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#1442351 - 26/11/2017 11:50 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park


CAPE forecast for 4pm.

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#1442352 - 26/11/2017 12:00 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
From the BoM "Thunderstorms are more likely to be severe near the trough or on and south of the divide today."

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#1442353 - 26/11/2017 12:15 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
standalone convection commencing in that clearing now. I'd estimate the temps to be around 27c out that way. I'm not sure what happened to the weather Balloons for Melbourne - funding cuts?

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#1442354 - 26/11/2017 12:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Ruckle, the storm dumped only 6mm so far and can see clouds in West is building up

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#1442356 - 26/11/2017 12:58 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Pouring rain for the moment, pretty close thunder as well. Fun day

Edit: despite no sounding and ordinary radar


Edited by Ruckle (26/11/2017 12:59)
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#1442357 - 26/11/2017 13:04 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
We have a sounding.....

lower level cap 29C (or a little lower if closer to the trough) is the key number...
LIs solid at -7 for 29C in Melbourne...

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#1442358 - 26/11/2017 13:05 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 670
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
I'm a bit worried that we won't get yo make use of the clear air and CAPE to the West, hasn't the trough moved too far East now? Someone please tell me I'm wrong.

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#1442359 - 26/11/2017 13:07 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
The trough is lying about from about Colac to Westmere to Horsham at the moment.

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#1442360 - 26/11/2017 13:16 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Kunatua]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 670
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
The trough is lying about from about Colac to Westmere to Horsham at the moment.


Ahh cool, good news! I'm just on the mobile so didn't do any proper analysis other than looking at the radar and thinking things were only developing on the trough just to the West of Melbourne.

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#1442361 - 26/11/2017 13:25 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Towers are going up to the west of ballarat- cap has broken there.. looks like the
convection on the troughline not breaking the cap atm

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#1442362 - 26/11/2017 13:27 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Actually correction it has. Towers also over Daylesford way. Nothing on blind Freddy radar yet

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#1442363 - 26/11/2017 13:44 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hmm they might be the only surface based convection so far? Has all been out of mids so far (as it most commonly is in VIC) Surface trough is / was east of your description based on wind obs. Trough probably lagging above surface tho.
Lots of blue sky to my west and even SW but still spitting rain here with random rumbles.
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#1442364 - 26/11/2017 13:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes feels very humid here in NE/SE wind and 23c because of south thunderstorms block sun so should be warmer in North of Bendigo is clear should boost West trough.

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#1442366 - 26/11/2017 14:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Further to Kunatua's ob, the cu in the blue sky is exploding, some with pileus on top. Interesting few hours ahead
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#1442373 - 26/11/2017 15:40 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 670
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Looks to be kicking off nicely now!

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#1442374 - 26/11/2017 15:44 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
yep,been lovely non stop sun here, emptied out another 1.2mm so over 9mm for last night and today. 23/15 atm. Bit excited, lol
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#1442381 - 26/11/2017 16:42 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like Heavy Thunderstorm in NW heading SE and another one in SW is moving NE. I always keeping Bendigo is loop hole

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#1442382 - 26/11/2017 16:47 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 670
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Bit worried about the anvil getting ahead of these and killing them before they get to Melb.

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#1442385 - 26/11/2017 17:13 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Looks like maybe the outflow boundary has got away from the storms SW of Ballarat? LOL, only guessing from home. Or perhaps you are right Balmz, they are getting along way out

At home Sunny nudging 24 and DP 14-15 with light NE winds still = fingers still crossed
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#1442390 - 26/11/2017 18:10 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Sun disappearing behind anvil blow out from the N and NW. Looking at visible satellite maybe the southern ones were ruined by the maritime air catching up to them?

Very nasty stuff atm to the NW and N will be interesting if they hold or expand.
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