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#1455795 - 05/03/2018 16:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1232
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
11 Days out on latest GFS. I'll start paying attention when its 5 days out. No doubt news papers and our southern FB friends will dish-out clickbait online in the meantime!
_________________________
Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1455799 - 05/03/2018 16:28 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: ol mate]
gympieweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/09/2002
Posts: 144
Loc: Veteran Weather Station, Queen...
Originally Posted By: ol mate
11 Days out on latest GFS. I'll start paying attention when its 5 days out. No doubt news papers and our southern FB friends will dish-out clickbait online in the meantime!


Can't believe some of the stuff that the media grab on to, especially today's news story in the Cairns Post and others...

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#1455811 - 05/03/2018 17:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Mega
I didn't really make it clear in my above post - but the numbers represent the pressure that particular ensemble is is showing at that time. So in that chart, two ensembles show a 974hpa TC off Gladstone, (74), two 971's off Cairns, (71), O3s and 04s (1003hpa, 1004hpa) across the top end etc. If there were a heap of, say 971's (71s) clustered together then that'd mean good agreement between ensembles that a strong TC is in that area in that point in time.

I really like to look at ensemble spread like this and not just single model runs because it gives a better idea of the potential factors that could come into play at that particular time, but that's just me.



You my friend (Mega), have articulated that very very well indeed. Thanks for the followup info hey.

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#1455813 - 05/03/2018 17:59 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Originally Posted By: MangroveJack70
Hmmm. Quite interesting when you look for specific numbers as you suggest. So if I understand it correctly, if we have multiples of the same number in close proximity, it's suggestive of higher confidence in the Ensemble and the forecast position at that particular point in time.

Another useful way of visualising confidence in an ensemble or lack thereof is to look at probability maps.

The probabilities simply represent the percentage of that ensemble's forecast members meeting a given threshold. In the examples below, it shows the percentage of the EC ensemble's members forecasting a TC (using a system created by the ECMWF to try and identify warm cored tropical systems meeting TC-like criteria) for the 48hrs up to next Saturday night, and for the 48hrs up to the forecast day that Mega's chart was for (albeit using a different ensemble).

The higher the percentages, the higher the confidence in that particular ensemble.
Note that it's normal for the probabilities to appear modest at long ranges but that's only because of the naturally higher uncertainty that's common at those longer ranges:









Thanks for that info Ken. Stats are my thing so that makes a lot of sense to me. smile

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#1455815 - 05/03/2018 18:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: KevD]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 229
Originally Posted By: KevD
In terms of confidence of something coming together, GFS has been impressively consistent across the last four runs (clickable for the full image):









Obviously a long way out and small differences in initial position can have a magnifying impact on final location down the track, so picking landfall if anything does come together is way too far out (for example the latest 18z run shows an upper trough approaching from the west...the run does not go as far out yet as to show what that means, but my guess would be increased likelihood of missing the east coast altogether), but certainly a decent and consistent signal at this stage from GFS. Now going to wait and watch it disappear on the 00z run crazy



smile

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#1455817 - 05/03/2018 18:05 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: MangroveJack70]
Hailin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 1018
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 5 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 8 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low over western Queensland is forecast to move north or northwest during the coming days and may move into or near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria from Tuesday or Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low.
Wednesday: Very Low.
Thursday: Low.

In the longer term, the monsoon trough is becoming more active in the Gulf of Carpentaria and a tropical low may lie within the trough.

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#1455826 - 05/03/2018 18:45 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Rossby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2018
Posts: 71







00z's

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#1455840 - 05/03/2018 20:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: scott12]
scott12 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 1231
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: scott12
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I like to interpret it as a "some kind of tropical disturbance signal that could either eventuate in the Gulf or Coral Sea". Given the proximity of the Gulf to the northwest Coral Sea, it only takes a slight change in the setup for a potential system to form in the Gulf instead of the western Coral Sea, or vice versa, or even both.
It's the nature of the beast in the tropics.



Thanks Ken for the explanation..

In regard to your above quote..is the difficulty in predicting where or if a system spins up along the northern flank of the country ,because ,if all the elements are present for cyclogenisis (is this what you called your "tropical disturbance signal"..?..)then its possible for a cyclone or cyclones to literally form anywhere along that low pressure trough line or monsoon trough where those conditions or "signal" exist...or is that too simplistic..?..


Thanks again Ken..I much appreciate you putting weather stuff into pretty simple terms that even an amateur like myself can understand...

I'm still a bit dubious with the models though..I don't know how it can be justified to release models 7-10 days and more into the future when as you showed the probabilities can be quite low.....particularly at this time of year in the tropics when things can change quite significantly between one run and the next..I also wonder about the wisdom of media outlets and facebook weather guys cherrypicking future synoptic images without mentioning those percentages ..it just all seems so wrong..!

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#1455842 - 05/03/2018 20:53 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
No probs. It goes back to the whole "not all setups are as equally unpredictable as each other" principle.

Some setups have significantly higher than normal probabilities at longer ranges so when that happens, it's hard to ignore and it does provide a useful heads-up to warrant further monitoring. But others have borderline probabilities due to less favourable ingredients so it's close to speculation territory.

As for the media, well you only need to look at this morning's hyped headlines in many of the regional online newspaper facebook pages and you'll be able to guess what my opinion is of the whole clickbait factor on many media fb pages these days.

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#1455845 - 05/03/2018 21:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish
Um...Yeah....... crazy

Quote:
'It's looking scary': Massive CYCLONE to hit Queensland after severe weather event dumped a month's worth of rain in two days


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1455860 - 06/03/2018 01:54 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25465
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
utter rubbish isnt it? News Ltd papers were running this rubbish all day too.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
June 2019 total - 27.8mm (21.2mm)
July 2019 total - 0.0mm (14.9mm)
2019 Yearly total to date - 2049.9mm (1129mm)

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#1455886 - 06/03/2018 09:02 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Can anyone help explain why WATL has the rainfall up around Cape York stopping right on the coast. The Cape looks like a wedge placed between heavy rain on both sides. Any explanation appreciated

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#1455889 - 06/03/2018 09:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 943
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Everton ...
Note how the papers don't go crazy reporting on his as yet unrecognised prediction of a January cyclone hitting Brisbane.
_________________________
Sick of waiting for rain in Townsville: moved to Brisbane. And then it rains in Townsville. Oh the sweet irony.



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#1455892 - 06/03/2018 09:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Can anyone help explain why WATL has the rainfall up around Cape York stopping right on the coast. The Cape looks like a wedge placed between heavy rain on both sides. Any explanation appreciated

I suspect one of the reasons is that ACCESS-R (which is one of the 8 models in the ensemble used by WATL) has a long well-known tendency for excessively cutting back precip over land during the overnight hours while maintaining it over water (this almost always results in an unrealistically sharp cutoff of precip that exactly matches the shape of the coastline).
Although convective precip does typically ease over land during the overnight hours, ACCESS-R takes it too far.
But this is exacerbated even more in WATL from the fact that nocturnal convection and precip is common over water in the tropics during the wet season.

On another note, here's the latest suggestion from the EC ensemble re its range of scenarios for tropical storm tracks colour-coded by intensity for the period within the next 10 days.

Anything from light blue and above = Cat 1 or greater intensity (green is weaker than Cat 1).
The round markers are forecast time intervals.




Edited by Ken Kato (06/03/2018 09:23)

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#1455898 - 06/03/2018 09:58 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Something seems to be a miss on recent runs - ACCESS-G has gone cold, EC operational barely has anything and GFS has a pathetic midget. Only early days I suppose but when EC op isn't excited then neither am I...

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#1455899 - 06/03/2018 10:03 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 6090
The Gulf is always a tricky place - surrounding on 3 sides by land so even a small shift of a system or forecast error can make the difference between a major TC and just a weak low.

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#1455901 - 06/03/2018 10:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: @_Yasified_shak
Um...Yeah....... crazy

Quote:
'It's looking scary': Massive CYCLONE to hit Queensland after severe weather event dumped a month's worth of rain in two days


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ebook_Australia



That David Taylor used to criticize higgins for making claims like this...now je is doing it.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455902 - 06/03/2018 10:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4219
Loc: El Arish

I went for a walk last night as i left my phone down near the creek, i noticed a trail of big black ants carrying eggs. The last time i saw these ants move was to higher ground (only a few meters away and they have done it twice that i have noticed) just before the area flooded.Tonight they were moving a good 80-100 mtrs away up the hill to an area that doesn't flood at all. Maybe they expect a big flood is coming?
They are a black ant with orange legs that seem to have their abdomen pointed upwards.
_________________________
Why is it in the era of "Time saving" devices, that people are more "Time poor" than ever?

Humans think they are the fabric of society,when they are merely part of the thread.


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#1455909 - 06/03/2018 11:35 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
I really dunno if ants moving is reliable anymore. Ive seen them moving high when no rain happens and moving eggs after rain.
_________________________
Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1455926 - 06/03/2018 14:17 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 389
Loc: Golden Beach
Thanks for explanation re Cape York/WATL Ken. It is very strange and even occurs during a solid NW feed.Forecasts up that way also seem particularly conservative and are often exceeded. It is hard to find a forum to discuss the weather up that way as anything north of Mareeba rarely gets a mention on WZ. Cheers

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