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#1440244 - 04/11/2017 17:25 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hard to argue that ENSO is now not affecting our weather - first true ECL in a long time progged for Monday with decent widespread falls. Could erase the deficits of 6 months in 24 hours! #bringiton

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#1440247 - 04/11/2017 18:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Hard to argue that ENSO is now not affecting our weather - first true ECL in a long time progged for Monday with decent widespread falls. Could erase the deficits of 6 months in 24 hours! #bringiton

True ECL? 700hpa winds are currently feeding rain to central nsw from the Indian Ocean.

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#1440248 - 04/11/2017 18:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hasn't even formed as yet.

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#1440249 - 04/11/2017 18:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
IMO a true ECL is a wobbling multi-cored low that retrogrades towards the coast.

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#1440250 - 04/11/2017 18:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
IMO a true ECL is a wobbling multi-cored low that retrogrades towards the coast.


ACCESS T has it as a multi-cored; with the 2nd core moving north along the coast Mon-into Tues.


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#1440251 - 04/11/2017 18:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
I think you missed my point. June 2007 and April 2015 both had one low that spun multiple eddys on to the coast. It's well documented.

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#1440252 - 04/11/2017 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 487
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Also that low just keeps moving east.

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#1440253 - 04/11/2017 18:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6623
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I guess, technically, you could say it could become an ECL as a small low does appear form on the end of the trough, but only very briefly. Looks to remain very elongated (troughy) though for the most part. Either way, the moisture infeed is there for this passing trough which is good. Bad news is that after this trough there is nothing but a giant ridge planted over the country. Very wet to Australia's immediate north but no triggers closer to home to filter any of that moisture down through Oz, unfortunately.

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#1440271 - 04/11/2017 21:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
morts Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/01/2017
Posts: 1
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
if the waters to the north of Australia are warming up, then that's a good sign, now we need the Pacific to keep cooling and the Indian Ocean to start warming. A lot of people in the agriculture sector will be having their fingers and toes crossed for a wet summer.


If they are cropping then a wet 2nd half of January onwards maybe but certainly minimal rains for the next couple of months.

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#1440287 - 05/11/2017 00:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: morts]
Pete R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/02/2002
Posts: 52
Loc: Mendooran
Originally Posted By: morts
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
if the waters to the north of Australia are warming up, then that's a good sign, now we need the Pacific to keep cooling and the Indian Ocean to start warming. A lot of people in the agriculture sector will be having their fingers and toes crossed for a wet summer.


If they are cropping then a wet 2nd half of January onwards maybe but certainly minimal rains for the next couple of months.


Unless Summer cropping which means rains now would be good!! lol

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#1440297 - 05/11/2017 09:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
Models have a blocking pattern setting up in the Tasman Sea from late this week, in 2010 there was a wet October and then it went fairly quiet before the rains returned with a vengeance in December.

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#1440319 - 05/11/2017 13:17 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
We are pretty screwed down here.. It has been a bad year especially the last 6 months! And October did us no favours either with the wet being focused in QLD and northern NSW and this current developing system that will drench parts of NSW looks to bypass Victoria as well (again).

Some parts of Victoria it has been the driest May to October period on record.

I'm not saying this is a direct influence of ENSO however the warm neutral most of Winter (mostly first half) didn't help, the cold anomalies in eastern WA (almost Pos IOD set up) hasn't helped and the SAM being positive most of "cool season" has also not helped. Even with ENSO moving closer to a La Nina it has done nothing for us down here still and to make things worse it looks like the first half of November looks very dry down here enhanced by a prolonged warm to hot spell.

This is now starting to look like the worst fire season since Black Saturday 2008/09 Summer unless we get decent rain later in November and December.

http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...=6month&area=vc


Edited by _Johnno_ (05/11/2017 13:24)
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#1440329 - 05/11/2017 13:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
It's a well know fact the BOM have confirmed and said this many times (even in their last climate video outlook) during a cool neutral or La nina periods heatwaves are enhanced down here in Victoria last longer... More blocks which we have already started to see the last 6 weeks and another one the next 10 days.

I Don't have a good feeling about this Summer (here in Vic) especially knowing this information and on the back of a dry Winter and dry Spring.


Edited by _Johnno_ (05/11/2017 13:39)
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#1440560 - 06/11/2017 18:26 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
What are peoples thoughts on when we get enhanced rainfall chances in the SE of the country (lets say NSW generally) with reference to the MJO..... During the active phase of the MJO or inactive phase? Ive heard some say that in the peak monsoon season, the MJO keeps the moisture north and precipitates it, so by default it would seem then we may be more likely to get better rainfall in the south between active periods of the MJO when tropical moisture is activated by triggers further south?? thoughts?

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#1440633 - 06/11/2017 23:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
I wonder if we will just get a cool neutral this year like 2016?

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#1440651 - 07/11/2017 08:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2757
Loc: Buderim
Overall the westerly activity in this latest event seems to have been well short of what was forecast. But it does appear we have a genuine westerly wind burst at the tail end of this event.



This WWB does seem to be generating a warm Kelvin wave, although we need to see if the subsurface warming propagates further east to be sure.



Although TAO shows substantial warming in the central region, BOM have surprised me by reporting a drop in nino 3.4 from 0.29 to 0.37. One potential issue is TAO coverage. A quick check between satellite SSTs and TAO bouy locations suggest that the bouys near the warm spot in TAO around 160W are in warm spots with cool water either side, so this warm spot is likely overstated. On the flip side bouys near 120W and 180 seem to be situated in cool spots.

Going forward GFS shows a strong surge in trade winds next week. EC is a little weaker but still substantial. GFS, EC and CFS all suggest this surge will be short lived with westerly anomalies returning next week. This is consistent with an MJO forecast showing a weak MJO quickly moving through the La Nina favourable Indian Ocean phases, although GFS suggests the MJO signal will die as it reaches the Pacific.

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#1440663 - 07/11/2017 09:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
The atmosphere doesn't seem to want to couple with the cooling ocean. We're not seeing consistent above average trade winds, it's just stop and start, that's why I'm starting to think cool neutral rather than La Nina.


Edited by Chris Stumer (07/11/2017 09:46)

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#1440737 - 07/11/2017 18:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Overall the westerly activity in this latest event seems to have been well short of what was forecast. But it does appear we have a genuine westerly wind burst at the tail end of this event.



This WWB does seem to be generating a warm Kelvin wave, although we need to see if the subsurface warming propagates further east to be sure.



Although TAO shows substantial warming in the central region, BOM have surprised me by reporting a drop in nino 3.4 from 0.29 to 0.37. One potential issue is TAO coverage. A quick check between satellite SSTs and TAO bouy locations suggest that the bouys near the warm spot in TAO around 160W are in warm spots with cool water either side, so this warm spot is likely overstated. On the flip side bouys near 120W and 180 seem to be situated in cool spots.

Going forward GFS shows a strong surge in trade winds next week. EC is a little weaker but still substantial. GFS, EC and CFS all suggest this surge will be short lived with westerly anomalies returning next week. This is consistent with an MJO forecast showing a weak MJO quickly moving through the La Nina favourable Indian Ocean phases, although GFS suggests the MJO signal will die as it reaches the Pacific.


I'm confused.. Is the Pacific warming? Warm neutral now? from 0.29 to 0.37?
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#1440804 - 08/11/2017 13:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5079
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: KevD
With this one the biggest thing for me right now is the quick-developing warmer waters in the west. While we are still debating how this event will unfold, the follow up looks like it is already starting to show:


That subsurface chart is interesting for sure; what're your thoughts on it? I couldn't quite understand your comment. Cheers.


Sorry for the delay getting back to you. I meant that I can see the transition from west to east when you get the warmer (or colder) pattern changes appearing. I made a very rough sketch below on latest charts to explain what I mean:


I've circled in red the follow up I was referring to that is already showing its hand - I'd be thinking that we will see a gradual progression of that warmer pattern to the east. You can see the colder water to the east already starting to weaken on its western edge. Of course natural patterns might throw a (natural) spanner in the works and override this influence, but usually that warmer water in the east is the first sign I see of the next bigger pattern starting to move in.

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#1440829 - 08/11/2017 20:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1611
Loc: Kingaroy
The warmer water in the west could be a sign of the Walker Circulation is starting to gain strength.

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