Page 1 of 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 >
Topic Options
#1440767 - 07/11/2017 22:41 VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The first major heat system for the year will slowly build up over the coming days and continue for many days, possibly until the end of next week. The slow moving High will move over the state over the next 3 days and is forecast by ACCESSG to stay over the Tasman to the states east for a number of days.






Melbourne will reach the mid to high 20s over the weekend and likely into the 30s next week. Mildura will see 30+ temperatures from Thursday onwards.
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1440771 - 08/11/2017 01:20 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Daniel Hayward Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 19/11/2013
Posts: 39
Loc: Rowville, VIC
[img]http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct_anom_c&rh=2017110706&fh=198&r=au&dpdt=[/img]

The GFS Model again over hyping the event or there is an error that needs overiding. I think it is meant to be saying that ground level tempratures in Melbourne area is meant to be around 7 degrees above average for this time of year which is around 22c. But says 17c ABOVE AVERAGE and if that pulls off then the GFS is going for a VERY HOT 39c day on Tuesday next week but think it means more like 29c lol. CFS and CMC are keeping it around 7c ABOVE AVERAGE for next Tuesday smile So using basic manipulation skills I would be sticking with a 29-32c day next Tuesday which would be around 7-10c ABOVE AVERAGE for this time of year smile
_________________________
Daniel Hayward

Top
#1440776 - 08/11/2017 08:37 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thanks for the thread logansi, warming up to Tuesday max forecast in this part of Gippsland @ 31C. Agree Daniel, bit early for 39's.

See some large inland systems holding rain, might fluke some mid next week if it works out. Some hints of rain on EC and GFS 16 day.

Some follow up here would be extremely handy although sold the mini mob of Dorpers so don't need the grass.

Certainly nice to have more than a foot of water in the house tanks. grin


Edited by samboz (08/11/2017 08:39)

Top
#1440780 - 08/11/2017 08:49 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hints of convective activity along the ranges from as early as Friday on some models, GFS and even EC at times over the last day or so.

Wont be huge but SDS means will cling to hope.

ACC model posted has winds in the south going back to east or even SE by mid week. EC and GFS have long northerly fetch until the change arrives but the timing of that is pretty fluid atm.

Until this big high moves actually east of us I am not sure they will get a handle on the timing.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1440822 - 08/11/2017 17:51 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
This heat worst than November 2016 just two days, 20th 34.7c and 21st 36.9c.

Upper low in Pacific Ocean between Fiji to New Zealand is blocking our High pressure longer days.

Now coming days
Saturday 30c
Sunday 30c
Monday 32c
Tuesday 35c

Top
#1440823 - 08/11/2017 18:33 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
This heat worst than November 2016 just two days, 20th 34.7c and 21st 36.9c.

Upper low in Pacific Ocean between Fiji to New Zealand is blocking our High pressure longer days.

Now coming days
Saturday 30c
Sunday 30c
Monday 32c
Tuesday 35c


And that could continue until Friday. If the setup follows the current models (ACCESSG especially) we may see some records broken
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1440830 - 08/11/2017 20:25 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Interesting warm period coming up for
Sure! Will really kick the drying off into
Gear!

We are 125mm down on our average this
Year to date!

The ground is already a lot dryer than
This time last year

Top
#1440834 - 08/11/2017 21:48 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC has the change through all but the east of the state by Wednesday arvo and significantly cool again behind that on tonights run. Models still a bit confused with the block CA refers to.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1440845 - 08/11/2017 22:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
OMG SO EXCITED A WEEK OF FINE SUNY WEATHER

Humid thundery possible late next week but prob just be a cold crappy front.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

Top
#1440849 - 08/11/2017 23:09 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Ruckle]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
EC has the change through all but the east of the state by Wednesday arvo and significantly cool again behind that on tonights run. Models still a bit confused with the block CA refers to.


Tonights AccessG run agrees, also toned down the heat a bit. I think the big thing will be whether the cold front connects to the tropical moisture or not, if it does it will push the high away, if not it will slip away to the south.


Edited by logansi (08/11/2017 23:10)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1440881 - 09/11/2017 11:42 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
We all exciting for warm days but dont' want too much cirrus or middle level clouds rubbish flow from jet-stream over Victoria from SA..

Top
#1440943 - 10/11/2017 18:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Good thread Logansi.

GFS latests temps (5pm):



Pretty much what you'd expect after a lingering high mid November - on this run, plenty of time for things to change in the hotter direction.

Top
#1440953 - 10/11/2017 22:49 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
All models now line up with the cool change to come through on Wednesday, looks like quite a wet/storm one too with possibility of widespread storms on both Wednesday and Thursday
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1440973 - 11/11/2017 11:23 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Melbourne Victoria.
Originally Posted By: logansi
All models now line up with the cool change to come through on Wednesday, looks like quite a wet/storm one too with possibility of widespread storms on both Wednesday and Thursday



Lovely, lines up nicely with the outdoor midnight oil concert in Melbourne wink

Top
#1440976 - 11/11/2017 11:41 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Smeag, I thought they played Melb last weekend?

Have a tinker with your account settings and tell us your location smile

Top
#1440983 - 11/11/2017 13:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Little cell to my immediate WNW is extending southward. The SW to NE motion is not going to be helpful.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1440984 - 11/11/2017 13:49 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
93mm rain rate in nearby Trentham.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1440987 - 11/11/2017 14:31 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Been raining here now for 5 or 10 minutes. Some very big drops at times.

Edit: THUNDER


Edited by Ruckle (11/11/2017 14:37)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1440996 - 11/11/2017 18:35 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice Ruckle, ...the 300hPa charts show that an storms on the ranges for Victoria will track NNE'wards for the next 6 days.

Looks like a dry November looming for the fire prone SE Vic.

26C here today with a vigorous seabreeze setting in not long after lunch.

Not much rain in the 8 day outlook for us in SE VIc. Soon we will be dreading storms if we dont get rain to follow up the handy drop 2 weeks ago.

Top
#1440998 - 11/11/2017 18:48 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hey Petros, 9.7mm, hail, a couple of flangs and even some high but non severe wind. We were the bullseye for a change temp dropped to 14.5c from a high of 25.9c then post storm we have had a sunny 21 degrees or so. Wonderful weather day.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441005 - 11/11/2017 20:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Wish I was there Ruckle, enjoy that weather immensely grin

Mid to late next week firming up nicely for good rain in S/E Vic, ACCESS quite optimistic this stage, which is the better model, GFS or ACCESS ?

P, the S to S/E came up here also today, good mildish day, didn't see a max. temp but don't doubt 26C hen on the mower round midday.

Top
#1441018 - 12/11/2017 13:00 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Here's the most recent canadian models take on the rain chances when this high pressure system is replaced by the passage of a low pressure system:



Thunder about?

Top
#1441019 - 12/11/2017 13:07 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Hey Petros, 9.7mm, hail, a couple of flangs and even some high but non severe wind. We were the bullseye for a change temp dropped to 14.5c from a high of 25.9c then post storm we have had a sunny 21 degrees or so. Wonderful weather day.



That'll freshen things up in your locale smile

Samboz, re GFS/AccG accuracy. For my 2 bobs, all models are continuously improving, the major differences I "think I see" are how each handle the topography of the users location. For Gippsland Vic - I reckon GFS picks the development and tracking of cut-off low pressure systems earliest/best, and (again only applies to Gippsland) predicts rain totals earliest/best. All models chop and change outside say, 2 days ahead, but for me, GFS seems to be the best in terms of holding consistency.

Top
#1441030 - 12/11/2017 18:29 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hmm, this morning CFS image obviously didnt work! - heres latest GFS rainfall accumulations from the change post this thread:


Storms are a Monty?

Top
#1441037 - 12/11/2017 20:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Need those storms or some sort of decent
Rain to come off p! Easterly has been
Blowing like anything up here the last 4 days
And mix that with low to mid 20's temps the
Joint is starting to dry now!

We need 88mm up here to meet November
Average and we are sitting on 15mm currently.

Top
#1441041 - 12/11/2017 21:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thanks for those comments re GFS/ACCESS P, been some build up in last few days locally but nothng came out of it.

We could do OK out of this one.

Top
#1441052 - 13/11/2017 08:35 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
This mornings ACCESS to good to be true for our dry patch in Gippsland (7.5mm for Nov.) -

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

We'll see if the model runs for the hills and deserts us in the next 24/48hrs.

GFS on WZ also most favourable for here, hay mowers going over night locally trying to get it in pre Thursday.

Agree Petros, a little closer to the forecast events will be the interesting bit about how the models alter.....GFS @ ACCESS looking brilliant this AM....did I mention that ? grin

Top
#1441076 - 13/11/2017 14:32 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
An uneventful sunny Sunday but decent storm just south of my house right now. Unfortunately I am in the CBD...reports from home that thunder is audible.

Second storm in 3 days!(for the house)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441085 - 13/11/2017 15:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Saw on radar Ruckle looks heavy rain and lighting, hope no bush fires...Looks like heading Northern Country maybe not as will decay...as Lower Convergence pushed from South East.

Very surprised heaps clouds in West and North of Victoria not producing storms yet.


Edited by chasers addict (13/11/2017 15:31)

Top
#1441086 - 13/11/2017 15:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Im back, havent been on here in a while! Have seen the radar perfectly display the storm forcefield on the visible satellite. Was in Eildon yesterday but the storms for too Far East for me! Heres hoping they stay in the same spot tomorrow as Ill be near Melton, as the forcefield ends there
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441089 - 13/11/2017 16:03 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Report from home is non stop thunder for an hour and about 20 big drops. Photos I have been sent show pretty heavy rain right under it. Off home now so they should evaporate shortly...
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441093 - 13/11/2017 16:46 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Woodend is 2 for 2
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1441094 - 13/11/2017 17:30 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
It's all just skirting around Melbourne typical, bloody show off!
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1441099 - 13/11/2017 18:25 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Weather_Viewer]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Originally Posted By: Weather_Viewer
It's all just skirting around Melbourne typical, bloody show off!


Just gives me more evidence that a deflector HAARP storm shield was installed in Laverton just after the Xmas Day 2011. We have not had a storm as bad in the metro area. Watch radars over the last 6 years and each time there is a severe storm it forms outside this deflector shield.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441101 - 13/11/2017 18:53 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Today and tomorrow the storms, if develop, will track northwards:



....which if the above is correct is good for Gippsland, indicates the chance of a rare "brew over Strezleckiis - track N to Gippy" scenario.

West moving storms for Wednesday for most.

Top
#1441103 - 13/11/2017 19:12 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
1.2mm only at home but between Gisborne and Macedon stations there was a lot of water lying around on the way home. Actually flowing on the tracks in the forest. Really impressive drop under that near stationary cell. High temp of 28.3c new warmest day.

Interesting to see the storms to the west are now drifting SE ward or ESE ward. But near stationary.

My wife took a couple of snaps looking south from our house this arvo.







Edited by Ruckle (13/11/2017 19:13)
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441127 - 14/11/2017 08:50 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models pretty enthusiastic about the next few days rainfall wise. All have max's in slightly different places so be interesting to see where it all comes off and how widespread.

EC set up for tomorrow real interesting on 12z run if there was some sun tomorrow over say central to NW of central parts of the state...
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441139 - 14/11/2017 11:32 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Rain is need as surface on ground is cracking up so hope upto 30mm as no rain for 14 days this month.


Edited by chasers addict (14/11/2017 11:34)

Top
#1441150 - 14/11/2017 16:16 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
At work in the City, home PWS showing 36.2C in Tarneit shocked
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1441163 - 14/11/2017 17:54 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Grunty development over the Gippy N ranges this arvo most of tall stuff tracked N as expected, but remnant/back building is still trying on the S lee of the ranges.

...rumbles audible, splats on the radio, if weaker storms can develop and remain below 300 hPa, they may stick around to make it a pleasant evening here.

32C max, tempered by seabreeze, not so down at Latrobe Valley, got to 35 C down there - numbers high enough to justify some of those modelled 37C progs we were discussing a couple of days ago!

Top
#1441165 - 14/11/2017 18:01 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Same over here petros!

Some nice development to our north
Out around Baw Baw and looked like
For a while that it was edging further and
Further south towards here but the sea
Breeze came in and mucked it all up!! 😨

Top
#1441173 - 14/11/2017 20:14 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Dooga, that development I noted before then turned to impressive mamatus for 10 mins or so, then all fizzled.

Had the (very) oldies around for a bbq tea, was nice an mild evening, with only the remnants of the fresh seabreeze remaining to make it pleasant outside.

Paddocks turned to stressed/dry out this way after the rain 2 weeks back, probably the peak of the hay harvest happening here last few days, all will be relieved no rain tonight, but all also prepared (hoping) for rain tomorrow/Thursday in these parts imo. Lake Glenmaggie peaked at circa 95% which is low considering the great snow season, now at 92% and falling like a stone.

Rain progs for Gippsland on the arvo runs have backed off, but still allow 1/2" or so, ...and (more importantly) the chance of storms tomorrow arvo and Thursday. Some areas may get lucky.

Top
#1441177 - 14/11/2017 20:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For the second consecutive evening, we again have the first cicada's of summer squealing.

Top
#1441178 - 14/11/2017 20:50 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models still struggling with where to place the low that they all say will form in the trough tomorrow night into Thursday. Interesting that they differ so much so close to the event. They all agree that south and SW of that low will get a serious hosing. On EC that's kind of the SW coast, GFS my house westward and shorter range ACC a bit closer to GFS but perhaps tending eastward with the rain max.

Anyway, with no satellite clue yet we shall wait and see, fingers crossed for GFS scenario for me.

28.4c for a high today
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441185 - 14/11/2017 23:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report from here in Belgrave since the start of this event.

Wednesday November 8th 2017
Low: 8.6C High: 22.8C Rain: 0mm


Thursday November 9th 2017
Low: 7.5C High: 26.9C Rain: 0mm


Friday November 10th 2017
Low: 9.0C High: 28.5C Rain: 0mm


Saturday November 11th 2017
Low: 13.7C High: 31.7C Rain: 0mm


Sunday November 12th 2017
Low: 11.4C High: 31.2C Rain: Trace


Monday November 13th 2017
Low: 11.9C High: 35.9C Rain: 0mm


Tuesday November 14th 2017
Low: 19.1C High: 37.9C Rain: 0mm


A very welcome change from the ridiculously wintry start to November 2017! Up until November 10th the nights were quite cold, but the afternoons were gloriously fine, mild to warm and mostly sunny with cooling breezes. smile

From November 11th, the pattern became more akin to summer. The nights were generally comfortable (we had chilly fog/mist/low cloud with light spitting rain early on Sunday morning while on my way down to Dandenong), followed by hot, humid, mostly sunny afternoons, again with refreshing breezes at times. Boy the Sun felt intense after the recent cold weather!! eek crazy

Thanks to the heat and humidity, along with instability and the presence of the troughs affecting Victoria, it was nice to see some shower and thunderstorm action once again, even if it was way off in the distance! I was only just barely able to see the storms over towards the Macedon Ranges on Saturday while down in Ferntree Gully, but I had a much better view of them yesterday while in Narre Warren (particularly towards the Geelong/Ballarat direction to the west/southwest, towards Baw Baw to the east/northeast, and towards the Kinglake/Murrindindi/Yea/Alexandra region to the north).

And the action was for much more widespread and more visually spectacular today - a few brief cells could be seen flaring around Geelong while I was down in Berwick. But my main focus was to the east/northeast towards the Baw Baw direction, where numerous sluggish but potentially severe thunderstorm cells were repeatedly bubbling and collapsing, with locally heavy falls on the Melbourne radar; the most powerful storms formed some HUGE overshoots above their cumulonimbus anvils btw! smile

Around dinnertime a couple of storms developed over towards the Gembrook/Bunyip State Forest and Little Yarra regions to the east/northeast. Both storms were impressive but only lasted an hour or so. A string of storms also popped up to our south at the same time (from Cranbourne down towards Phillip Island) but dissipated at sunset.

Lots of convective, dark-based towers flaring about closer to my neck of the woods today, but apart from the storms that formed from Cranbourne southwards at dinnertime we didn't get even a shower or muttering of thunder. frown

The ground is a bit crunchy in spots, so I'm hoping we can score anywhere between 15-50mm (or more) of rain over the next 24-48 hours, plus some seriously severe thunderstorm action to go with it. My average November rainfall is 63.2mm and so far for November 2017 we've only had 13.7mm, so still a long way to go to reach our quota hmmm... poke

It's a mostly clear, breezy, balmy night atm, currently around 24C. My hottest November night to date is November 21st 2016 with a low of 23.4C. Will tonight match or beat that record? smile

Top
#1441190 - 15/11/2017 02:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The GFS and satellite still hard pin upper low going to sit and Can see strong southerly on left and right is Northerly as clouds band looks tight narrow.

Top
#1441194 - 15/11/2017 08:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest runs show best storm potential over Vic's central and SE today.

IMO hot spots will be the city and "Loo country" (Pakenham).

IF the link below works, it indicates that for E of Melb, storms, if they get get going, may travel WNW.



So there will be one Royal Maffra golfer playing this afternoon with a serious eye turned towards Mt Baw Baw and Thompson Valley!

Good luck to all, ...we all need rain.


Edited by Petros (15/11/2017 08:22)

Top
#1441228 - 15/11/2017 13:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like major heavy thunderstorms entering West Victoria looks great.

Top
#1441229 - 15/11/2017 14:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Been flying this morning - very bumpy out there!
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1441241 - 15/11/2017 15:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom thinks upto 100mm rain likely for West to Northern Country tonight into few days.

Top
#1441243 - 15/11/2017 15:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 23.4C (tying with November 21st last year for my hottest November night on record). It reached a hot, humid top of 34.1C today, right now it's around 27C.

A blustery start to the day with gusty northerlies, and plenty of sunshine up until lunchtime, but it looked quite unstable. Cloud's been increasing all afternoon, and it's becoming convective; the air has a rather "heavy" feel to it now and it's growing kinda dark! Good to see storms are finally brewing around Melbourne! grin

Top
#1441245 - 15/11/2017 15:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
blu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/09/2002
Posts: 700
Loc: Laverton
the southerly breeze may have killed any chances for the CBD

Top
#1441255 - 15/11/2017 17:26 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Heavy rain & Thunder here in Red Cliffs.

Top
#1441257 - 15/11/2017 17:40 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Forcefield activates and the storm evaporates. 4 good quality pieces of lightning before the HAARP was activated
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441262 - 15/11/2017 18:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Just had a lightning strike, hit very close to the Red Cliffs, township. The ground moved, I swear. Last time it was that close, Avocado trees burned, over the hill from me.

Top
#1441264 - 15/11/2017 20:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No rain today, a few very tiny showers around
But basically just virga!

Central and west vic looks really good
For substantial rain👍
It's coming straight down from the north
Which is not good for gippslanders due
To the Rangers to the north sheltering us.

Max of 33c here today

Top
#1441265 - 15/11/2017 20:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Why is the radar showing the lightning strikes in the Northwest, going down and to the left and over in the Northeast going down and to the right!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441266 - 15/11/2017 20:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
35c here today.

No seabreeze. No storms.

Dead calm 31c outside now and the cicada's would drive anyone mad!


If a storm is to arrive in Gippy, it'll be during my beauty sleep (where Petros tries to make an inventory of where/how he lost all those golf balls while sweating it out this arvo!).

Top
#1441267 - 15/11/2017 20:31 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: The Fishman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
Why is the radar showing the lightning strikes in the Northwest, going down and to the left and over in the Northeast going down and to the right!


...the 700hPa wind direction? (Storms weak/low level8?).

Top
#1441281 - 16/11/2017 00:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Upper divergence at 500 or so massive lift over vic

INSANE rain in NW Vic right on harvest time bad time

Loads of 40-60mm falls such widespread heavy rain all moving into SW tonight and central early am and tomorrow.

Impressive little system
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

Top
#1441285 - 16/11/2017 08:10 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Dead set flop this side, fell to bits!

There's always next week.

Top
#1441286 - 16/11/2017 08:11 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very surprise that heavy now had to re empty my Rain gauge at 20mm as still keep going

Top
#1441289 - 16/11/2017 08:54 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
La Nia must be helping turning Victoria to soaking.

Last heavy rain was April of 118mm

Top
#1441292 - 16/11/2017 09:26 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep samboz not a drop up here yet either.

Still a chance for something over the next
Couple of days with unstable air around?

It's a north, west and central vic event
Mainly I think

Top
#1441305 - 16/11/2017 10:46 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Melbourne Victoria.
Can confirm light showers all night at the sidney myer music bowl, enough to dampen the grass but not the crowd.

Been lovely light showers (2-3 mm from 9am in the guage) just east of the CBD.

Top
#1441309 - 16/11/2017 11:24 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
At home today loving the rain, lots of very heavy totals around me but was only 4mm to midnight had more than 15mm since 7am though. Was some thunder yesterday pm from the heavy stuff to the west but none since. clear slot developing, will be interesting to see what develops in that and where it heads.. some huge falls over the western part of our state wow.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441318 - 16/11/2017 13:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
23.3mm is my event total so far. As close as Trentham its over 50mm.. would normally be thrilled with my total ha ha. Approaching 35mm since last Saturday.

Sun has tried to come out in the last hour or so but thick low clouds from NE coming in, ceiling on mountain about 800m

Temp 15.6c DP 14.1c wind pretty solid from NE or even ENE.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441322 - 16/11/2017 14:12 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got a "trace of a spit" before, heavily overcast, calm warm and muggy here.

A weak storm brewed up over ThunderBob's stomping ground and tracked SW'wards to graze Sale and head along the Strezleckiis. Very unusual storm track for Gippsland. Nice to at least hear some distant rumbles.

Top
#1441327 - 16/11/2017 15:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Thunder again, what a week!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441330 - 16/11/2017 15:35 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Thunder again, what a week!


smile - glad to see so much of Vic get a rain break and storms.

Nothing here for this event yet, but an easterly drizzle patch looks a possibility over coming hours. Maybe we might eke out a mm or two from that.

Top
#1441332 - 16/11/2017 16:07 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Conga line of storms passing over us atm, occasional rumbles and pretty heavy rain temp down to 12.9c
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441341 - 16/11/2017 16:59 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Mildura measured, 54.2mm, and we had 61mm here, at Red Cliffs.

Top
#1441348 - 16/11/2017 18:26 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great event for most, ......the first signs of Summer La Nina??

Maffra has missed out totally (nil rain) - near-nil in GFS outlook as well.

Top
#1441350 - 16/11/2017 18:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 775
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Mildura doubled it's long term November average in one day.

Top
#1441351 - 16/11/2017 18:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Blackacubra]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Blackacubra
Mildura doubled it's long term November average in one day.


Hmm, discount La Nina influence at our peril?

Top
#1441352 - 16/11/2017 18:50 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
liberator Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2010
Posts: 317
Loc: Kyabram
a nice 28 mm or so here... badly needed. but now those with their harvests cut and the cherry growers... oh to be on the land...

Top
#1441359 - 16/11/2017 20:34 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Another 12.3mm this arvo so 35.6mm since yesterday arvo and 46.5mm since Saturday lunchtime. Still the odd flash about as well.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441391 - 16/11/2017 23:31 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
This one event is not La Nina.
Yes you could argue that the pattern next 10 days or so is a bit La Nina like.

Though atm its more so the SAM which is putting the highs Way south like Jan position south and the WLYs have died out but the big guys is the massive blocking high that wont move causing this great weather for us like the wet summers of old.

Interesting few weeks ahead very very wet for some 6 days in a row with TS on the forecast rare for Melb
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

Top
#1441405 - 17/11/2017 06:57 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Terrific to see widespread rain in Vic, except for this corner, would be very handy for a lot of areas.

3mm here, started dead on 2200hrs, rained for 1hr +.

Cool still morning, some cloud.

Inch plus would be useful.

Top
#1441414 - 17/11/2017 09:42 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
Not a lot for us 4.5mm so far. 36.5 for the month to now.


Edited by Alexia (17/11/2017 09:43)

Top
#1441422 - 17/11/2017 11:23 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Twister1, i have noticed that upper low is not pumping enough moist from North and East to soak Victoria as on top edge of low is dry w/sw from SA.

Top
#1441427 - 17/11/2017 11:39 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Loudest thunder I have heard in a long time, heavy rain for bout 3 minutes. Surrounded by black clouds, most of the severe stuff has just missed me here in Tarneit.
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1441433 - 17/11/2017 11:58 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Melbourne looks very stormy by radar atm.

Top
#1441436 - 17/11/2017 12:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: Petros
Melbourne looks very stormy by radar atm.


Melbourne is quickly getting jealous of geelong wink
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1441439 - 17/11/2017 12:08 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Yet again once it crosses the forcefield barrier it goes off! It was stormy in Kinglake then nothing and goes off again. Just more proof of HAARP
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441444 - 17/11/2017 12:37 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: Dawoodman]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: Dawoodman
Originally Posted By: Petros
Melbourne looks very stormy by radar atm.


Melbourne is quickly getting jealous of geelong wink


Correction...... jealous of the western suburbs
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1441446 - 17/11/2017 13:03 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 219
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Can we get a decent storm here in the SE suburbs for once please?

Top
#1441456 - 17/11/2017 13:40 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 717
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Belter of a storm down on the peninsula now. Just my luck for it to split the CBD and get nothing and it develops into a monster over the bay. Sigh..

Was up in Canberra all week so missed out on activity down here and now a storm is lining up Canberra, just my luck!

Top
#1441467 - 17/11/2017 15:03 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: balmz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Originally Posted By: balmz
Belter of a storm down on the peninsula now. Just my luck for it to split the CBD and get nothing and it develops into a monster over the bay. Sigh..

Was up in Canberra all week so missed out on activity down here and now a storm is lining up Canberra, just my luck!


Go and look at the way the radar is from 10am to now. It goes from wild in the northeast to nothing and the blows up to nice it moves over the CBD. Gives you more evidence of a HAARP.
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441477 - 17/11/2017 15:55 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Finally getting something lol

Couple of storms rolled through this
Arvo crawling our way to to 7mm so far
But still raining 👍

Top
#1441490 - 17/11/2017 16:34 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
New cells forming over eastern suburbs, thunder ever few minutes here in Moorabbin
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1441503 - 17/11/2017 18:24 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rapt to report overnight showers, then two weak storms grazed Maffra today. Provided 12mm to break a 10 day dry spell smile

Top
#1441505 - 17/11/2017 18:33 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 219
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
My prayers were answered. Got out on break right as it came through. Will post pictures later smile

Top
#1441507 - 17/11/2017 18:42 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
12.0mm overnight and early this morning makes it 47.6mm since Wednesday evening.

58.5mm since last Saturday lunch
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441541 - 17/11/2017 22:34 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Wow ruckle!! U guys out west/north of
Melb have done really well!!

We've had 9mm and that's from last
Night and today and I'm not sure we will
See anymore than that? Was hopping
For a lot more with another warm dry spell on
The way over the next week or so.

Top
#1441553 - 18/11/2017 07:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
More handy falls, 9mm is useful enough dooga' - helps keep it green.

Lovely rain up Ruckles way grin

Another 3mm from y'days storms, lot of noise, bgr all rain.

Top
#1441591 - 18/11/2017 13:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very humid of 50% of 28.8c.

Hope thunderstorms and rain from North East to central Victoria as wind shear shifting direction.

Top
#1441601 - 18/11/2017 14:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Shepparton is getting hit currently; Marysville and surrounds are getting hit! Im confident Ill see nothing 👌🏻 Im happy to say Im wrong if we (inner Northeast metro, eg. Ivanhoe, Heidelberg, Greensborough and Eltham)
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

Top
#1441618 - 18/11/2017 16:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 134
Loc: Melbourne Victoria.
Very nice line of heavy rain with thunder moving though east of CBD.

Just had a very close ground strike in Hawthorn/Camberwell area, less then a second between strike and flash.

Top
#1441620 - 18/11/2017 16:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yep plenty of grumbling down here in Moorabbin too smile
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1441622 - 18/11/2017 17:20 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
WOW this a good storm! Love it!
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1441626 - 18/11/2017 17:50 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Incredible vis satellite atm with almost gravity wave type look to it. Boundaries showing up, lots of snaps of Melbourne stuff from here, post later. Watching that Wallan cell with interest.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441630 - 18/11/2017 18:16 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good luck Melbourne, as their turn get soaking as nothing up here in Bendigo today.

Had 40mm two days ago over average November.

Top
#1441631 - 18/11/2017 18:22 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
After two storms yesterday arvo, Maffra copped another late this arvo. Provided 7.5mm at my house and 12mm at Royal Maffra Golf Course.


Petros hurries his last shot at Royal Maffra this afternoon. What you see is what Royal M got!

Top
#1441633 - 18/11/2017 18:37 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...the result!!


Top
#1441634 - 18/11/2017 19:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
samboz Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2073
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Rec'd 6mm out of that one P, doubled the rainfall from the event.

Top
#1441635 - 18/11/2017 19:14 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Maffra township has been very lucky yest/today - 3 weak storms. smile

Top
#1441638 - 18/11/2017 19:40 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6340
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Melbourne stuff can see how it matures






Approx 10 drops here today
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1441640 - 18/11/2017 19:56 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2608
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good photos Petros...

Hope next repeat upper low next week eye sit far North between VIC,NSW border pump more rain E.NE wind .

As this upper Low was siting spinning between NW of Bendigo to Mildura for 3 days giving us stable sunny light winds.





Edited by chasers addict (18/11/2017 19:57)

Top
#1441643 - 18/11/2017 20:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1104
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Yeah some models show it repeating itself late next week.

After a cold start November things have turned hot. Based on the forecast when this period has finished Melbourne is likely to have only seen 1 day below 27 between November 13 and at least the 24th.


Edited by logansi (18/11/2017 20:36)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

Top
#1441647 - 18/11/2017 22:37 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 219
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Pics from yesterday.

IMAG0344[1] by Alex, on Flickr

IMAG0345[1] by Alex, on Flickr

IMAG0347[2] by Alex, on Flickr

IMAG0349[1] by Alex, on Flickr

IMAG0350[2] by Alex, on Flickr

Top
#1441688 - 19/11/2017 17:34 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great pics Remy smile

Top
#1441689 - 19/11/2017 17:35 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7354
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Good photos Petros...

Hope next repeat upper low next week eye sit far North between VIC,NSW border pump more rain E.NE wind .

As this upper Low was siting spinning between NW of Bendigo to Mildura for 3 days giving us stable sunny light winds.





Ta CA, will have a look at the models now.

...how about you start a thread for this? smile

Top
#1441691 - 19/11/2017 17:44 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Loving this weather no doubt!

But what what's happened to Melbourne/Vic weather?
Constant humid North Easterly winds, more akin to cities like Sydney or Brisbane right on the Eastern Seaboard.
_________________________
Wunderground

Top
#1442628 - 28/11/2017 22:32 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey gang! Sorry I haven't been posting for a while (especially since by trip to Sydney), I've been very busy but still actively watching the weather. Here's my post for the rest of this thread from here in Belgrave.

Shortly after my last post on Wednesday November 15th 2017, it became very cloudy and we had heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms break lose over Melbourne, moving north to south. The vast majority of action sadly missed us, but around 6pm the skies got very dark as a large, potentially severe thunderstorm cluster brushed us just to our west. The storm lasted about an hour, giving us a fair bit of thunder, lightning (including a couple of bolts), cooling gusty outflow winds, and some heavy rain. smile

Here's an Instagram pic I took of the storm as it brushed past:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbiFeYPAEhI/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

The main rainband swept down from the north during the evening, with further embedded thunderstorm activity (particularly around 8:30-9pm); the rain was moderately heavy at times but cleared by about 10:30pm.

A few showers came through during the early hours of the morning of Thursday November 16th 2017, and then another rainband with embedded storms swept in between 9am and 2pm; the heaviest rain sadly failed the reach us, but it was a cool, damp day nonetheless.

The rest of the afternoon and evening was mostly cloudy with sporadic showers and thunderstorms around Melbourne, plus a beautiful sunset on my way down to Dandenong. smile

Sunset pic from Endeavour Hills:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbjn2LeAZIr/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Friday November 17th 2017 dawned coolish with misty fog, but grew warmer and sunnier (and increasingly humid, unsettled and stormy) as I made my way across town to Melbourne Airport for my flight to Sydney.

The whole way Melbourne-Sydney flight (including Corryong, Canberra and Wollongong) featured some of the best severe thunderstorm action I've ever seen from a plane! And lots of severe storms after I reached Sydney and made my way to Parramatta, especially towards the NSW Illawarra and Blue Mountains; the flight itself was nearly delayed by dangerous thunderstorms that threatened Tullamarine from Wallan and Seymour! smile

Full report can be read here; note that you'll need to scroll down a bit to find my post: http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1440990/6

And my best pics of the action on my Instgram account:

Dangerous storm threatening Melbourne Airport from the north - which thankfully weakened, only to have another nasty thunderstorm develop right overhead and break lose around Keilor and Sunshine:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbkyLGfAFKB/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Storm with a possible microburst over Yan Yean, just after take-off from Tullamarine:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BblkHRJgUn8/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Storms building over the Kinglake area, seen from Strath Creek:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbowdMeAnw_/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Severe storms flaring over the Victorian High Country, see over the Kiewa Valley; the extensive convective cloudcover prevented me from seeing Corryong, the Murray River or the NSW Snowy Mountains:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbpoveVg88A/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Widespread severe thunderstorm activity south of Canberra and along the NSW South Coast, seen from a place called Lerida near Gunning (between Yass and Goulburn); I couldn't actually see the Capital btw:
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bbp7fHUAJnd/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Very, VERY persistent severe storm offshore in the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean, due east of Wollongong and Kiama in the Illawarra (seen over the Royal National Park, south of Sydney) - which later in the evening came ashore and dumped excessively heavy rainfall over the Illawarra; I got to see a bit of after-dark lightning from this same storm cell from my accommodation in Parramatta in Western Sydney:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbrZF26gThq/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Same storm offshore from Wollongong and Kiama, seen just after I landed at Sydney Airport:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbvVGfrAUJK/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Same storm again (STILL offshore from Wollongong and Kiama), this time aboard the Circular Quay-Parramatta Ferry, plus more thunderstorms raging to Sydney's west over the Blue Mountains:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbyO9URgkoc/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak
https://www.instagram.com/p/BbyarkqAcSV/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Back home, my family reported that a few nasty storms did hit the Dandenong Ranges area during the afternoon and evening. And while we missed most of the rain from the storms that smashed Melbourne on Saturday November 18th (while I was getting drenched by heavy showers and storms in a very fog-shrouded, soaking Blue Mountains haha), my family reported that they had some very, VERY dangerous lightning strikes! eek

Sunday November 19th 2017 was dry, except for a few distant thundery showers about the ranges to Melbourne's northeast. I got to enjoy a beautiful sunny day in Sydney btw! smile

My stats (where available) from here in Belgrave for Thursday November 16th until Sunday November 19th 2017:

Thurday November 16th 2017

Min: 16.8C Max: 19.7C Rain: 2.1mm

Friday November 17th 2017

Min: 14.6C Max: NA Rain: 5.3mm

Saturday November 18th 2017

Min: NA Max: NA Rain: 2.1mm

Saturday November 18th 2017

Min: 14.3C Max: NA Rain: NA

PS Great pics and reports gang! wink


Edited by aussiestormfreak (28/11/2017 22:35)

Top
Page 1 of 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 >


Who's Online
14 registered (mysteriousbrad, Sidney, samboz, Foehn Correspondent, StormCapture, aussiestormfreak, bd bucketingdown, bundybear, Taylsy, Mcbobbings, Steve O, marakai, 2 invisible), 84 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
MatthewBr, Raweth, Russellmill
Forum Stats
29681 Members
32 Forums
23978 Topics
1500507 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image