#1440990 - 11/11/2017 17:12
Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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Ok, seems our benign, but pleasant, weather will come to an end later this week, with a decent upper cold pool screaming in from the SE and combining with a surface thermal trough. The cold pool gets to inland NSW and develops a low which deepens. The only model not really interested is GFS at this stage. Widespread showers, periods of rain and severe storms are likely - with plenty of moisture around. The trough helps by dragging in long-fetch easterlies resulting in a very unstable onshore flow, which will produce stream showers from the Illawarra north, primarily heavier about the north coast. Still too far out to be certain, but looks like a pretty unstable atmosphere is on the cards (TT's of 50 - 60 across a large swathe of NSW over next weekend)! Here's the model spread:       
Edited by Seabreeze (20/11/2017 22:35)
Edit Reason: shortened by a day
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#1441010 - 11/11/2017 21:13
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
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Looking forward to being in on the action in NSW/ACT at this time next week; I fly from Melbourne to Sydney on Friday for a few days, and I'll be based at Parramatta. Just hoping for at least some warm sunshine and blue skies, especially for any sightseeing I'll be doing (eg. the CBD, Sydney Harbour, the Blue Mountains, etc) and decent, photogenic, severe thunderstorm action instead of just overcast with heavy rain.  I'll be watching this thread and the models closely, and I'll be sure to contribute.
Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/11/2017 21:13)
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#1441024 - 12/11/2017 14:19
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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Models up and down for this event, unlike the previous trough & low. Not giving me much confidence.
Latest EC only likes 18mm over the next 10 days for much of coast. Usual hotspots NE NSW however do very well. We'll see what the PM runs say.
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#1441029 - 12/11/2017 18:04
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
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10 mm's. 50 mm's.
I'll take either atm tbh.
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#1441039 - 12/11/2017 20:54
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Steve777]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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The BOM has scaled back the rain. Now just 3-10mm for Sydney (mostly on the weekend), a bit more for Wollongong, a bit less for Newcastle. Bathurst does better with 7-19.
It's early days yet. GFS certainly looks more bullish. It's also hinting at a repeat performance later next week. GFS was the better permforming (gasp) model for the Tasman Low, so I’m keen to see what it does now that it’s sort of onboard.
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#1441073 - 13/11/2017 13:29
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1718
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
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I hope so GringosRain,our creeks need a good flush,and the cattle dams need filling.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.
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#1441111 - 13/11/2017 21:05
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3129
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
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The less rain the better, as this will mean better storms and less of a cloud fest.
The main issue with this event that is preventing it going widespread severe is that the Tasman Sea ridges reluctance to budge, in fact the ridge strengthens again Sunday / Monday.
This ridge is keeping the low rather vertically stacked = lighter mid to upper winds than we would otherwise expect. EC is tad more encouraging with mid level winds.
None the less early storms and those working into clear air (which will be an issue ) may be decent hailers.
Got Friday off so all batteries will go on charge in prep.
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#1441135 - 14/11/2017 11:18
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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Quick model update: EC back with decent falls for most of NSW except Metro & Hunter  ACCESS R  WxZone's own model pretty bullish for southern highlands  CMC similar to EC  GFS pulling it back inland:  ACCESS G not too bad for most areas 
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#1441138 - 14/11/2017 11:28
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
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Will be an interesting setup whatever does occur, I'm just going to wait until there's greater certainty in the models.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.
2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th
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#1441220 - 15/11/2017 12:55
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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Moisture looking great - DP's steady at 16; nice and warm. Trough sure is sucking in those easterlies.
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#1441224 - 15/11/2017 13:18
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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Stormy end to the week in eastern Australia Ben Domensino, Wednesday November 15, 2017 - 12:50 EDT A prolonged spell of stormy weather will affect Australia's eastern states during the second half of this week. A slow moving low pressure trough that has produced daily showers and storms in western and central Australia during the past week will start to move across eastern Australia from today. The eastward-moving trough will interact with a feed of tropical moisture and an upper level low pressure system to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms in parts of Queensland, NSW, the ACT, Victoria and SA between now and Sunday. On Wednesday, most of the showers and storms will occur near the trough in western parts of Queensland, NSW and Victoria and eastern districts of SA. The heaviest falls are likely to occur near the upper low in western Victoria during the afternoon and overnight. The impending deluge has prompted a severe weather warning for flash flooding in Victoria's Mallee, Wimmera and South West Districts. During Thursday and Friday, the near-stationary upper low will continue to produce rain in western Victoria as the slow-moving trough causes showers and storms to spread across NSW, the ACT and Queensland. There is potential for parts of western Victoria to amass more than 100mm of rain by Friday night, although most of this will fall by Thursday evening. On the weekend, the upper low will move towards the northeast, causing showers and thunderstorms to continue over a large swathe of NSW and Queensland, while conditions start to ease in Victoria. Rainfall totals from this system are difficult to predict for Australia's eastern states as they will be heavily dependent on the location and intensity of storms. Many areas in the eastern half of NSW and central/southern Queensland should pick up more than 30mm of rain by Sunday night and some areas could see 50-100mm during this time. Severe thunderstorms are likely to affect multiple states during the next five days, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest warnings here: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/warnings.jsp
Edited by Kino (15/11/2017 13:18)
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#1441302 - 16/11/2017 10:25
Re: Surface Trough/Upper Cold Pool/Low, Thurs 16/11 - 20/11/2017 - Severe storms, showers and rain
[Re: Kino]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2262
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
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Big slab of ACCA's around this morning - great sign! Action progged to start later tonight, wouldn't surprise me if we had an overnight storm tbh.
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