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#1441431 - 17/11/2017 11:53 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3124
Loc: Buderim
There is currently an upper level low over west Victoria which is forecast to move north and weaken, and give us some rain/showers over the weekend. GFS then has a weak poorly defined upper low/trough linger over NSW/Qld border until it is reinforced by two further upper level troughs moving through next week and this is what is forecast to give the heavy rain.

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#1441442 - 17/11/2017 12:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 119
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
Apart from this weekend, when is it possible that this forecast rain could arrive?

I know there are a lot of variables at play right now, and maybe we need to wait until next week's forecast models, but as a cricket nuffy I'm just wondering what impact it might have on the Ashes Test at the Gabba from Thursday November 23rd to Monday November 27th.

Are those dates within the possible date range for significant rainfall totals somewhere around SE QLD, or is it all likely to happen before or after the Test?
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Camp Hill, Brisbane
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#1441464 - 17/11/2017 14:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5216
The 1st graphic below might help - running totals/accumulated rainfall from a few of the models for Brisbane.

Also below is the probabilities of total rainfall exceeding 25mm in the 7-14 day forecast period from the GFS ensemble - still a wet signal there for lower eastern Australia:





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#1441465 - 17/11/2017 14:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 119
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
Thanks very much, Ken. Based on that it would suggest that there could be the odd shower around for all 5 days, with enhanced rainfall amounts across Saturday (Nov 25) and into Sunday (Nov 26).

I look forward to seeing what eventuates, and how accurate (or inaccurate) those forecast models turn out to be this far out.
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Camp Hill, Brisbane
View live weather station data: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IQUEENSL152

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#1441474 - 17/11/2017 15:38 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 145
Loc: Roma, Qld
Starting to fire up along the trough line out west with a STW for the extended Charleville area

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#1441479 - 17/11/2017 16:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
For the record this is the 00z run. The 18z carried a low down the coast, this one takes the low down the coast before it moves offshore and washes out.

All still in lala land, but good to see something to watch and with this pattern slow moving it could be all or nothing - we get stuck in a dry slot with rain inland, or it moves over the coast, sits on us and gives us a deluge:


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#1441489 - 17/11/2017 16:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4459
Loc: Brisbane
Gee that 00Z run is a stonker. Wonder if the falls will still be there tomorrow morning though.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1441500 - 17/11/2017 18:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1509
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
I've talked to Ken Brown regularly on the phone during his phone calls to the Bureau and let's just say, he's an interesting character lol
While we sometimes get this kind of ridgey cool pattern even in November, it's been quite awhile since I've personally seen such a long persistent and set-in period of it.



I love listening to him. He just said on the radio there's a lot of uncertainty about tomorrow and sunday? Nornally models are in agreeance 24 hours out, but he said its all over the shop on what's happening Saturday and sunday. I find this strange? Will the forecasted rain were supposed to be getting is from that thick cloud that's stretching between Warwick and west of the Gold Coast hinterland? . Or will it coming in off the ocean?

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#1441509 - 17/11/2017 18:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5216
Originally Posted By: gleno71
I love listening to him. He just said on the radio there's a lot of uncertainty about tomorrow and sunday? Nornally models are in agreeance 24 hours out, but he said its all over the shop on what's happening Saturday and sunday. I find this strange? Will the forecasted rain were supposed to be getting is from that thick cloud that's stretching between Warwick and west of the Gold Coast hinterland? . Or will it coming in off the ocean?

The current big band of inland activity probably won't reach the coast here.
Most of our rainfall (which probably won't be that much) will probably be in the form of showery weather or patchy rain coming in off the ocean, with some places having the chance of localised thunder (which would enhance rainfall in those spots).

The wet signal that's been appearing in the 7-14 day forecast timeframe still looks on track (now in about a week's time from now) - this two week graph for Archerfield shows the percentage of the forecast members that make up the GFS ensemble that are going for more than 10mm/day:



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#1441511 - 17/11/2017 19:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7019
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
EC/CMC not onboard

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#1441522 - 17/11/2017 19:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
EC seems to be going for a continuation of the blocking pattern when GFS has the wet signal.

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#1441531 - 17/11/2017 21:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Today's clouds in the morning did look like rain coming

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#1441534 - 17/11/2017 22:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Warm cloudy day here, looking for some wetness, still warm, humid & calm. Maybe this system comes a wee bit closer I hope.

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#1441544 - 18/11/2017 00:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 978
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes, the rain out west is obviously having a difficult time making it east. The ridge is firmly in place. We had 3.2mm the day before yesterday in an afternoon shower.
Mowed the grass today and experienced another dust cloud. So dry again out here.
Not set in stone, but Warwick is on track to have its driest November on record! This is the last thing we needed after 7 months of dry weather (April-October).
At least it has been nice and cool this month.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (18/11/2017 00:37)
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1441545 - 18/11/2017 00:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 457
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Yes, the rain out west is obviously having a difficult time making it east. The ridge is firmly in place. We had 3.2mm the day before yesterday in an afternoon shower.
Mowed the grass today and experienced another dust cloud. So dry again out here.
Not set in stone, but Warwick is on track to have its driest November on record! This is the last thing we needed after 7 months of dry weather (April-October).
At least it has been nice and cool this month.


It'll break the record for the newer Warwick site... but the old site driest November occurred in 1915 when 1.3mm was recorded...
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1441546 - 18/11/2017 01:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 978
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Thanks for the info Squeako. Where do you go to find records that go that far back?
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1441548 - 18/11/2017 06:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
ScubaSteve Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/10/2011
Posts: 26
Loc: Upper Ripley Valley
Lovely showers already at 5am. Some nice convergence, steady to heavy!

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#1441551 - 18/11/2017 07:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3124
Loc: Buderim
Showers just south and east of here have some reasonable structure - very dark base and some shelf and cauliflower that wouldn't look out of place on a half decent thunderstorm, although fairly low.

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#1441555 - 18/11/2017 08:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 457
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
Thanks for the info Squeako. Where do you go to find records that go that far back?


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
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Records are MEANT to be broken.

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#1441560 - 18/11/2017 09:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 244
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Quite overcast and dark here this morning with light to steady rain falling for the last half hour or so.
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