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#1441165 - 14/11/2017 18:01 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1015
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Same over here petros!

Some nice development to our north
Out around Baw Baw and looked like
For a while that it was edging further and
Further south towards here but the sea
Breeze came in and mucked it all up!! 😨

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#1441173 - 14/11/2017 20:14 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep Dooga, that development I noted before then turned to impressive mamatus for 10 mins or so, then all fizzled.

Had the (very) oldies around for a bbq tea, was nice an mild evening, with only the remnants of the fresh seabreeze remaining to make it pleasant outside.

Paddocks turned to stressed/dry out this way after the rain 2 weeks back, probably the peak of the hay harvest happening here last few days, all will be relieved no rain tonight, but all also prepared (hoping) for rain tomorrow/Thursday in these parts imo. Lake Glenmaggie peaked at circa 95% which is low considering the great snow season, now at 92% and falling like a stone.

Rain progs for Gippsland on the arvo runs have backed off, but still allow 1/2" or so, ...and (more importantly) the chance of storms tomorrow arvo and Thursday. Some areas may get lucky.

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#1441177 - 14/11/2017 20:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For the second consecutive evening, we again have the first cicada's of summer squealing.

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#1441178 - 14/11/2017 20:50 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6134
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Models still struggling with where to place the low that they all say will form in the trough tomorrow night into Thursday. Interesting that they differ so much so close to the event. They all agree that south and SW of that low will get a serious hosing. On EC that's kind of the SW coast, GFS my house westward and shorter range ACC a bit closer to GFS but perhaps tending eastward with the rain max.

Anyway, with no satellite clue yet we shall wait and see, fingers crossed for GFS scenario for me.

28.4c for a high today
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1441185 - 14/11/2017 23:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report from here in Belgrave since the start of this event.

Wednesday November 8th 2017
Low: 8.6C High: 22.8C Rain: 0mm


Thursday November 9th 2017
Low: 7.5C High: 26.9C Rain: 0mm


Friday November 10th 2017
Low: 9.0C High: 28.5C Rain: 0mm


Saturday November 11th 2017
Low: 13.7C High: 31.7C Rain: 0mm


Sunday November 12th 2017
Low: 11.4C High: 31.2C Rain: Trace


Monday November 13th 2017
Low: 11.9C High: 35.9C Rain: 0mm


Tuesday November 14th 2017
Low: 19.1C High: 37.9C Rain: 0mm


A very welcome change from the ridiculously wintry start to November 2017! Up until November 10th the nights were quite cold, but the afternoons were gloriously fine, mild to warm and mostly sunny with cooling breezes. smile

From November 11th, the pattern became more akin to summer. The nights were generally comfortable (we had chilly fog/mist/low cloud with light spitting rain early on Sunday morning while on my way down to Dandenong), followed by hot, humid, mostly sunny afternoons, again with refreshing breezes at times. Boy the Sun felt intense after the recent cold weather!! eek crazy

Thanks to the heat and humidity, along with instability and the presence of the troughs affecting Victoria, it was nice to see some shower and thunderstorm action once again, even if it was way off in the distance! I was only just barely able to see the storms over towards the Macedon Ranges on Saturday while down in Ferntree Gully, but I had a much better view of them yesterday while in Narre Warren (particularly towards the Geelong/Ballarat direction to the west/southwest, towards Baw Baw to the east/northeast, and towards the Kinglake/Murrindindi/Yea/Alexandra region to the north).

And the action was for much more widespread and more visually spectacular today - a few brief cells could be seen flaring around Geelong while I was down in Berwick. But my main focus was to the east/northeast towards the Baw Baw direction, where numerous sluggish but potentially severe thunderstorm cells were repeatedly bubbling and collapsing, with locally heavy falls on the Melbourne radar; the most powerful storms formed some HUGE overshoots above their cumulonimbus anvils btw! smile

Around dinnertime a couple of storms developed over towards the Gembrook/Bunyip State Forest and Little Yarra regions to the east/northeast. Both storms were impressive but only lasted an hour or so. A string of storms also popped up to our south at the same time (from Cranbourne down towards Phillip Island) but dissipated at sunset.

Lots of convective, dark-based towers flaring about closer to my neck of the woods today, but apart from the storms that formed from Cranbourne southwards at dinnertime we didn't get even a shower or muttering of thunder. frown

The ground is a bit crunchy in spots, so I'm hoping we can score anywhere between 15-50mm (or more) of rain over the next 24-48 hours, plus some seriously severe thunderstorm action to go with it. My average November rainfall is 63.2mm and so far for November 2017 we've only had 13.7mm, so still a long way to go to reach our quota hmmm... poke

It's a mostly clear, breezy, balmy night atm, currently around 24C. My hottest November night to date is November 21st 2016 with a low of 23.4C. Will tonight match or beat that record? smile

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#1441190 - 15/11/2017 02:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The GFS and satellite still hard pin upper low going to sit and Can see strong southerly on left and right is Northerly as clouds band looks tight narrow.

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#1441194 - 15/11/2017 08:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest runs show best storm potential over Vic's central and SE today.

IMO hot spots will be the city and "Loo country" (Pakenham).

IF the link below works, it indicates that for E of Melb, storms, if they get get going, may travel WNW.



So there will be one Royal Maffra golfer playing this afternoon with a serious eye turned towards Mt Baw Baw and Thompson Valley!

Good luck to all, ...we all need rain.


Edited by Petros (15/11/2017 08:22)

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#1441228 - 15/11/2017 13:38 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like major heavy thunderstorms entering West Victoria looks great.

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#1441229 - 15/11/2017 14:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 873
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Been flying this morning - very bumpy out there!
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1441241 - 15/11/2017 15:19 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2287
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom thinks upto 100mm rain likely for West to Northern Country tonight into few days.

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#1441243 - 15/11/2017 15:36 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5821
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 23.4C (tying with November 21st last year for my hottest November night on record). It reached a hot, humid top of 34.1C today, right now it's around 27C.

A blustery start to the day with gusty northerlies, and plenty of sunshine up until lunchtime, but it looked quite unstable. Cloud's been increasing all afternoon, and it's becoming convective; the air has a rather "heavy" feel to it now and it's growing kinda dark! Good to see storms are finally brewing around Melbourne! grin

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#1441245 - 15/11/2017 15:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
blu Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/09/2002
Posts: 700
Loc: Laverton
the southerly breeze may have killed any chances for the CBD

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#1441255 - 15/11/2017 17:26 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 728
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Heavy rain & Thunder here in Red Cliffs.

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#1441257 - 15/11/2017 17:40 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1112
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Forcefield activates and the storm evaporates. 4 good quality pieces of lightning before the HAARP was activated
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1441262 - 15/11/2017 18:43 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Blackacubra Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/04/2004
Posts: 728
Loc: Sunraysia, Victoria
Just had a lightning strike, hit very close to the Red Cliffs, township. The ground moved, I swear. Last time it was that close, Avocado trees burned, over the hill from me.

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#1441264 - 15/11/2017 20:05 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1015
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No rain today, a few very tiny showers around
But basically just virga!

Central and west vic looks really good
For substantial rain👍
It's coming straight down from the north
Which is not good for gippslanders due
To the Rangers to the north sheltering us.

Max of 33c here today

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#1441265 - 15/11/2017 20:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1112
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Why is the radar showing the lightning strikes in the Northwest, going down and to the left and over in the Northeast going down and to the right!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1441266 - 15/11/2017 20:28 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
35c here today.

No seabreeze. No storms.

Dead calm 31c outside now and the cicada's would drive anyone mad!


If a storm is to arrive in Gippy, it'll be during my beauty sleep (where Petros tries to make an inventory of where/how he lost all those golf balls while sweating it out this arvo!).

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#1441267 - 15/11/2017 20:31 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: The Fishman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6587
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
Why is the radar showing the lightning strikes in the Northwest, going down and to the left and over in the Northeast going down and to the right!


...the 700hPa wind direction? (Storms weak/low level8?).

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#1441281 - 16/11/2017 00:27 Re: VIC - Extended November Heatwave/Blocking High Nov-8 to Nov-17 [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 519
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Upper divergence at 500 or so massive lift over vic

INSANE rain in NW Vic right on harvest time bad time

Loads of 40-60mm falls such widespread heavy rain all moving into SW tonight and central early am and tomorrow.

Impressive little system
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Bring on the STORMS

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