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#1448862 - 15/01/2018 14:31 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Anything in the CS will go SE and anything in the Gulf will go west.

Will have to wait till Febuary now for a chance of rain.


The absolute best case scenario for you guys would be for the Coral Sea to stay quiet (as the projected steering patterns simply aren't favorable for a westward moving TC yet), and for a low to spin up in the GoC instead. Extended model runs are trying to break the upper level ridge over Australia down which would mean (if it happened) anything in the gulf would more likely be slow moving, and any hint of trough development over the interior would even promote a E or SE movement. Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.

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#1448869 - 15/01/2018 15:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7918
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
anything in the Gulf will go west.


I hope your right Trav. Looking forward to another one.
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#1448878 - 15/01/2018 16:39 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Models are throwing a low back at the coast. Must be a real confusing prediction happen. The track is seriously all over the joint.
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448879 - 15/01/2018 16:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1879
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Cat4/5 into rocky... hah

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#1448881 - 15/01/2018 16:46 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
It's going be at least another 10 days before we get any accurate sort of idea where this system will go (if and when it does actually form).

Cyclogenesis is at about 10 days and how far East or West it forms will have a massive bearing on where it goes. You could put up a map of QLD and the Coral Sea and where a blindfold and have as much chance as extended GFS of picking out where it will end up.

Naming is interesting. If extended GFS is accurate Kelvin will form off Western Australia, Linda will be a short-lived cyclone in the GOC leaving us with Marcus for the system forming in the Coral Sea. Perhaps......
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448890 - 15/01/2018 18:07 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
.


Edited by Raindammit (16/01/2018 08:24)
Edit Reason: inappropriate language
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448911 - 15/01/2018 21:16 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
The wheels starting to turn. Been absolutely nothing at all to mention before now. So i decided to jump on here to see what my more learned westher watchers thought for the first time this season. So happy new year guys hope you have a grouse and safe one. However i do hope we cam get some action this year been a long time coming!!!

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#1448915 - 15/01/2018 21:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448930 - 16/01/2018 04:34 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mega]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7899
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Stuff the Coral Sea for now, conditions out there currently strongly favor graveyard TCs (off to NZ) which take the monsoon away with it.


I retract this statement...It would be really silly of me to completely write off the Coral Sea. I do it every year and more often than not end up with egg on my face - not falling for it again. Anyway, GFS has favorable steering conditions for westward moving TCs but only for a few days towards the end of the run before troughing returns over the Tasman Sea. However, as usual, take it with a grain of salt that far out.

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#1448946 - 16/01/2018 08:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 966
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Locke
And the 06Z has it scooting away to NZ. I would say a slight majority of runs over the past 2 days have favored a SE track towards NZ but wide spread at moment.


And now 12Z GFS back again to Qld coast crossing, early days yet though but will be interesting to watch.
Forecast MJO update for GFS (NCPE) going for strength in movement towards phase 5/6
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
But EC not interested and tending towards weakening. It will be interesting to see how models converge in the week or two ahead.
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#1448963 - 16/01/2018 11:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
mysteriousbrad Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/10/2007
Posts: 1879
Loc: Rockhampton QLD
Well the bread and milk will be gone in the next hour in rocky... https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/weather-groups-forecast-tropical-cyclone/3311346/

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#1448964 - 16/01/2018 11:20 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
And 18z now has it barrelling towards SEQ from out east and then stalling just as it gets close enough to be interesting. And probably then shooting towards graveyard but thats beyond the forecast.

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#1448965 - 16/01/2018 11:41 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4553
Loc: Brisbane
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1448967 - 16/01/2018 11:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Locke]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5236
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Locke
I wouldn't mind seeing the upper level forecasts for the 240-384 hr timeframe for GFS to try and get a grasp on whats causing the spread on guidance.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis...18011518&fh=240 smile

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#1448973 - 16/01/2018 12:26 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3817
Loc: Buderim
I'm guessing that broader tropical patterns and MJO progress make cyclone development in coral sea highly likely in 10 days. However movement will depend on where the cyclone forms in relation to any subtropical/upper level ridges or troughs, and this far out it is impossible to accurately predict where these will be.

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#1448983 - 16/01/2018 13:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
gazza townsville Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2012
Posts: 438
I absolutely find it amazing how i know we dont see rain all that often but how many times we see rain to the south like thismorning shifting to the north yet my washing stays dry..... townsville #bubble/dome

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#1448986 - 16/01/2018 14:12 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1373
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yes gazza used to drive me nuts
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1448987 - 16/01/2018 14:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....
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Nikko

Somewhere over the rainbow

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#1448989 - 16/01/2018 14:55 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13367
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Gotta love that article.."townsville residents urged to prepare" for what...why townsville...that low has jumped all over the joint...i will say one thing the beginnings of it forming have stayed on the 23rd jan. Theres about 3000km approx of coast that is in the cyclone risk zone, the chance of it hitting any giving place is negotiable at best, yes mackay north has a higher chance then most areas but still...the article shpuld urge people to prepare for the whole season as anywhere in that risk zone could cop it....


I'd argue there's nothing wrong with telling people to prepare - the more preparation the better. The 'Townsville' reference simply stems from the fact that the article originally appeared in the Townsville Bulletin.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1448991 - 16/01/2018 15:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5373
Loc: Diamond Valley
This is from the latest Weekly Tropical Note:

Quote:
The MJO in this region would typically assist in invigorating a pre-existing monsoon trough over northwest Australia, however, the broadscale weather pattern in the region is currently not favourable for this to occur. This is primarily due to an out-of-season tropical low which is currently located off the north coast of Borneo. This low is drawing in the energy associated with a surge of winds from the South China Sea which might otherwise cross the equator and energise the monsoon trough in the Australian region.


And here's the culprit that's playing party pooper in inhibiting the monsoonal flow.




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