Page 2 of 6 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 >
Topic Options
#1441005 - 11/11/2017 20:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Wish I was there Ruckle, enjoy that weather immensely grin

Mid to late next week firming up nicely for good rain in S/E Vic, ACCESS quite optimistic this stage, which is the better model, GFS or ACCESS ?

P, the S to S/E came up here also today, good mildish day, didn't see a max. temp but don't doubt 26C hen on the mower round midday.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

Top
#1441018 - 12/11/2017 13:00 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Here's the most recent canadian models take on the rain chances when this high pressure system is replaced by the passage of a low pressure system:



Thunder about?

Top
#1441019 - 12/11/2017 13:07 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Hey Petros, 9.7mm, hail, a couple of flangs and even some high but non severe wind. We were the bullseye for a change temp dropped to 14.5c from a high of 25.9c then post storm we have had a sunny 21 degrees or so. Wonderful weather day.



That'll freshen things up in your locale smile

Samboz, re GFS/AccG accuracy. For my 2 bobs, all models are continuously improving, the major differences I "think I see" are how each handle the topography of the users location. For Gippsland Vic - I reckon GFS picks the development and tracking of cut-off low pressure systems earliest/best, and (again only applies to Gippsland) predicts rain totals earliest/best. All models chop and change outside say, 2 days ahead, but for me, GFS seems to be the best in terms of holding consistency.

Top
#1441030 - 12/11/2017 18:29 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hmm, this morning CFS image obviously didnt work! - heres latest GFS rainfall accumulations from the change post this thread:


Storms are a Monty?

Top
#1441037 - 12/11/2017 20:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Need those storms or some sort of decent
Rain to come off p! Easterly has been
Blowing like anything up here the last 4 days
And mix that with low to mid 20's temps the
Joint is starting to dry now!

We need 88mm up here to meet November
Average and we are sitting on 15mm currently.

Top
#1441041 - 12/11/2017 21:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Thanks for those comments re GFS/ACCESS P, been some build up in last few days locally but nothng came out of it.

We could do OK out of this one.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

Top
#1441052 - 13/11/2017 08:35 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1936
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
This mornings ACCESS to good to be true for our dry patch in Gippsland (7.5mm for Nov.) -

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

We'll see if the model runs for the hills and deserts us in the next 24/48hrs.

GFS on WZ also most favourable for here, hay mowers going over night locally trying to get it in pre Thursday.

Agree Petros, a little closer to the forecast events will be the interesting bit about how the models alter.....GFS @ ACCESS looking brilliant this AM....did I mention that ? grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN 53.4MM FEB 14MM MARCH 18MM APRIL-

Top
#1441076 - 13/11/2017 14:32 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
An uneventful sunny Sunday but decent storm just south of my house right now. Unfortunately I am in the CBD...reports from home that thunder is audible.

Second storm in 3 days!(for the house)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441085 - 13/11/2017 15:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Saw on radar Ruckle looks heavy rain and lighting, hope no bush fires...Looks like heading Northern Country maybe not as will decay...as Lower Convergence pushed from South East.

Very surprised heaps clouds in West and North of Victoria not producing storms yet.


Edited by chasers addict (13/11/2017 15:31)

Top
#1441086 - 13/11/2017 15:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Iím back, havenít been on here in a while! Have seen the radar perfectly display the storm forcefield on the visible satellite. Was in Eildon yesterday but the storms for too Far East for me! Hereís hoping they stay in the same spot tomorrow as Iíll be near Melton, as the forcefield ends there
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441089 - 13/11/2017 16:03 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Report from home is non stop thunder for an hour and about 20 big drops. Photos I have been sent show pretty heavy rain right under it. Off home now so they should evaporate shortly...
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441093 - 13/11/2017 16:46 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1229
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Woodend is 2 for 2
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1441094 - 13/11/2017 17:30 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 287
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
It's all just skirting around Melbourne typical, bloody show off!
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1441099 - 13/11/2017 18:25 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Weather_Viewer]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
It's all just skirting around Melbourne typical, bloody show off!


Just gives me more evidence that a deflector HAARP storm shield was installed in Laverton just after the Xmas Day 2011. We have not had a storm as bad in the metro area. Watch radars over the last 6 years and each time there is a severe storm it forms outside this deflector shield.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441101 - 13/11/2017 18:53 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Today and tomorrow the storms, if develop, will track northwards:



....which if the above is correct is good for Gippsland, indicates the chance of a rare "brew over Strezleckiis - track N to Gippy" scenario.

West moving storms for Wednesday for most.

Top
#1441103 - 13/11/2017 19:12 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
1.2mm only at home but between Gisborne and Macedon stations there was a lot of water lying around on the way home. Actually flowing on the tracks in the forest. Really impressive drop under that near stationary cell. High temp of 28.3c new warmest day.

Interesting to see the storms to the west are now drifting SE ward or ESE ward. But near stationary.

My wife took a couple of snaps looking south from our house this arvo.







Edited by Ruckle (13/11/2017 19:13)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441127 - 14/11/2017 08:50 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6298
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models pretty enthusiastic about the next few days rainfall wise. All have max's in slightly different places so be interesting to see where it all comes off and how widespread.

EC set up for tomorrow real interesting on 12z run if there was some sun tomorrow over say central to NW of central parts of the state...
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441139 - 14/11/2017 11:32 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Rain is need as surface on ground is cracking up so hope upto 30mm as no rain for 14 days this month.


Edited by chasers addict (14/11/2017 11:34)

Top
#1441150 - 14/11/2017 16:16 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 287
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
At work in the City, home PWS showing 36.2C in Tarneit shocked
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1441163 - 14/11/2017 17:54 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Grunty development over the Gippy N ranges this arvo most of tall stuff tracked N as expected, but remnant/back building is still trying on the S lee of the ranges.

...rumbles audible, splats on the radio, if weaker storms can develop and remain below 300 hPa, they may stick around to make it a pleasant evening here.

32C max, tempered by seabreeze, not so down at Latrobe Valley, got to 35 C down there - numbers high enough to justify some of those modelled 37C progs we were discussing a couple of days ago!

Top
Page 2 of 6 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 >


Who's Online
7 registered (DarrylS, Raindammit, Kino, Aussea, 3 invisible), 342 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Pickles
Forum Stats
29543 Members
32 Forums
23882 Topics
1489328 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image