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#1441277 - 15/11/2017 22:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 362
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
I know what you mean Mega, beautiful weather lately.

I think there is something to like about all kinds of weather; nice neutral temperature days with fluffy clouds like today; hot cloudless days which make for perfect long weekends on the beach; overcast rainy days which make for perfect indoor reading/netflix on weekends.

My personal favourite are the windy days, something really refreshing about them, all the better when they bring onshore showers in their wake.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1441290 - 16/11/2017 09:07 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1514
Loc: Australia
Ken Brown from Brownies coastwatch was on the radio this morning. He keeps in touch with people from the BOM, and they stated they haven't seen a weather pattern like this in years as we normally get northerly winds this time of year. Any truth to that and if so what is causing these irregular pattern?

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#1441291 - 16/11/2017 09:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5240
I've talked to Ken Brown regularly on the phone during his phone calls to the Bureau and let's just say, he's an interesting character lol
While we sometimes get this kind of ridgey cool pattern even in November, it's been quite awhile since I've personally seen such a long persistent and set-in period of it.

Even Melbourne, Perth, etc are getting prolonged spells of instability recently (Hobart area also got storms yesterday) - example of Melbourne's forecast below (from yesterday):



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#1441295 - 16/11/2017 09:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1144
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
No thread yet for this weekend? The 10 day map looks pretty, be good if it continues on. It's really dried out this week.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-151, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1441296 - 16/11/2017 09:45 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3154
Loc: Buderim
Enhanced ridging along Qld and enhanced troughing near New Zealand/New Caledonia shows up even on a last 90 day average.


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#1441300 - 16/11/2017 10:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1797
Loc: Kingaroy
Must be a long wave trough stuck somewhere to cause it. I wonder if that warm pool of water that used to extend from PNG to NZ is back.

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#1441304 - 16/11/2017 10:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 746
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Makes ya wonder what our weather will be like in January and February

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#1441308 - 16/11/2017 11:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1797
Loc: Kingaroy
As long as it not like 2016.

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#1441316 - 16/11/2017 12:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1144
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
So what does the ridging mean to our weather?
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-151, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1441317 - 16/11/2017 13:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Lani]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7046
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Lani
So what does the ridging mean to our weather?


Ridging from the Tasman Sea usually means cooler and drier weather for us apart from the usual stream showers along the coast. However during spring & summer, this ridge, if set up right, helps feed moister air from the Coral Sea into inland troughs, like the one we're about to see out west in the coming week. So while it may not be great for us, at least it's helping other areas from W QLD through to VIC get a much needed drink.

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#1441364 - 16/11/2017 21:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Ridgy described here
http://www.climatekelpie.com.au/understand-climate/climatedogs
tells us of impact to the south
Mega's description of upcoming effect to the north is interesting
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Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1441367 - 16/11/2017 21:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1144
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Thank you smile
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-151, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1441387 - 16/11/2017 23:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Cheers Lani
I also think that weather for SEQ NNSW over the next week or two may show us some surprises either way for actual rain or forecasts
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1441389 - 16/11/2017 23:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Flowin]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2109
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Looking at the ext GFS it's just SE'lies with constant showers for the next 2 weeks. Bizarre to see that for such a long time in November, especially when we usually have a very active storm season in this month. I guess we might have had our entire season worth of epic storms in our hyperactive October.

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#1441395 - 16/11/2017 23:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1797
Loc: Kingaroy
The BOM's rainfall outlook doesn't look good.

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#1441397 - 17/11/2017 00:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Nature's Fury]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 480
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Looking at the ext GFS it's just SE'lies with constant showers for the next 2 weeks. Bizarre to see that for such a long time in November, especially when we usually have a very active storm season in this month. I guess we might have had our entire season worth of epic storms in our hyperactive October.


That's why I think for next week or two we may see wild forecasts or wild rain somewhere in south east or south west Qld. Recent weather and trends far from the typical Spring.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1441406 - 17/11/2017 07:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Yes, not typical for November at all. I suggested in August I think it was that we would have a suppressed storm season and this looks to be holding. But I did say we will get more rain events. This may still happen , but to me the constant south Easters this time of year are actually a reflection of la nina type weather. Others are right in saying it all just hasn't coupled yet. Don't know when this will happen so a real different year this year, so i'm looking at the saying for this summer " Weather is like a box of chocolates... ya never know what your gonna get" Said in the tone of tom hanks smile


Edited by paulcirrus (17/11/2017 07:49)
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1441408 - 17/11/2017 08:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1797
Loc: Kingaroy
Has anyone heard of a high pressure system moving west across the Tasman Sea before? I've noticed some of the forecasts are talking about a westward moving high pressure system in the Tasman Sea.


Edited by Chris Stumer (17/11/2017 08:40)

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#1441417 - 17/11/2017 10:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
The latest in a series of biblical runs from the models. When we're stuck in a block only a small move one way or another can make a big impact on who gets the big rains...so whilst nearly all the runs show the biggest falls through the inland, every so often one of the runs (from GFS and ECMWF) will show it coming down the coast. Latest one to do so if the 18Z GFS run...


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#1441423 - 17/11/2017 11:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4464
Loc: Brisbane
There's certainly been a sniff of something on the cards in model runs for several days now although the latest GFS is the first of the GFS runs to but biblical falls on the SE QLD coast.

From what I'm seeing from a quick glance at the synoptic charts its a high pressure system parked in the Tasman directing a strong NE feed from the Coral Sea, into a surface trough on the QLD coast that does the damage.

Very variable at the moment though and we might need to wait a week to get a clearer picture.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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