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#1440190 - 03/11/2017 13:38 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 578
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Oh a bit of rain up north:



Not sure if that would be totally welcome with the cereal croppers et. al. this time of the year..

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#1440272 - 04/11/2017 21:30 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Let's hope any systems later on this month bring reasonable precipitation to inland and maybe even SE SA smile .

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#1440357 - 05/11/2017 17:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Surface trough west of Adelaide as of 11 am AEDT on synoptic.

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#1440381 - 05/11/2017 21:05 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 578
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Well - looks like it is raining somewhere ;-)



A little bit of light precipitation here in the (last couple of days) bloody strong winds.

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#1440616 - 06/11/2017 22:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Yes it did rain recently...it didn't rain with interest, but it was interesting rain.......hence my post.

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#1440856 - 09/11/2017 04:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14865
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Interesting pattern coming up now...large blocking high finally removing the QLD trough and replacing it with a big ridge up the coast. A weak surface trough will jut into the high through the Central areas on friday with an influx of moisture (albeit mostly above 10,000ft) from the NNE. There probably will be enough heating and convection for afternoon showers, chiefly Mid North/ranges perhaps and N plains, possibly a weak thunderstorm but tops will be fairly low due to lack of CAPE and pretty thin moisture.

Saturday this trough retrogrades west into the Western Ag/NW Pastorals and taps into a broader pool of tropical air feeding in and should result in some much more significant afternoon and evening thunderstorms out there...places like Tarcoola/west of Woomera/Coober Pedy etc. Then the surface trough slowly broadens and deepens whilst the inland of the continent heats up and fills with moisture with a lot of thunderstorm activity each afternoon and evening running right down from the Top End into WA/SA....desert areas look to be in for a fair treat. Activity shifts east as trough moves back later next week and then GFS tries to stall it across eastern SA with 2-3 days worth of afternoon/evening thermodynamic showers and thunderstorms. Classic summer sort of pattern where the SAM goes positive and the synoptics are slow moving/barotropic in nature. Bight ridge will always try and strengthen though and hold activity inland, so see how it all goes. At least something to watch.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (09/11/2017 04:13)

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#1440904 - 09/11/2017 22:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2123
Loc: Clare, SA
Hopefully this moisture manages to convert to at least one day of severe storms rather than just days of low topped virga showers with the odd rumble lol. Certainly nice to see patterns slowing down finally but given how benign this year has been we'll probably get to watch the ridge force it all east rapidly as the system moves in. One might notice I'm feeling very pessimistic this season poke

Reality is though *should* see at least one day with storms in central areas, however it isn't a particularly exciting set up as it currently stands frown Will change dramatically before next week though I'm sure, hopefully not for the worst.
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#1440950 - 10/11/2017 21:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I think there is a change on the way, and that it'll be here in the next 5-7 days.

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#1440994 - 11/11/2017 17:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 578
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Cycling home just now a very few spots of rain I could feel...

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#1440999 - 11/11/2017 18:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
yep, got a few spots here too

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#1441031 - 12/11/2017 18:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Surface low of 1011 hPa near Ceduna at 5 pm AEDT. Surface troughs extending North and Southeast of the low.

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#1441060 - 13/11/2017 11:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6433
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
25.9 this morning as the min at Adelaide.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1441095 - 13/11/2017 17:44 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 535
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Reckon that was a spot of rain on my head. Certainly looks like it could have been

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#1441105 - 13/11/2017 19:27 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Might get a rumble in the city tomorrow evening but the more likely scenario is plenty of storms out west turning to a rain band over central areas....

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#1441114 - 13/11/2017 21:33 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: teckert
a rain band over central areas....

Great!...Been some time since last one.

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#1441115 - 13/11/2017 22:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Be nice to see some decent falls but think 10mm at best.
Chance a storm on the back end in early hours wednesday which might up the totals if you get under one...

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#1441119 - 14/11/2017 00:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
ADFA saying 8-25mm forthe hills!

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#1441388 - 16/11/2017 23:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17520
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
the rainfall over the east of the state over the last 2 days might pale in comparison to what some parts of the state might see over the next 2 weeks.... shocked

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#1441421 - 17/11/2017 11:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 578
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Raining nicely but almost nothing on the radar ...
Nice swirl of cloud though:



Edited by betsuin (17/11/2017 11:31)

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#1441429 - 17/11/2017 11:45 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 76
Loc: Hazelwood Park
Consistent light rain here in Hazelwood Park. I really do have to get a gauge set up, but appears to be around the 5mm mark since it started this morning. Some nice big drops but its showing up as very light on the radar. Nice for the garden all the same.

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