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#1440990 - 11/11/2017 17:12 Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ok, seems our benign, but pleasant, weather will come to an end later this week, with a decent upper cold pool screaming in from the SE and combining with a surface thermal trough.

The cold pool gets to inland NSW and develops a low which deepens. The only model not really interested is GFS at this stage.

Widespread showers, periods of rain and severe storms are likely - with plenty of moisture around. The trough helps by dragging in long-fetch easterlies resulting in a very unstable onshore flow, which will produce stream showers from the Illawarra north, primarily heavier about the north coast.

Still too far out to be certain, but looks like a pretty unstable atmosphere is on the cards (TT's of 50 - 60 across a large swathe of NSW over next weekend)!

Here's the model spread:















Edited by Seabreeze (20/11/2017 22:35)
Edit Reason: shortened by a day

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#1441010 - 11/11/2017 21:13 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looking forward to being in on the action in NSW/ACT at this time next week; I fly from Melbourne to Sydney on Friday for a few days, and I'll be based at Parramatta. Just hoping for at least some warm sunshine and blue skies, especially for any sightseeing I'll be doing (eg. the CBD, Sydney Harbour, the Blue Mountains, etc) and decent, photogenic, severe thunderstorm action instead of just overcast with heavy rain. smile

I'll be watching this thread and the models closely, and I'll be sure to contribute.


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/11/2017 21:13)

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#1441024 - 12/11/2017 14:19 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Models up and down for this event, unlike the previous trough & low. Not giving me much confidence.

Latest EC only likes 18mm over the next 10 days for much of coast. Usual hotspots NE NSW however do very well. We'll see what the PM runs say.

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#1441027 - 12/11/2017 17:14 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Dunno how an OS model updates before Aussie models do....

Anyways - and just like that, GFS triggers it's "troughy" switch and bam it's very keen:




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#1441029 - 12/11/2017 18:04 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5289
Loc: Dural
10 mm's. 50 mm's.
I'll take either atm tbh.

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#1441033 - 12/11/2017 18:55 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Online   content
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3597
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The BOM has scaled back the rain. Now just 3-10mm for Sydney (mostly on the weekend), a bit more for Wollongong, a bit less for Newcastle. Bathurst does better with 7-19.

It's early days yet. GFS certainly looks more bullish. It's also hinting at a repeat performance later next week.

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#1441039 - 12/11/2017 20:54 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Steve777]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The BOM has scaled back the rain. Now just 3-10mm for Sydney (mostly on the weekend), a bit more for Wollongong, a bit less for Newcastle. Bathurst does better with 7-19.

It's early days yet. GFS certainly looks more bullish. It's also hinting at a repeat performance later next week.


GFS was the better permforming (gasp) model for the Tasman Low, so Iím keen to see what it does now that itís sort of onboard.

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#1441065 - 13/11/2017 12:17 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1331
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
The inland will do better out this event I would imagine, which will make a lot of people happy. It looks like the upper low will have a diminishing impact on the coast as it moves north. Having said that, we are still a way off, so all the inputs are there to pay up some good rain anywhere in eastern NSW.

I note the patten at the end of Access latest run has the nice little horseshoe shaped trough setup that used to be so common. High in the bite, trough through WA and NSW. This could be a good storm summer!!

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#1441066 - 13/11/2017 12:23 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
GFS all over the shop again - 12z run not interested; 18z interested.



12z ACCESS certainly looks great for anywhere west of ranges; a real "drought-breaker" this could be.


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#1441073 - 13/11/2017 13:29 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1447
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
I hope so GringosRain,our creeks need a good flush,and the cattle dams need filling.
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#1441111 - 13/11/2017 21:05 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3022
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
The less rain the better, as this will mean better storms and less of a cloud fest.

The main issue with this event that is preventing it going widespread severe is that the Tasman Sea ridges reluctance to budge, in fact the ridge strengthens again Sunday / Monday.

This ridge is keeping the low rather vertically stacked = lighter mid to upper winds than we would otherwise expect. EC is tad more encouraging with mid level winds.

None the less early storms and those working into clear air (which will be an issue ) may be decent hailers.

Got Friday off so all batteries will go on charge in prep.
_________________________
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#1441135 - 14/11/2017 11:18 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Quick model update:

EC back with decent falls for most of NSW except Metro & Hunter



ACCESS R



WxZone's own model pretty bullish for southern highlands



CMC similar to EC



GFS pulling it back inland:



ACCESS G not too bad for most areas


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#1441138 - 14/11/2017 11:28 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6438
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Will be an interesting setup whatever does occur, I'm just going to wait until there's greater certainty in the models.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1441205 - 15/11/2017 10:15 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
EC looking better overnight, going for up to 50mm for the Illawarra/Sholhaven for the next 3 days and up to 75mm for the event.



Access G looks amazing


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#1441208 - 15/11/2017 10:21 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Even GFS looks ok, pretty stormy looking at the chicken pox rainfall prog


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#1441220 - 15/11/2017 12:55 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Moisture looking great - DP's steady at 16; nice and warm. Trough sure is sucking in those easterlies.

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#1441224 - 15/11/2017 13:18 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: WxZone
Stormy end to the week in eastern Australia
Ben Domensino, Wednesday November 15, 2017 - 12:50 EDT
A prolonged spell of stormy weather will affect Australia's eastern states during the second half of this week.

A slow moving low pressure trough that has produced daily showers and storms in western and central Australia during the past week will start to move across eastern Australia from today.

The eastward-moving trough will interact with a feed of tropical moisture and an upper level low pressure system to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms in parts of Queensland, NSW, the ACT, Victoria and SA between now and Sunday.

On Wednesday, most of the showers and storms will occur near the trough in western parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria and eastern districts of SA.

The heaviest falls are likely to occur near the upper low in western Victoria during the afternoon and overnight. The impending deluge has prompted a severe weather warning for flash flooding in Victoria's Mallee, Wimmera and South West Districts.

During Thursday and Friday, the near-stationary upper low will continue to produce rain in western Victoria as the slow-moving trough causes showers and storms to spread across NSW, the ACT and Queensland.

There is potential for parts of western Victoria to amass more than 100mm of rain by Friday night, although most of this will fall by Thursday evening.

On the weekend, the upper low will move towards the northeast, causing showers and thunderstorms to continue over a large swathe of NSW and Queensland, while conditions start to ease in Victoria.

Rainfall totals from this system are difficult to predict for Australia's eastern states as they will be heavily dependent on the location and intensity of storms. Many areas in the eastern half of NSW and central/southern Queensland should pick up more than 30mm of rain by Sunday night and some areas could see 50-100mm during this time.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to affect multiple states during the next five days, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest warnings here: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/warnings.jsp


Edited by Kino (15/11/2017 13:18)

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#1441234 - 15/11/2017 14:19 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9844
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
A day before the topic - BUT some good storms underway in the NW of the state. Especially around the Warrumbungle & Kaputar regions.

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#1441301 - 16/11/2017 10:07 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5823
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looking forward to this event guys, even though it's already well underway here in Victoria lol. Hoping for some great storm action this weekend in Sydney, can't wait for my flight out of Melbourne tomorrow morning!! grin

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#1441302 - 16/11/2017 10:25 Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain [Re: Kino]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1272
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Big slab of ACCA's around this morning - great sign! Action progged to start later tonight, wouldn't surprise me if we had an overnight storm tbh.

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