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#1441710 - 19/11/2017 19:03 VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Time for another thread I guess I'll get it underway

Another week of warm to hot weather with many centers including Melbourne and Mildura seeing temps around 30C for the whole week. Storms will continue across the ranges all week with the chances in the Melbourne and other areas increasing later in the week.

Really its just a repeat of the week just gone - lets hope for more ripping storms!
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#1441715 - 19/11/2017 19:19 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread logansi👍

Yep another warm week ahead, be interesting
To see what comes of it all? Hopefully some
Handy rainfall.

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#1441762 - 20/11/2017 13:16 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for Tread...

Looks like next system seem weak

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#1441791 - 20/11/2017 18:41 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for the thread logansi smile

Hear what your saying CA - but for me this period holds all previously stated above, but also with the blocking high in Tasman (a series off which I cant recall ever seeing at this time of the year) allows the development of a pre-summer (unusual) Easterly Dip scenario to deliver rain to SE AUS near and following logansi's thread date range??:


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#1441812 - 20/11/2017 22:54 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
These are the heatmaps from tonights access run ( I always find it best at reading temperature compared to GFS and co), quite amazing really, most models indicate that bar next Sunday & Monday (still low/mid 20 likely) most centres including Melbourne will see every day for the rest of November around 30C. With no cool air in sight Storms also looking widespread again next weekend. Jane Bun was talking tonight about a number of records that are likely to be broken, I predict many centers will see 20 days in a row of above-average temperatures (10th to 30th)




Also CFSV2, has strong heat signals for the next month!





Edited by logansi (20/11/2017 23:01)
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#1441849 - 21/11/2017 09:43 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
You really need to extend the dates out to December

Wednesday looks marginal for thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday slightly better upper level support (though not fantastic) out west. Moisture improves until Sunday - I'd reckon Saturday will have ample humidity for some solid thunderstorms.

The real pity is the lack of a deep upper level trough - we would be seeing some serious storms and hefty rain totals.

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#1441863 - 21/11/2017 12:46 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had checked GFS again and hope enough humid pump from NSW into East half Victoria as upper low or through sit over Victoria up to 5 days and West half Victoria more like dry SE/S wind.


Edited by chasers addict (21/11/2017 12:47)

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#1441891 - 21/11/2017 15:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I have a sixth sense for thunderstorms, I felt there was going to be some and looked at the radar and have noticed some around Marysville and surrounds heading NNW. There is some in Moe heading in a similar direction but the forcefield will dissolve them or deflect them northerly as they are heading towards the Metro area!
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1441905 - 21/11/2017 17:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hot again here today before strong seabreeze arrived. Plenty of convection on the ranges again, all drifted northward quadrant as predicted.

Agree with all thoughts about a stormy period looming, ....and so does GFS:


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#1441908 - 21/11/2017 18:11 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The Moe storm has disappeared off the radar and the storm around Marysville are losing their punch 🥊
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1441910 - 21/11/2017 18:28 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: The Fishman]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1235
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
The Moe storm has disappeared off the radar and the storm around Marysville are losing their punch 🥊


Fish - the storm popped up pretty much
In Traralgon and moved slightly west but
Only got as far as Morwell. Moe didn't
Get anything out of that one I don't think.
The most intense part of the storm looked
Around the Latrobe Valley airport which
Received 14mm. But very localised.

One single little cell popped up last night
Right over newborough and dropped 5mm
At my parents place. But nothing at all in
Moe or up here.

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#1441915 - 21/11/2017 19:54 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: The Fishman]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6880
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
The Moe storm has disappeared off the radar and the storm around Marysville are losing their punch 🥊


...I reckon the Moe one was brewed at Mt Tassie and drifted NNW'wards till it fizzled over Newborough.

[edit] - gives a bit of confidence that the same thing could happen tomoz/onwards? - for tomoz, probably brew over the city/MtDandenong and head to circa Seymour?


Edited by Petros (21/11/2017 19:59)

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#1441927 - 21/11/2017 21:57 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Amazing run of heat, humidity and storms very impressive and VERY RARE to last this long the block is record breaking and looks to last well into DEC.

When it finally breaks will probably be 15c and windy again lol.

Loving the daily storms on ranges lucky folk

Whats amazing after the coldest first 10 days in NOV on Record we now look to have a record to ear record warm month AMAZING
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#1441971 - 22/11/2017 11:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Now BOM announces short, weak La Nina probability for summer lacking rainfall but packing heatwaves...Any one want say something what Bommy think..

I had 2 days hot November 30s last 2016.

Now had 6 days over 30s and 3 more 30-s days to come to make 9 days.

Looks like La Nina as warmed Melbourne and Hobart.

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#1441977 - 22/11/2017 12:18 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Now BOM announces short, weak La Nina probability for summer lacking rainfall but packing heatwaves...Any one want say something what Bommy think..

I had 2 days hot November 30s last 2016.

Now had 6 days over 30s and 3 more 30-s days to come to make 9 days.

Looks like La Nina as warmed Melbourne and Hobart.


Yeah I m worried were are going to fall into this heatwave/blocking high pattern. Jane Bun was saying last night that Melbourne could have more 30+ days in a row, than the previous record for number of 30+ days!
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1442081 - 23/11/2017 13:15 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 746
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Fairly rapid build-up around midday with storms now firing up along southern edge of ranges north of Sale and eastwards. Steering seems to be taking them towards ENE - not a common direction - so will be interesting to see if any progress across the coastal country to their south.

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#1442097 - 23/11/2017 14:51 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2473
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice weak cells around out flow cool down 30c and the wind shear is Southey direction from Tasmanian to NSW should boost thunderstorms as middle level winds from NW to SE direction.



Edited by chasers addict (23/11/2017 14:51)

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#1442103 - 23/11/2017 15:54 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
As is always the case, anything that comes from the NW is evaporated and dissolved by the forcefield
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1442121 - 23/11/2017 17:15 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1026
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
i'll be honest i'm happy they evaporated today around the city as I was flying lol - they can go for it now!

Also just a little update, for those loving the heat, its sticking around models pointing to yet another hot stretch starting next Tuesday (after 2 cool days) and continuing into the first week of December! Madness!
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1442130 - 23/11/2017 18:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Weve had our one flash of lightning 👏🏻 Forcefield will activate now! 😂🤣
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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