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#1436515 - 10/10/2017 09:30 QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 4068
Loc: El Arish
Hot off the press.....

Outlook by region
The outlook indicates that a typical number of tropical cyclones is most likely in the Australian region and all sub-regions for 201718.
The Australian region has a 56% chance of having more tropical cyclones than average, meaning a 44% chance of having fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, around four tropical cyclones cross the Australian coast in a season. Outlook accuracy for the Australian region is high.
The Western region is likely to experience an average number of tropical cyclones this season, with the likelihood of more than average at 52%. The chance of fewer than average is 48%. Typically between about 15% and 40% of tropical cyclones in the Western region create coastal impacts. Outlook accuracy for the Western region is low.
The Northwestern sub-region has a 56% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 44% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. Typically, five cyclones form in or pass through this area each season. Around 40% of tropical cyclones, or their associated tropical lows, effect coastal areas of the Northwestern sub-region. Outlook accuracy for this region is moderate.
The Northern region outlook suggests an average number of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 47% chance of fewer tropical cyclones than average. In a typical year the Northern region experiences around three cyclones, and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions. About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions. Outlook accuracy for this region is very low.
The Eastern region outlook shows a near average season is most likely, with a 54% chance of more tropical cyclones than average and a 46% chance of fewer. About a quarter of tropical cyclones in the Eastern region make landfall. Outlook accuracy for this region is low.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
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#1436622 - 11/10/2017 07:43 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1428
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for sharing ys.

Does anyone know how the accuracy for the Australian region is high when the accuracy for the 4 regions has 1 moderate, 2 lows and 1 very low.
Does it mean, we usually get the total number of cyclones right but have no idea where they will be.
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#1438211 - 20/10/2017 14:44 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 180
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Ok, not sure if this fits the rules or is welcome here. I only post occasionally in SEQ thread, but I have followed this guy for a few years and he just posted this, hope all you cyclone freaks and others like it and find it interesting.
Enjoy or let me know to bugga off with this kind of weather. DD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fm6Y5mETVk4
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#1438260 - 20/10/2017 21:21 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 180
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Well, my previous post has been up for 6+ hrs and had nearly a hundred views without comment.
Anyone feel there's any merit in Ben's stats?
Have I put this in the wrong thread??


Edited by DDstorm (20/10/2017 21:34)
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#1440844 - 08/11/2017 22:37 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: DDstorm]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 354
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Need to see some agreement with meteorologists and peer reviewed papers before I put any faith in the theory.

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#1441100 - 13/11/2017 18:32 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Nerd65 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 410
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Peer review is one thing but to have your theory peer reviewed it has to be published in a suitable journal. Getting anything published in such a journal is almost impossible for the layman. In these days of the Internet a better course of action is to put all your data and methods up on a website for the review of anyone.

Looking at the video, it had the flavour of "cherry picking". Plenty of nice imagery and examples where high levels of geomagnetic activity corresponded with intense tropical cyclone activity but how often was this not the case?

Of course anyone can assess the correlation between geomagnetic and tropical cyclone activity because the data is publicly available but this bloke is going public and making the claim so the onus is on him.


Edited by Nerd65 (13/11/2017 18:33)
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#1441146 - 14/11/2017 15:04 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 354
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
The paper linked "Evolution of extratropical cyclones during disturbed geomagnetic conditions" is affiliated with the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. I would assume that is peer reviewed but it refers to extra-tropical cyclones but most of the systems the video refers to are not extra-tropical systems. The video even refers to a developing cyclone which blacked out South Australia but the the damage was done from at least two tornado's which were formed from a front and an intense low- pressure system.


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 15:10)

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#1441147 - 14/11/2017 16:09 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1269
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
FWIW an intense low-pressure is still a Cyclone, all lows are smile

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#1441172 - 14/11/2017 19:56 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 354
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Yes the low was technically an extra-tropical cyclone but it was the tornados that done the damage to the infrastructure in South Australia.
"On Wednesday September 28, two tornadoes with wind speeds between 190 and 260 kilometres per hour tore through a single-circuit 275-kilovolts transmission line and a double-circuit 275kV transmission line, about 170km apart.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-28/wind-farm-settings-to-blame-for-sa-blackout-aemo-says/8389920
And this topic should not be in the Tropical Cyclone thread.


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 20:16)

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#1441174 - 14/11/2017 20:15 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 180
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Your right, sorry. Feel free moderators to relocate this to it's rightful forum area. Maybe this is more of a climate driver potential.
Definitely feel a little out of my league but appreciate the comments thus far.
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#1441175 - 14/11/2017 20:19 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 354
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Mabee the world forum is better as the video is about would weather events. And I don't disbelieve it but the paper linked to the video is about extra-tropical systems which are usually cold cored with a front and the video references mostly tropical systems which are warm cored


Edited by Red Watch (14/11/2017 20:31)

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#1441282 - 16/11/2017 01:00 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24825
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.
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October 2017 total - 101.4mm (26mm)
November 2017 total - 0.0mm (54mm)
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#1441284 - 16/11/2017 07:40 Re: QLD Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17918
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mick10
ext gfs going for first tc of the season in 12 days time. highly unlikely so far out. but moves it SE away anyway.


It's been running that for 3 days now.
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