Ok, seems our benign, but pleasant, weather will come to an end later this week, with a decent upper cold pool screaming in from the SE and combining with a surface thermal trough.

The cold pool gets to inland NSW and develops a low which deepens. The only model not really interested is GFS at this stage.

Widespread showers, periods of rain and severe storms are likely - with plenty of moisture around. The trough helps by dragging in long-fetch easterlies resulting in a very unstable onshore flow, which will produce stream showers from the Illawarra north, primarily heavier about the north coast.

Still too far out to be certain, but looks like a pretty unstable atmosphere is on the cards (TT's of 50 - 60 across a large swathe of NSW over next weekend)!

Here's the model spread:

Looking forward to being in on the action in NSW/ACT at this time next week; I fly from Melbourne to Sydney on Friday for a few days, and I'll be based at Parramatta. Just hoping for at least some warm sunshine and blue skies, especially for any sightseeing I'll be doing (eg. the CBD, Sydney Harbour, the Blue Mountains, etc) and decent, photogenic, severe thunderstorm action instead of just overcast with heavy rain.

I'll be watching this thread and the models closely, and I'll be sure to contribute.

Models up and down for this event, unlike the previous trough & low. Not giving me much confidence.

Latest EC only likes 18mm over the next 10 days for much of coast. Usual hotspots NE NSW however do very well. We'll see what the PM runs say.

Dunno how an OS model updates before Aussie models do....

Anyways - and just like that, GFS triggers it's "troughy" switch and bam it's very keen:

10 mm's. 50 mm's.
I'll take either atm tbh.

The BOM has scaled back the rain. Now just 3-10mm for Sydney (mostly on the weekend), a bit more for Wollongong, a bit less for Newcastle. Bathurst does better with 7-19.

It's early days yet. GFS certainly looks more bullish. It's also hinting at a repeat performance later next week.

GFS was the better permforming (gasp) model for the Tasman Low, so I’m keen to see what it does now that it’s sort of onboard.

The inland will do better out this event I would imagine, which will make a lot of people happy. It looks like the upper low will have a diminishing impact on the coast as it moves north. Having said that, we are still a way off, so all the inputs are there to pay up some good rain anywhere in eastern NSW.

I note the patten at the end of Access latest run has the nice little horseshoe shaped trough setup that used to be so common. High in the bite, trough through WA and NSW. This could be a good storm summer!!

GFS all over the shop again - 12z run not interested; 18z interested.



12z ACCESS certainly looks great for anywhere west of ranges; a real "drought-breaker" this could be.

I hope so GringosRain,our creeks need a good flush,and the cattle dams need filling.

The less rain the better, as this will mean better storms and less of a cloud fest.

The main issue with this event that is preventing it going widespread severe is that the Tasman Sea ridges reluctance to budge, in fact the ridge strengthens again Sunday / Monday.

This ridge is keeping the low rather vertically stacked = lighter mid to upper winds than we would otherwise expect. EC is tad more encouraging with mid level winds.

None the less early storms and those working into clear air (which will be an issue ) may be decent hailers.

Got Friday off so all batteries will go on charge in prep.

Quick model update:

EC back with decent falls for most of NSW except Metro & Hunter



ACCESS R



WxZone's own model pretty bullish for southern highlands



CMC similar to EC



GFS pulling it back inland:



ACCESS G not too bad for most areas

Will be an interesting setup whatever does occur, I'm just going to wait until there's greater certainty in the models.

EC looking better overnight, going for up to 50mm for the Illawarra/Sholhaven for the next 3 days and up to 75mm for the event.



Access G looks amazing

Even GFS looks ok, pretty stormy looking at the chicken pox rainfall prog

Moisture looking great - DP's steady at 16; nice and warm. Trough sure is sucking in those easterlies.

A day before the topic - BUT some good storms underway in the NW of the state. Especially around the Warrumbungle & Kaputar regions.

Looking forward to this event guys, even though it's already well underway here in Victoria lol. Hoping for some great storm action this weekend in Sydney, can't wait for my flight out of Melbourne tomorrow morning!!

Big slab of ACCA's around this morning - great sign! Action progged to start later tonight, wouldn't surprise me if we had an overnight storm tbh.

DaveM, looks like rain is getting close to you....?

Radar looks great to the NW - hopefully we will see some sparks soon. I think we may see rain well before night.

Hi GR - just really really light stuff. Still it feels nice

Light rain forming to the west of the Southern Highlands in front of the main band that Dave is getting.

Afternoon all, been raining steadily here at Cooks Gap on and off all day

Hope it keeps up Max

Actually up to 2.2mm now and the rain is heavier.

We're up to just over 12mm so far for today, and there is some lightning starting to show up on the tracker just to the West of Dubbo. Hopefully that storm activity will also move this way as well

12mm - niiiice

About 4 here but showers backing right off now. Hopefully a storm later this evening.

You have nearly 6mm now Dave.

Yep WR but stopped now. nothing more forseeable unless we get a storm.

The rain has stopped here for now and the sun is out. Nice line of storms visible just to the West, so hopefully this heating helps. BoM is saying we're an even higher chance of rain tomorrow. Still at 12mm and holding, but hopefully plenty more to come

Good stuff Max.
It's about time you started pulling your weight and getting some wet stuff!!
Some very light stuff has started falling here now, with some moderate stuff following up soon I hope.

Rainfall totals for Sydney upgraded just a little for tomorrow. That's a good sign.

Shoulda left for the highlands earlier, now I will have to drive up the pass in the rain which means I have to drive slower.

But the benefit of the rain in general greatly outweighs this inconvenience.

Spitting here now, hopefully fattens up later.

Couldn't agree more.
Rain for anyone is a good thing at this stage. Pity you're up for a drive in the rain. Can actually be enjoyable if you drive carefully.
Rain a bit steadier here now.

Well so far it has been a light sprinkle at best for today, and the radar is showing the rain clouds breaking up for now. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

A deluge here and thunder no hail as yet

Great looking storm just to my West here now, wish I knew how to get a photo off my phone onto here! The thunder sounds like bombs going off

Just measured 22 mms in half an hour about 5pm,it dropped heavy for a while,no wind,a few booms of thunder now and again.

I don't mind driving the rain (which was light anyway) but I can't corner as fast on Mac Pass as I can in dry. But I was stuck behind a truck most of the way anyway so doesn't matter.

52 MMS at Cessnock airport it must have pounded down there,

GR,Anything over at Quorrobolong.mate

Geez, some good totals up there Stormy.
Hopefully, it runs off into the right places.

Yes heavy rain in a slow moving storm from west,Homer,it kept back building to the NW then moved over us.

3mm in East Maitland. Amazing little cell must have smashed Cessnock!Whats going on over there?. Roofs and trees down the other week in Kurri!
Need more rain NW. Very Dry. Wybong, Goulburn and Merriwa rivers almost stopped.

yes we had 24mm here, very nice. 40mm a bit further west along the range. Wasnt expecting much today so that is an excellent start. Really hoping a very slow moving convergence area can setup like this again tomorrow. Need a 75mm+ event across the whole area like cessnock airport today to really put a fresh down the creeks and into the dams. Little bits are nice but is doing nothing so far for the storages. Its lovely and fresh though so grateful for our little turn today.... Frogs alive!

Need more rain NW. Very Dry. Wybong, Goulburn and Merriwa rivers almost stopped.Yes that is the trouble, these storms are hit and miss,we need wide spread rain.

Parkes getting smashed by a slow moving complex, which is forecast to progress east. This is usually how droughts break, isolated storms at first followed by widespread rain. Bits and pieces every day will add up anyway, the troughs are here to stay for a while and the models look wet.

Long Road Home,Good I love this humid thundery weather.

Been a bit of a dud here. Nothing to report.
Duane

A bit more sun than I was expecting. Hopefully it can enhance whatever is to come. Hopefully it has cleared by the time the cricket starts tonight.

It was sunny early but soon closed in. The NE'er is barrelling away, having done so all night. We got a bit of light rain late yesterday afternoon - nowhere in Sydney has had more than a millimeter so far.

22/17 here - hopefully should allow something to happen.

Massive tornado reported near Wagga yesterday - amazing pics.

We had a big storm that came here about 3 am it was an absolute cracker!!

Lot's of big bangs and solid precip. About 12mm in the storm. The storm was quite large in area and rained over us for a good hour or 2.

Not surprised we got it - was so very sticky at tennis with a lot of people sweating madly.

Still sticky today - hoping we all get to see some rain/storm action today.

Sydney radar is starting to look interesting.

Just getting a shower now from a small cell that popped up nearby. Mostly blue sky around except directly overhead.

The cell near Oberon looks lightning-active. Hopefully there will be more development, and closer to home, as the day wears on.

Quick heavy shower here now - and looking black as towards the west. Radar shows storms building - hoping this muck doesn't kill them off.

The sky in Bathurst looks very bubbly atm!!

Yes Homer, http://centralwestflying.com/web-cam/

Yes Homer it quite that.

MSI is way up today. Long time posters in here know what that is

Showers forming immediately to my eastish at the moment - VERY close to here but developing and moving eastwards. I see showers very near me but not actually here.

Might work a tiny bit more westy later I hope.

The big question about the developing storms is will they make it over the ranges, and down into the Sydney Basin today?

Well a heavy shower just popped up west of Homebush so I guess it's possible that storms might form anywhere today.

I just watched that drift past in the distance on my lunch break. No shortage of convective looking clouds around out there, feels like we should get something, we shall see.

At least we don't have to worry about rain at the game tomorrow night now!

I can tell you - this cluster of storms off the coast are MASSIVE!

Just noticed that cell off the coast of kiama is still there. Saw it this morning at about 9am. Looks like it barely moved.

A storm chase into the Blue Mountains looks the go today, but it won't be me, unfortunately.

Yes there is some rippers out there,they are moving down from the NW but there is some moving all directions.very humid here I am watching the storm on Putty,if it back builds a little further north I might be in line.

We had another 16mm here fom a storm just after 1am this morning

So when will the storms start forming in the metro? Showers seem to pop up then ease and dissipate immediately.

Green Cape has had almost 100 mm's since 6 am!!

that might be why it is called Green Cape,the grass would be green there at the moment.

Noreaster looks to be killing action as it nears the coast.

Yep.

shear is struggling to push them through. Instability is there. Could be some good turning in some of those storms....

Knowing our luck here, we won't see a drop of rain today. We sit on the letter w in the word Bankstown on the Terry Hills 128km radar scan. One could assume we have a hidden laser beam here that zaps any rain clouds headed our way.

Anyone around Kiama looking east? Might see a waterspout in that beast, and it's slowly moving ashore too

That storm has been there all day basically. There must have been some incredible rainfall totals under that, considering what Green Cape has recorded.

Those persistent strong NE'ers mean that beachgoers will be in for a chilly surprise if they go in the water: MHL Sea temps

Didn't see it drop below the current level of 17.0 during Winter.

Ugh - everything going around us here - can hear thunder and it's black to the west but NADDA here

Sideways rain then a solid dump of small hail at Woden, ACT from that black-cored cell. Lots of shredded leaves, bark and small branches on the road, and drifts of hail on the grass verge of the road afterwards.

A storm has popped up in the Sydney basin near Windsor.

Nothing much here. It's a rather unpleasant, overcast, windy day and actually feels a bit chilly in the wind.

Storms that do form don't seem to be moving much. To get a storm, I think you need to have one pop up nearby.

Yeh. And it died in the amount of time it took you to type that post.

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued at 3:20PM which takes in a large swathe of NSW including most of the Tablelands and slopes and the Western parts of the Hunter, Metro and Illawarra, for LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WINDS.

A detailed warning has been issued for the area between Oberon and Taralga and the Taralga district (north of Goulburn).

The N inland of the state is firing away, sat pic very explosive amazing to watch on loop.

You would think the coast for Hunter and Met will be no chop.....but yesterday a storm just brewed up here when it seemed fairly unlikely.

Sense that I should write the arvo off up here, but we may just get a surprise.....

The low retrograding and staying put is killing our chances on the coast - we're getting the wafty leftovers. Hopefully that will change overnight.

Could be some flash flooding if that heavy rainfall offshore on the South Coast moves inland. It looks like its already dropped in excess of 200mm just offshore.

Sydney Storm Shield in full force today, everything looks so promising until it hits the Basin.

Steady fat drops here but not much else. Hopefully that area of convergence off the coast drifts over us tonight.

nice pick up!

It is drifting slowly west - may even hit us. LFC is lowering suggesting something driving lift.

There were some nice storms in the Highlands today, accompanied with torrential rain and tiny hail at one point.

Did you see the Blue Mountains hail pics? Huge suff.

Nah I didn't, can you send a link?

Huge core of red just exploded over coast to south and moving w/n/nw. We may see some substantial falls shortly or nothing lol.

THUNDER! Fresh cell developing.

Nothing here still, but it's torrential at Shellharbour and Oak Flats. Hope it smashes the Airport gauge.

DANG nice bright flash then and deep thunder. C'monnnnnn.

The beast down off Kiama is coming on shore there will be a huge rainfall in it.

Evening all, just thought I'd let you know that we're currently having a pearler of a hailstorm here at the farm. Not big hail, but lots of it. Once I can get outside I'll get some figures out of the rain gauge for you

Maybe share some photos too?

There are going to be some massive falls along the escarpment tonight if this continues....been red over there for almost an hour.

Really firing up across the Illawarra now plenty of thunder and lightning and RED radar.

Mate, you're gonna have to teach me how to do that

Wow it's smashing down back at home! Think I can safely put another storm on the signature.

Hey Max you have to put it onto a photo hosting website like Flickr for example.

Still doing pretty well here too

Awesome! Only 5mm on my part of the highlands that I am at now.

Yeh, some really interesting development over the Illawarra now!
So jealous.

31mm in one hour at Kiama.

https://www.facebook.com/HigginsStormCha...?type=3&theater

I take it that this is the tornado Duane was talking about!

Saw this one too:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1764043880335299&id=279170198822682

Princess motorway would be insane to drive on right now near the Wollongong area based on that radar!

I really wish I went down there this arvo.

I can see the lightning from up here!

Been storming now for over 2 hours - will be some massive falls around, hopefully no landslides.

Been going constantly here at the farm for nearly 4 hours!!!! Be interesting to see the totals in the morning.

Hey g'day guys! Reporting from Parramatta, having arrived safely in Sydney from Melbourne. And I was able to get in amongst the storm action that's been impacting Victoria and NSW/ACT. Here's my story; associated BOM observations will come soon.

I left my home in Belgrave in Melbourne's Dandenong Ranges at about 6:45am, and reached Melbourne Airport - via train to the City and then the Skybus from Southern Cross - just before 9am.

The flight to Sydney departed at about 11am and arrived just before 12:30pm. Following lunch at Kingsford-Smith I then proceeded by train to Circular Quay and then by ferry to Parramatta. I finally reached my accommodation at about 4:45pm, roughly 10 hours after leaving home.

Weatherwise it wasn't my best storm day, but it was my BEST day in terms of watching and photographing storms from the air!! And it was my best storm day to date here in Sydney! =D

Temperatures in both Melbourne and Sydney ranged from the mid/high teens in the morning to the mid/high twenties in the afternoon, with humidity to boot; the muggy conditions were offset by cool breezes. Based on current BOM observations it ranged from 16.4°C to 26.5°C in Melbourne, and from 19.1°C to 23.5°C in Sydney.

Apart from misty fog in Belgrave, it was a mostly sunny morning in Melbourne. But with such high humidity and with the atmosphere highly unstable, showers and thunderstorms began developing to Melbourne's north during the journey to Tullamarine!

Convection increased dramatically while I waited at Melbourne Airport for my flight. It got very dark towards Wallan as a thunderstorm approached after 10:30am; I didn't see any lightning, but it was detected on this cell on the Weatherzone tracker.

The cell weakened at about 11am, dropping only light spitting rain (while I waited on the tarmac for the plane to leave), but another thunderstorm suddenly erupted around the same time. Thankfully this new storm cell didn't break lose over the Melbourne metropolitan area until it was well south of the airport.

Once the plane finally took off, the fun really began! Firstly we dodged an intense storm over Yan Yean (very heavy rain and possible hail cascading from the cell's belly, with a bit of a gutter and a possible microburst associated with it).

As soon as the plane made it around the northern side of this storm and over the Great Dividing Range, I was treated to an incredible demonstration of nature's power! The view from the plane window during the remainder of the flight showed extensive cloudcover with dozens of cumulus congestus and enormous cumulonimbus towers; the biggest and most violent thunderstorms punched high into the stratosphere!! I even got to literally see some storms forming before my very eyes, within minutes!

The flight was diverted somewhat due to all this convective activity, and because of all the cloudcover I had little visual reference of where I was; I couldn't even see Corryong or Canberra!

The most visually spectacular thunderstorm I saw during the flight was of course the very same storm cell that has raging almost non-stop for many hours just offshore in the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean from Wollongong and Kiama. I first sighted the storm between about Tumut and Canberra (at about 11:45am), and from afar it was MASSIVE and INTENSE!!! I even got to see the base of this stubborn beast during the final approach into Sydney Airport after flying over the northern Illawarra region, and I was wondering to myself if there were any waterspouts churning underneath it!

The flight was mostly smooth, although the plane flew into thick cumulus cloud between Campbelltown and the Royal National Park, making the decent into Sydney bumpy for a couple of minutes.

Once I finally made it into Sydney, the weather was mostly sunny for a couple of hours. But by the time I boarded the ferry from Circular Quay to Parramatta at 2pm, it turned cloudy and got dark to the west as severe thunderstorms approached Sydney and the Blue Mountains from the Central Tablelands.

These storms dissipated well before reaching Sydney unfortunately. Plenty of storms kept forming or at least trying to form to the west, northwest and southwest throughout the afternoon and into the evening, but very few of these cells survived long enough to make it even into Western Sydney sadly, so yes it seems the Sydney Storm Shield was online.

So I was left with a humid, breezy, mostly cloudy afternoon and evening with only one or two spots of rain. No beautiful sunset this evening btw.

But at least my journey on the Parramatta River Ferry was still enjoyable, all the more by the sight of the powerful storm that was and STILL IS holding together and refusing to die near Wollongong to the south! And I even got to see a few lightning flashes after 9pm as the storm finally moved into the Illawarra.

Currently around 21°C here in Parramatta, and 20°C in the City. Happy to be back in Sydney for the sixth time.

Lots of pics to come in coming days via Instagram.

61mm of rain at home since 9am with Dombarton Loop getting 116mm, they are some big totals!

Some pretty impressive totals there in the Illawarra. Some big totals in the NW slopes & plains also, e.g. Narrabri and Gunnedah 60 & 59.

Sydney missed out. There seems to have been no rain overnight, with totals from yesterday afternoon all a millimetre or less. If a cell didn't develop over your head or at least nearby, you missed out.

There's a chain of showers marching just off the coast from the NE, coming ashore near Port Kembla.

------

Mostly cloudy (mid to high level) with patches of blue sky and some sunny breaks. Windy and about 20-21.

Asf excellent report. also max, kino n Reilly good to read
Sadly here bugger all last night storms I was hoping for from NW yesterday just fizzed. We did get some thunder n lighting from about 8pm but only light rain from about 9 or 10.

This morning though we are under that huge cloud band running down the GDR and for about an hour now it’s been just the loveliest rain. Just RAIN nice!!

Steve those nws&p numbers are good too

Morning folks, just letting you know we've had no power since 10 o'clock last night and it's still out. The transformer across the road took a hit, and of course the power company, that charges extortionate rates, refuses point blank to despatch a repair crew, as usual. But that's a rant for the local members. Once I get a chance I'll check the gauges and get some rainfall figues happening.

Likely to break the 100mm at home before 9am! Flogging down!

A tale of two cities, Wollongong has been right in the path of that rain train for ages, meanwhile 'back at the ranch' ie Sydney, we have had next to nothing, grrr.

So here at the farm 55mm overnight. Down at the mates place on Cope Road about 10km away they had 100mm. It's been patchy here, but widespread falls above 25mm. Very useful indeed!

One difference from yesterday: the shower cells are moving, both in the coastal band and the one over the Tablelands and slopes, roughly NNE to SSW. This means the rain will be shared around a bit more.

BoM have downgraded the forecast to a shower or two.

Combined total of 54.2 mm for the month of October and so far in November since the dry spell ended last month for the Bankstown AWS from small accumulations.

Highest daily fall so far since October was 13 mm on the 21st October. Total so far for 2017 is 595.0 mm. Average rainfall to November is 814.9mm.

Definitely room for improvement in this area.

We got our whole monthly rainfall in just over 12 hours. Now above averagw for the first time in 6 months!

One fall of rain - and we're now above average for Nov and also for the year. Very La Nina'ish despite the fact that the BoM haven't ticked it off as yet.

Bellambi and Kiama not quite there as yet.

Absolutely bucketing down a little while ago in the Kurrajong district. Almost whiteout conditions for a little while. I'd have pulled over to the side of the road except that there was nowhere going up Bellbird Hill to stop. Thunder and lightning to go with it.

It's eased off and brightened up now. 14 degrees on the car thermometer.

Just drove thru the bells line of road. Surprised there is still piles of hail 24hrs after the event

This has been an eventful past two days for me.
There's been heavy rain 30 km's to my south east and 20 km's to my west. Falls of over 100 mm's not far south in the Illawarra as well. I have not received one single drop at all. Not one!!

Anyway, I'm really happy for those in the Central West/Tablelands who have had some decent falls, like Dave, Max, and all our Orange and Lithgow friends. Good stuff!!

Well hopefully you make up for it next event.

Sure was a drenching down here at home, drains are still audibly flowing with water and the usual floodplains are very much flooded. Also the creek down the road is a raging torrent. All this suggests to me we had more than 100mm in this local area. There's a PWS near me that reported 168mm but I'm slightly suspicious about that.

Cheers WR. Swings and roundabouts I suppose.
Disappointed I didn't get anything as I said, but the more pertinent point was how localised the heavy falls have been, and how it can be so hit and miss in events like these.
Not complaining though. I'll get my good times for sure.
Definitely some decent falls down your way!!!
Half ya luck!!

Yay! I've just received my first 20 drops of rain.

Careful if you're out and about in Sydney tonight. It might get a bit windy:

First light shower of the day here. Hopefully get a couple more. Didn't last long just enough to wet the concrete.

There seems to have been no rain over Sydney.

Here's a view near Kurrajong just before the storm I mentioned earlier hit. There was some rumbling thunder and it was just starting to rain. It was pretty dark for early afternoon. Unfortunatey messy low- and mid-level cloud blocked any view of structure:



Nearby Kurrajong Heights has had 27mm since 9:00 today, most of which probably fell in a short time in that storm.

It bucketed down here for about a minute 20 minutes ago, Woo Hoo...then nothing. No sign of anymore atm I'm afraid.

Just looking at the satpic and NSW composite radar again. VERY interesting. I'm wondering if we're in for another round in the early hours of the morning.

Cheers DaveM. Great reports all around gang, keep 'em comin'.

I spent the whole day up in the Blue Mountains. Or should I say the "Grey Mountains" lol. My story for today...

I left my accommodation in Parramatta at about 9am, and boarded the City-Mount Victoria train at 9:45am. From there it was a roughly 2-hour train ride through the urban sprawl of Western Sydney (including Blacktown, Penrith and across the Nepean River to Emu Plains) and over the Blue Mountains to Katoomba and Leura.

After spending roughly 4 hours aboard the Explorer Bus and doing all four attractions at Scenic World (Rainforest Walkway, Cableway, Skyway and Railway), I returned to Sydney at 4pm and arrived back at my accommodation in Parramatta at about 6:45pm.

The weather was even worse than yesterday, but that made the day all the more special and exciting!

All day long it was a cloudy, gloomy day; the only glimpses of sun and blue sky I caught were earlier this morning and again later this arvo here in the Sydney metropolitan area. Temperatures ranged from about 19-20°C this morning to 22-23°C this arvo. It was humid, but a fresh easterly/northeasterly breeze made conditions a tad more pleasant.

Up in the Blue Mountains it was totally dark and overcast, and much, much cooler than in Sydney. Temperatures stayed between about 10-16°C, so good thing I rugged up! And during much of my time at Katoomba and Leura thick ghostly fog filled the Jamieson Valley, sometimes blowing up onto the higher plateau.

Showers and thunderstorms began developing soon after 10:30am, by which time I was already up on the Blue Mountains plateau and making my way towards Katoomba and Leura.

Shortly after reaching Scenic World at midday the weather began taking a nasty turn. Showers and thunderstorms swept down from the northeast, dropping torrential rain! Despite my best attempts while out bushwalking (particularly down in the lush rainforests of the Jamieson Valley, and near Katoomba Falls) I got wet. but at least I had a wind-cheater and raincoat so wasn't soaked. And the rain wasn't constant, just very heavy with the passing of each shower or storm, but punctuated by drier spells.

I did hear one rumble of thunder btw, and that was at about 3pm at Narrow Neck Lookout, just 20 minutes before another heavy thunderstorm moved in. I didn't see any lightning though, just more dark clouds and more heavy rain. The only gusts of wind I witnessed in the Blue Mountains btw were just as this particular storm was about to hit, while I was on the bus at Echo Point. Otherwise it was virtually windless.

I had fantabulous views of the Jamieson Valley in-between rounds of fog and torrential downpours. And because of the recent heavy rainfall, the Katoomba Falls were a gushing torrent. And before anyone asks, yes I got to see the famous Three Sisters, albeit briefly!!

This was my third trip up to the Blue Mountains, the other two being in July 2010 and January 2012. Sadly, I am yet to experience a beautiful sunny day in the region. It seems that every time I go there, the weather is poor. Hence the nickname "Grey Mountains" lol but hopefully that will change during future trips to Sydney.

As a side note, I am eager to see more of the Blue Mountains. Clearly a day is nowhere near enough time to see what this beautiful region has to offer! Aside from exploring more of Katoomba and Leura, I'd so love to visit other places such as Wentworth Falls, the Megalong Valley, Warragamba Dam and the Grose River Valley.

Currently around 19-20°C in the City and nearby Homebush. I wonder whether those showers blowing in from the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean will make it far enough inland to give Parramatta a burst of rain this evening?

For those of us in Western Sydney (near Parramatta in my case) and not in a position to go too far this weekend this has been a total non event and sitting here looking at the reports from other areas like it is a different country lol

I have not seen even one spot of rain where I live over this event. Low level gloom and clouds for a few days, the sun has finally returned today but at no point has it ever even really looked like spitting here. The bom back tracked and down graded the chance of storms and rain for most of Sydney on a rolling basis.

Storms to the west, south and on the coast...ah well....

Great for all those that got some action. We are actually quite dry here again believe it or not!

Got a heavy shower earlier today as well.

Now you're just rubbing it in!!

Anyway, there's a few showers entering the basin from the east.
Hopefully, I get a drop from one of those, as I planted all my summer vegetable seedlings this morning (yeh, I know..... a little late).
Even though I watered them in, it would be nice if they actually got a little drink of mother nature's juice.

My vegie/herb garden was dry as today. I was anticipating some rain, so kept holding off with the hose. As a result the seedlings were wilting. Gave up waiting today and had the sprinkler on it all afternoon. Geeze those little buggers perk up quickly with a little soaking!

Anyways, finally seeing some persistent thirties appearing at the end of the forecast period for some Sydney locations. About time.

Good report ASF.
You should spend a bit more time in the Blue Mountains if you get the chance. Lots of nice walks and drives. One place you can get to by car is Narrow Neck, a few km from Katoomba, a 'peninsula' between the Jameson and Kanimbla valleys, only tens of metres wide in places. You can drive along a dirt road for about 5km then walk for a further 10. Great views on both sides. The drive to Jenolan Caves (esp Jenolan Road) is beautiful. The Caves are about a 78km drive from Katoomba.

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This event was a bit of a fizzer in Sydney, but the Tablelands, Illawarra and South Coast did very well. OH got a grand total of 3 mm from the event, typical of the rest of Sydney except the Eastern beaches.

Today was a very pleasant, sunny day. It's still having trouble getting much past 23 on the coast and hasn't reached 25 at OH in nearly a fortnight.

It's clouded over now and it looks like there may be some light showers overnight - just stuff blowing in off the Tasman in the E-SE'er.

* I too am also enjoying ASF's reports. I was going to suggest a trip to Jenolan (as Steve just suggested) with a side trip to Oberon (preferably done in winter) if he was ever visiting here then. It would however require the use of a hire car.

** Kizz - yeh, I get like that sometimes throughout summer. I hold off watering if there is rain in the forecast, but in reality, vegies need water every day, whether from the hose or from the sky. Sometimes in the past I have been guilty of neglect by placing too much hope in the BOM.

Never been to Narrow Neck but have heard it's really nice.

Yes I liked reading your report ASF, it's a shame that you haven't been to the BM's on a nice day.

I went there a few weeks ago on a partly cloudy 13 degree day. It was beautiful.



Haha Homer I guess it would be inferred that I was rubbing it in...

But overall it was a pleasant day.

A few Showers here tracking in from the SE, better than nothing I guess.

Lol. Yeh, was joking haha but geez mate!!
I just went out and watered the vegies again, and guess what....... there was a bit of drizzle!!!
Funny thing is about the Blue Mountains......unless it is completely fogged in, it always looks spectacular in all types of weather.

**Edit.......Getting quite a heavy shower here now.

Thick drizzle in Chatswood. Roads and paths are wet, umbrellas out.

We just got another shower here about 15 mins ago, for about 30 seconds!! Quite interesting clouds down here actually, plenty of blue sky but some big cumulus clouds scattered around giving some localised showers.

Was the same here mate all afternoon, but now the sky has got that fully overcast/drizzly look.

Evening gang! My report for today from here in Parramatta.

Little to report, but unlike yesterday the weather in Sydney today was absolutely beautiful! Except for a couple of nice showers that blew in from the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean at about 7pm, it was a gloriously fine, mild to warm and mostly sunny day! A bit humid, but the easterly/southeasterly winds were very refreshing.

There was also a bit of leftover high cloud from the trough which has now weakened over NSW/ACT.

Perfect for spending the day here in Parramatta and later up in Baulkham Hills and Bella Vista.

Temperatures ranged between about 17°C and 23°C in the City, and between about 16°C and 24°C here in Parramatta. This evening's showers dumped about 5mm of rain out at Terry Hills btw.

Currently around 19°C in the City and at Sydney's Olympic Park.

Thanks Steve, Homer and WR! Yes I want to spend more time in the Blue Mountains, the area reminds me a bit of the Dandenong Ranges area in Melbourne where I come from. I'd love to visit in all four seasons and in a variety of weather conditions (including sunshine, snow, and thunderstorms). Narrow Neck, Jenolan Caves and Oberon have now been added to the list btw!

PS great shot of the Three Sisters and Jamieson Valley in sunshine WR.

I actually spent some time myself today in Parra checking out the rebuild of the new Parramatta stadium, and then walking to Westfield for lunch.
It was a lovely afternoon.

Well it was indeed wonderful to have decent and real rain. Something I've not seen for a long time.

We were stuck under that persistent cloud band travelling down the GDR all Saturday - and it was very good.

Certainly a good 40mm or more in the event. Much of it slow and soaking although there were heavier bursts as well.

Can't see a lot about in the near future but it's still a bit humid even today out here.

Homer - shame you largely missed out. Another drink would have helped Sydney for sure. Coastal suburbs seemed to get a bit yesterday.

All-in-all large part of NSW did very well except Metro and far north coast.

Checking it more carefully, the airport had about 55mm for the whole event from Thursday morning.

Really nice, everything had begun drying out badly again - this will help it keep going a few more weeks.

River even had a little brown fresh in it.

North West Slopes & Plains had some ok numbers too - 20 odd mm around Tamworth but 60 odd mm for Gunnedah, NT's some readings around 20mm too.

Even Walgett about 20mm.

Friday I chased all around the place. Most of the day was spent out west of Goulburn in the Gunning area. Small storms were popping on wind convergence in the Crookwell area and drifting south. I did get some small hail and torrential rain, but overall it was a non-photogenic mess of short lived cells.

I was at the same watching on tracker that storm parked off Kiama for several hours. When it started to show signs of backbuilding I bailed on the southern highlands and headed to the coast.

I got to Kiama to torrential rain. As the rain eased there was barrage of 10-15 mins of numerous CG's all within 1km of Kiama Downs area. I even saw one smooth channel near Bombo. I believe the area lost power for 3 hours.

Around the Shell Cover area I recorded a power flash and the street lights went out.

Lawns will take off like anything now.

Yes my lawn was going brown again.

All of a sudden I will be mowing.

Much of Sydney has had more rain from showers that have blown in as the wind has shifted to the SE than it did for the 'main event'. OH received 4.4mm since 6:00PM last night. I woke to a brigt sunshine early, but it soon closed in to a dreary, drizzly morning. It cleared in the early afternoon, it's now fine, coolish and partly cloudy.

EDIT: re erlier discussions of the Blue Mountains, here is a picture I took from Narrow Neck several years ago, looking SE. It features Mount Solitary and, in the distance, glimpses of Lake Burragorang:

Mount Solitary by Steve, on Flickr

Nice colours Steve

Might have been after precip too - leaves not dull n dusty

Here is my report for that event for my place, and it is a very small report indeed. And here it is:

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