year smile
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#1440776 - 08/11/2017 08:37 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Thanks for the thread logansi, warming up to Tuesday max forecast in this part of Gippsland @ 31C. Agree Daniel, bit early for 39's.

See some large inland systems holding rain, might fluke some mid next week if it works out. Some hints of rain on EC and GFS 16 day.

Some follow up here would be extremely handy although sold the mini mob of Dorpers so don't need the grass.

Certainly nice to have more than a foot of water in the house tanks. grin


Edited by samboz (08/11/2017 08:39)
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#1440780 - 08/11/2017 08:49 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hints of convective activity along the ranges from as early as Friday on some models, GFS and even EC at times over the last day or so.

Wont be huge but SDS means will cling to hope.

ACC model posted has winds in the south going back to east or even SE by mid week. EC and GFS have long northerly fetch until the change arrives but the timing of that is pretty fluid atm.

Until this big high moves actually east of us I am not sure they will get a handle on the timing.
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#1440822 - 08/11/2017 17:51 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This heat worst than November 2016 just two days, 20th 34.7c and 21st 36.9c.

Upper low in Pacific Ocean between Fiji to New Zealand is blocking our High pressure longer days.

Now coming days
Saturday 30c
Sunday 30c
Monday 32c
Tuesday 35c

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#1440823 - 08/11/2017 18:33 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
This heat worst than November 2016 just two days, 20th 34.7c and 21st 36.9c.

Upper low in Pacific Ocean between Fiji to New Zealand is blocking our High pressure longer days.

Now coming days
Saturday 30c
Sunday 30c
Monday 32c
Tuesday 35c


And that could continue until Friday. If the setup follows the current models (ACCESSG especially) we may see some records broken
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#1440830 - 08/11/2017 20:25 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting warm period coming up for
Sure! Will really kick the drying off into
Gear!

We are 125mm down on our average this
Year to date!

The ground is already a lot dryer than
This time last year

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#1440834 - 08/11/2017 21:48 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC has the change through all but the east of the state by Wednesday arvo and significantly cool again behind that on tonights run. Models still a bit confused with the block CA refers to.
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#1440845 - 08/11/2017 22:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
OMG SO EXCITED A WEEK OF FINE SUNY WEATHER

Humid thundery possible late next week but prob just be a cold crappy front.
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#1440849 - 08/11/2017 23:09 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Ruckle]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
EC has the change through all but the east of the state by Wednesday arvo and significantly cool again behind that on tonights run. Models still a bit confused with the block CA refers to.


Tonights AccessG run agrees, also toned down the heat a bit. I think the big thing will be whether the cold front connects to the tropical moisture or not, if it does it will push the high away, if not it will slip away to the south.


Edited by logansi (08/11/2017 23:10)
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#1440881 - 09/11/2017 11:42 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
We all exciting for warm days but dont' want too much cirrus or middle level clouds rubbish flow from jet-stream over Victoria from SA..

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#1440943 - 10/11/2017 18:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good thread Logansi.

GFS latests temps (5pm):



Pretty much what you'd expect after a lingering high mid November - on this run, plenty of time for things to change in the hotter direction.

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#1440953 - 10/11/2017 22:49 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
All models now line up with the cool change to come through on Wednesday, looks like quite a wet/storm one too with possibility of widespread storms on both Wednesday and Thursday
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#1440973 - 11/11/2017 11:23 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 133
Loc: Melbourne Victoria.
Originally Posted By: logansi
All models now line up with the cool change to come through on Wednesday, looks like quite a wet/storm one too with possibility of widespread storms on both Wednesday and Thursday



Lovely, lines up nicely with the outdoor midnight oil concert in Melbourne wink

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#1440976 - 11/11/2017 11:41 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Smeag, I thought they played Melb last weekend?

Have a tinker with your account settings and tell us your location smile

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#1440983 - 11/11/2017 13:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Little cell to my immediate WNW is extending southward. The SW to NE motion is not going to be helpful.
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#1440984 - 11/11/2017 13:49 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
93mm rain rate in nearby Trentham.
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#1440987 - 11/11/2017 14:31 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Been raining here now for 5 or 10 minutes. Some very big drops at times.

Edit: THUNDER


Edited by Ruckle (11/11/2017 14:37)
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#1440996 - 11/11/2017 18:35 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice Ruckle, ...the 300hPa charts show that an storms on the ranges for Victoria will track NNE'wards for the next 6 days.

Looks like a dry November looming for the fire prone SE Vic.

26C here today with a vigorous seabreeze setting in not long after lunch.

Not much rain in the 8 day outlook for us in SE VIc. Soon we will be dreading storms if we dont get rain to follow up the handy drop 2 weeks ago.

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#1440998 - 11/11/2017 18:48 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hey Petros, 9.7mm, hail, a couple of flangs and even some high but non severe wind. We were the bullseye for a change temp dropped to 14.5c from a high of 25.9c then post storm we have had a sunny 21 degrees or so. Wonderful weather day.
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