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#1441710 - 19/11/2017 19:03 VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Time for another thread I guess I'll get it underway

Another week of warm to hot weather with many centers including Melbourne and Mildura seeing temps around 30C for the whole week. Storms will continue across the ranges all week with the chances in the Melbourne and other areas increasing later in the week.

Really its just a repeat of the week just gone - lets hope for more ripping storms!
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#1441715 - 19/11/2017 19:19 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread logansi👍

Yep another warm week ahead, be interesting
To see what comes of it all? Hopefully some
Handy rainfall.

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#1441762 - 20/11/2017 13:16 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for Tread...

Looks like next system seem weak

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#1441791 - 20/11/2017 18:41 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks for the thread logansi smile

Hear what your saying CA - but for me this period holds all previously stated above, but also with the blocking high in Tasman (a series off which I cant recall ever seeing at this time of the year) allows the development of a pre-summer (unusual) Easterly Dip scenario to deliver rain to SE AUS near and following logansi's thread date range??:


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#1441812 - 20/11/2017 22:54 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
These are the heatmaps from tonights access run ( I always find it best at reading temperature compared to GFS and co), quite amazing really, most models indicate that bar next Sunday & Monday (still low/mid 20 likely) most centres including Melbourne will see every day for the rest of November around 30C. With no cool air in sight Storms also looking widespread again next weekend. Jane Bun was talking tonight about a number of records that are likely to be broken, I predict many centers will see 20 days in a row of above-average temperatures (10th to 30th)




Also CFSV2, has strong heat signals for the next month!





Edited by logansi (20/11/2017 23:01)
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#1441849 - 21/11/2017 09:43 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
You really need to extend the dates out to December

Wednesday looks marginal for thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday slightly better upper level support (though not fantastic) out west. Moisture improves until Sunday - I'd reckon Saturday will have ample humidity for some solid thunderstorms.

The real pity is the lack of a deep upper level trough - we would be seeing some serious storms and hefty rain totals.

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#1441863 - 21/11/2017 12:46 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had checked GFS again and hope enough humid pump from NSW into East half Victoria as upper low or through sit over Victoria up to 5 days and West half Victoria more like dry SE/S wind.


Edited by chasers addict (21/11/2017 12:47)

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#1441891 - 21/11/2017 15:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I have a sixth sense for thunderstorms, I felt there was going to be some and looked at the radar and have noticed some around Marysville and surrounds heading NNW. There is some in Moe heading in a similar direction but the forcefield will dissolve them or deflect them northerly as they are heading towards the Metro area!
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#1441905 - 21/11/2017 17:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hot again here today before strong seabreeze arrived. Plenty of convection on the ranges again, all drifted northward quadrant as predicted.

Agree with all thoughts about a stormy period looming, ....and so does GFS:


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#1441908 - 21/11/2017 18:11 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
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Loc: Always in the wrong place.
The Moe storm has disappeared off the radar and the storm around Marysville are losing their punch 🥊
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#1441910 - 21/11/2017 18:28 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: The Fishman]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
The Moe storm has disappeared off the radar and the storm around Marysville are losing their punch 🥊


Fish - the storm popped up pretty much
In Traralgon and moved slightly west but
Only got as far as Morwell. Moe didn't
Get anything out of that one I don't think.
The most intense part of the storm looked
Around the Latrobe Valley airport which
Received 14mm. But very localised.

One single little cell popped up last night
Right over newborough and dropped 5mm
At my parents place. But nothing at all in
Moe or up here.

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#1441915 - 21/11/2017 19:54 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: The Fishman]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
The Moe storm has disappeared off the radar and the storm around Marysville are losing their punch 🥊


...I reckon the Moe one was brewed at Mt Tassie and drifted NNW'wards till it fizzled over Newborough.

[edit] - gives a bit of confidence that the same thing could happen tomoz/onwards? - for tomoz, probably brew over the city/MtDandenong and head to circa Seymour?


Edited by Petros (21/11/2017 19:59)

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#1441927 - 21/11/2017 21:57 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 561
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Amazing run of heat, humidity and storms very impressive and VERY RARE to last this long the block is record breaking and looks to last well into DEC.

When it finally breaks will probably be 15c and windy again lol.

Loving the daily storms on ranges lucky folk

Whats amazing after the coldest first 10 days in NOV on Record we now look to have a record to ear record warm month AMAZING
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#1441971 - 22/11/2017 11:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Now BOM announces short, weak La Nina probability for summer lacking rainfall but packing heatwaves...Any one want say something what Bommy think..

I had 2 days hot November 30s last 2016.

Now had 6 days over 30s and 3 more 30-s days to come to make 9 days.

Looks like La Nina as warmed Melbourne and Hobart.

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#1441977 - 22/11/2017 12:18 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: chasers addict]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Now BOM announces short, weak La Nina probability for summer lacking rainfall but packing heatwaves...Any one want say something what Bommy think..

I had 2 days hot November 30s last 2016.

Now had 6 days over 30s and 3 more 30-s days to come to make 9 days.

Looks like La Nina as warmed Melbourne and Hobart.


Yeah I m worried were are going to fall into this heatwave/blocking high pattern. Jane Bun was saying last night that Melbourne could have more 30+ days in a row, than the previous record for number of 30+ days!
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#1442081 - 23/11/2017 13:15 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Fairly rapid build-up around midday with storms now firing up along southern edge of ranges north of Sale and eastwards. Steering seems to be taking them towards ENE - not a common direction - so will be interesting to see if any progress across the coastal country to their south.

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#1442097 - 23/11/2017 14:51 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Nice weak cells around out flow cool down 30c and the wind shear is Southey direction from Tasmanian to NSW should boost thunderstorms as middle level winds from NW to SE direction.



Edited by chasers addict (23/11/2017 14:51)

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#1442103 - 23/11/2017 15:54 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
As is always the case, anything that comes from the NW is evaporated and dissolved by the forcefield
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#1442121 - 23/11/2017 17:15 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
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Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
i'll be honest i'm happy they evaporated today around the city as I was flying lol - they can go for it now!

Also just a little update, for those loving the heat, its sticking around models pointing to yet another hot stretch starting next Tuesday (after 2 cool days) and continuing into the first week of December! Madness!
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#1442130 - 23/11/2017 18:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Weve had our one flash of lightning 👏🏻 Forcefield will activate now! 😂🤣
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#1442135 - 23/11/2017 19:12 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hot day here 35C before a pair of storms developed in the LV and (unusually) tracked fairly westwards to graze Maffra from both the north (early arvo) and south (late arvo). 1.25mm in my gauge, hopefully a mm or so more at Royal Maffra (slightly more N'wards than the township - this type of rain is like liquid fertilser falling from the sky for our newly couched 13th fairway smile ....might need to take a machete to play on it next week if these storms continue wink

Here's a snap of the southward grazing storm:



Brewed over Sth Trafalgar, post marked for Sale circa 5:30pm

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#1442136 - 23/11/2017 19:32 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep p, we only had 2mm out of that storm!
Looked so good on the radar but flew straight
Over the top and then as always intensified
Out around the hazel wood area!!

Reached 33c up here today! This stretch of
Heat can only laugh at now!! It's unbelievable!

Just gotta hope we can be lucky enough
To jag more storms with decent rain to off
Set the hot dry days?
Fires are going to start becoming a real
Concern now is we don't get widespread rain

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#1442140 - 23/11/2017 19:51 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
They came, the saw, they disappeared quicker than Harold Holt
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1442141 - 23/11/2017 19:53 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
I wish there was an archive of the radar patterns we could use to compare pre-Xmas 2011 to post-Xmas 2011 to finally put this discussion to rest!
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#1442142 - 23/11/2017 19:58 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Still a chance of something coming from the west but - so far - only a trace. I commented earlier about uncommon steering on today's storms and so does Petros - but in opposite directions! I wonder if there's any meaning to it.

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#1442146 - 23/11/2017 20:24 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Agree TB & P, headed N/E here, then E, close to S/E - appeared stationary at times, was unusual for sure.

Upper winds affected it maybe TB ?
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#1442149 - 23/11/2017 21:04 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Saw a couple of good crawlers around the inner west of Melbourne around 7pm, some brief heavy rain but mostly gusty winds as a lot of rain evaporated into the dry air.

Radar seems to show more coverage of showers in the last 30 mins or so.
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#1442168 - 24/11/2017 00:33 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 561
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Amazing stretch of weather day after day of hot humid and local thunderstorms just amazing.

More widespread storms Fri and Sat cooler with showers Sun

Cool Mon

Tues Wed Thurs back to hot humid arvo storms and sunny which be the 3rd week of this pattern amazing.

MAYBE bigger wetter change for the start of summer though its much like summer now
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#1442179 - 24/11/2017 07:22 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Alexia Offline
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Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 592
Loc: Corryong
Thunderstorms around yesterday 2.5mm rain here.

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#1442180 - 24/11/2017 07:47 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
We got another 1mm last evening from a second W to E weak storm running parallel to the foothills. 2.25mm for thread.

Yep, unusual spate of weather, storms heading E to W last Fri/Sat, due W to E yest. Normally for N Gippy, IF we do snag a storm, it'll come in from the NW off the ranges.

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#1442201 - 24/11/2017 11:41 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good upper rubbish overcast of 26.1c at moment as expected to be 35c Today, Just want some thundery rain.

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#1442208 - 24/11/2017 12:23 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Massive, truly massive, convection NNE of me. Can almost see it roiling and growing like a time-lapse. It is, I guess, where BoM radar is showing some precip near Tambo Crossing.

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#1442241 - 24/11/2017 16:35 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Very light rain for past couple of hours - along southern fringe of slow-moving storms. Less than 1mm so far. Lots of thunder - no close CGs.

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#1442244 - 24/11/2017 17:24 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
There is some real good action on the radar! Lets see how this goes 😂😂
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#1442248 - 24/11/2017 18:02 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Kicking off above Eastern Suburbs now too!

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#1442249 - 24/11/2017 18:16 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No rain here today, Maffra's role was "storm brewer" - then they headed due E like yesterday. I recorded 34C!

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#1442251 - 24/11/2017 18:29 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Got home to the western edge of a ripping storm, flangs, wind and solid rain
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#1442255 - 24/11/2017 19:31 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Absolute beast of a storm coming into the metro. Hope it holds together!

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#1442256 - 24/11/2017 19:34 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Showing no signs of breaking up yet!
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#1442258 - 24/11/2017 19:41 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ryan T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 13/01/2011
Posts: 10
Loc: West Footscray
Missed out on the storm on Saturday in West Footscray and didn't see any lightning looking out back but heard thunder. Hopefully this one hits us.

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#1442259 - 24/11/2017 19:44 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
This thing is sparking its guts out. Very green looking at it from the South too. Hope the hail isn't too big.

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#1442261 - 24/11/2017 19:51 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
4.7mm from earlier hosing. Please tell me someone has a camera in front of that and will post later
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#1442262 - 24/11/2017 20:38 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
One of the best light shows ive seen in Melbourne in a long time! The amount of clear air CGs this thing is throwing on the front edge is sick!!

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#1442263 - 24/11/2017 20:52 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Please any photos Melbourne people seem very Dark from Dockland Webcam

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#1442265 - 24/11/2017 20:55 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 215
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
Holy s***! that thunder was nasty! Got some good pics and video too. Thunder managed to set off a car alarm near by and that wasn't even the loudest bang

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#1442266 - 24/11/2017 20:58 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Not sure where it was, but was sitting on the roof of Knox shopping centre just before and a big CG struck something to the South, maybe 10km or so, huge power flash with multiple blue power flashes from the ground 5-10 seconds after. Someone has lost some power!

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#1442268 - 24/11/2017 21:01 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
yep, amazing light show to my east
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#1442269 - 24/11/2017 21:02 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
This is the best one in Melbourne since the HAARP forcefield was constructed in early 2012. But it still skirted around Werribee
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#1442271 - 24/11/2017 21:12 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: The Fishman]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
This is the best one in Melbourne since the HAARP forcefield was constructed in early 2012. But it still skirted around Werribee
Last Saturday was an absolute belter too, albeit more because of rain not lightning as such.

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#1442279 - 24/11/2017 23:13 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
jgcertified Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/11/2010
Posts: 11
Loc: SE Suburbs
Certainly got a good show from my roof. Photos below were taken using a retaining wall as the camera stand




Lightning Photos Here

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#1442280 - 24/11/2017 23:14 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Alex_96L Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2015
Posts: 215
Loc: Mulgrave (SE Suburbs), Melbour...
My view as it came in directly from the north. Didn't have the best vantage point but I tried.

IMG_0885 by Alex, on Flickr

IMG_0886 by Alex, on Flickr

IMG_0887 by Alex, on Flickr

IMG_0881 by Alex, on Flickr

Got a few loud bangs in this video. Would gotten more but I'm an idiot who forgot to hit record again crazy



I'm sure I can find more good stuff if I look through the rest of the footage

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#1442282 - 24/11/2017 23:17 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Alex_96L]
jgcertified Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/11/2010
Posts: 11
Loc: SE Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Remy
My view as it came in directly from the north. Didn't have the best vantage point but I tried.


I'm sure there's a good chance some of those will match the photos I took (was pointing in your direction.. Shame I couldn't capture the power flash as I was too low)

Edit: I can't speel gud laugh


Edited by jgcertified (24/11/2017 23:17)

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#1442284 - 25/11/2017 06:21 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: jgcertified]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Beaut video and photos jg!!!!

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#1442285 - 25/11/2017 06:21 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Love the photos and the video Remy!!!

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#1442287 - 25/11/2017 07:27 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
2.5mm y'day arvo, quite heavy shower.

Thanks for the vid & pics gents smile
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1442288 - 25/11/2017 08:41 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Skywalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2007
Posts: 266
Loc: Burnside Heights/Sunshine West...
Another humid warm morning out there. Those storms last night heading through the northern suburbs narrowly missed us here to the east. The night before we narrowly missed again, this time to the west. Very frustrating. Hopefully today is the day.

Note: For you new posters on here, could you please update your profiles & put your locations in there. Your reporting on here is pretty useless if we don't know where your reporting from.

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#1442289 - 25/11/2017 08:41 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just a brief early morning shower to report here.

Perhaps we'll get a storm later today, if we get some clear sky.

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#1442292 - 25/11/2017 09:52 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
0.8mm overnight from a brief shower near midnight, sunny warm and a little damp atm. Be some decent storms around our state today again.

Just hope the BOM radar issues I am experiencing fix up by this arvo
_________________________
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#1442300 - 25/11/2017 11:37 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for videos well done,

Your thunderstorm development started from Bendigo East, and i got nothing and formed into line slow moving growing bigger all way south/SE to Melbourne.

Now on Radar cells are in development North of Bendigo and seem it will become thunderstorms and move to Melbourne is chance..

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#1442301 - 25/11/2017 11:39 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
stormygirl Offline
Weather Babe and Moderator

Registered: 21/12/2004
Posts: 4041
Loc: Melbourne, SE Burbs
Hi Everyone,

Long time no post. Life just seems to get busier and busier...

No time for any form of chasing, but I did manage to snap a phone pano while out and about last night. It was taken at 7:56pm from Chadstone, about 20 minutes before the storm hit. A few close CG's, but not too much rain, unfortuntely. Ended up with 4.5mm. 40.6mm for the month so far.

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#1442303 - 25/11/2017 13:21 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Get ready again:

_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1442307 - 25/11/2017 14:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Bit to much cloud here, lol, scared Ill miss out. Been some sun, has got to 28 briefly certainly popping like crazy within my view, just not down wind of here.....
_________________________
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#1442313 - 25/11/2017 17:05 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Skywalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2007
Posts: 266
Loc: Burnside Heights/Sunshine West...
Once AGAIN, another great big gap over this tragic neck of the woods, courtesy of the Caroline Springs storm shield.

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#1442314 - 25/11/2017 17:27 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Skywalker]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: Skywalker
Once AGAIN, another great big gap over this tragic neck of the woods, courtesy of the Caroline Springs storm shield.

Its that new broad meadows back up wink

Got smashed with rain here in Burwood East
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1442315 - 25/11/2017 17:50 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Think we might be done for the day in Melb, hopefully not, but the skies don't look great to the North anymore. Unless more educated folks here have any ideas.

Just missed out on that storm really, it developed around me and went nuts to the South. Was still nice to hear some rumbles after last night. Fingers crossed for later but might have to wait until tomorrow.

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#1442316 - 25/11/2017 17:56 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
The cell that hit Berwick has caused damage, lots and lots of SES calls
_________________________
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#1442318 - 25/11/2017 18:25 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1266
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Well how about that lol!!
25mm in 10min of mayhem!!

Hail the size of 5 cent pieces, white
Everywhere like mid winter!!
Shredded trees and debris everywhere!

And water leaking inside!! Buckets and
Towels in full force!!

Just hopped on my roof to check the gutters
30min after storm passed and the gutters
Are still half full with hail stones

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#1442327 - 25/11/2017 20:50 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: stormygirl]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: stormygirl
Hi Everyone,

Long time no post. Life just seems to get busier and busier...

No time for any form of chasing, but I did manage to snap a phone pano while out and about last night. It was taken at 7:56pm from Chadstone, about 20 minutes before the storm hit. A few close CG's, but not too much rain, unfortuntely. Ended up with 4.5mm. 40.6mm for the month so far.



Your photos have been missed SG.

Great snap 😀

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#1442328 - 25/11/2017 20:52 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Well how about that lol!!
25mm in 10min of mayhem!!

Hail the size of 5 cent pieces, white
Everywhere like mid winter!!
Shredded trees and debris everywhere!

And water leaking inside!! Buckets and
Towels in full force!!

Just hopped on my roof to check the gutters
30min after storm passed and the gutters
Are still half full with hail stones


Bloody Australia.....well done Dooga.

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#1442331 - 25/11/2017 22:16 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Great photo StormyGirl! And great weather (!) Dooga!

Pretty boring here. Longish period of very light rain -again, like yesterday, on edges of storms. About 1.5mm.

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#1442334 - 26/11/2017 07:51 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
6.9mm overnight, no thunder but a wonderful amount of noise from a storm about to pass over us now. Wow that radar is poor.
_________________________
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#1442336 - 26/11/2017 08:25 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Only 1mm further but a spectacular sound and light show to start the day, some canon like flang action.
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#1442339 - 26/11/2017 09:22 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
someone will need to start a topic for Friday-Saturday - potential for widespread flooding, totals between 100-150mm with isolated falls up to 200mm.

As for today according to the stormcast site some of the lowest LI values Ive seen forecast for victoria -8 seems centered west of Melbourne from 1pm to 4pm (the instability doesnt look mobile till 10pm tonight). Good chance of hail with any surface heating

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#1442340 - 26/11/2017 09:23 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Sounds good, Ruckle, as a way to get you moving on a Sunday morning.

100% cloud cover here atm the moment, no apparent structure, humid and calm.

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#1442342 - 26/11/2017 09:27 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
what a day for the regular radar service to be broken too.

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#1442343 - 26/11/2017 09:27 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
I think there is a thread for later in the week already. Of course EC on the 12z run has plenty to work with but has the system moving quite progressively through, 15mm in a solid fast moving band for me v more than 100mm on GFS over two days. Anyway off topic, some rumbles around, very unstable out there, mammatus, some sun and DP here now around 16 with NE winds. Happy Sunday.
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#1442346 - 26/11/2017 09:52 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 288
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Tropical heavy rain and thunder here this morning in Tarneit, currently 6.2mm in the gauge. Loving it!
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#1442348 - 26/11/2017 11:30 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very disappointment thunderstorm in my NE and SW edge and clear in NW...Had little heavy rain and hope more in West but looks clearing to East.

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#1442349 - 26/11/2017 11:38 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
You are still not west of the trough CA so don't call it yet. LOL, not giving you any guarantees but don't write the day off

OB: Thunder to my north and a few random fat drops atm.
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#1442350 - 26/11/2017 11:47 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Nice clearing over burumbeet / wilbura to stawell.
4am GFS looks lit from the grampians to the macedon ranges - still a -7 to -8 lifted index across a bit of broader area now.
If it can hold till 1pm and temps hit that 25-30c range it should get really exciting.

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#1442351 - 26/11/2017 11:50 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park


CAPE forecast for 4pm.

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#1442352 - 26/11/2017 12:00 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
From the BoM "Thunderstorms are more likely to be severe near the trough or on and south of the divide today."

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#1442353 - 26/11/2017 12:15 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
standalone convection commencing in that clearing now. I'd estimate the temps to be around 27c out that way. I'm not sure what happened to the weather Balloons for Melbourne - funding cuts?

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#1442354 - 26/11/2017 12:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Ruckle, the storm dumped only 6mm so far and can see clouds in West is building up

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#1442356 - 26/11/2017 12:58 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Pouring rain for the moment, pretty close thunder as well. Fun day

Edit: despite no sounding and ordinary radar


Edited by Ruckle (26/11/2017 12:59)
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#1442357 - 26/11/2017 13:04 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
We have a sounding.....

lower level cap 29C (or a little lower if closer to the trough) is the key number...
LIs solid at -7 for 29C in Melbourne...

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#1442358 - 26/11/2017 13:05 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
I'm a bit worried that we won't get yo make use of the clear air and CAPE to the West, hasn't the trough moved too far East now? Someone please tell me I'm wrong.

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#1442359 - 26/11/2017 13:07 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
The trough is lying about from about Colac to Westmere to Horsham at the moment.

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#1442360 - 26/11/2017 13:16 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Kunatua]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
The trough is lying about from about Colac to Westmere to Horsham at the moment.


Ahh cool, good news! I'm just on the mobile so didn't do any proper analysis other than looking at the radar and thinking things were only developing on the trough just to the West of Melbourne.

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#1442361 - 26/11/2017 13:25 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Towers are going up to the west of ballarat- cap has broken there.. looks like the
convection on the troughline not breaking the cap atm

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#1442362 - 26/11/2017 13:27 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Actually correction it has. Towers also over Daylesford way. Nothing on blind Freddy radar yet

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#1442363 - 26/11/2017 13:44 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hmm they might be the only surface based convection so far? Has all been out of mids so far (as it most commonly is in VIC) Surface trough is / was east of your description based on wind obs. Trough probably lagging above surface tho.
Lots of blue sky to my west and even SW but still spitting rain here with random rumbles.
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#1442364 - 26/11/2017 13:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Yes feels very humid here in NE/SE wind and 23c because of south thunderstorms block sun so should be warmer in North of Bendigo is clear should boost West trough.

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#1442366 - 26/11/2017 14:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Further to Kunatua's ob, the cu in the blue sky is exploding, some with pileus on top. Interesting few hours ahead
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#1442373 - 26/11/2017 15:40 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Looks to be kicking off nicely now!

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#1442374 - 26/11/2017 15:44 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
yep,been lovely non stop sun here, emptied out another 1.2mm so over 9mm for last night and today. 23/15 atm. Bit excited, lol
_________________________
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#1442381 - 26/11/2017 16:42 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like Heavy Thunderstorm in NW heading SE and another one in SW is moving NE. I always keeping Bendigo is loop hole

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#1442382 - 26/11/2017 16:47 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Bit worried about the anvil getting ahead of these and killing them before they get to Melb.

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#1442385 - 26/11/2017 17:13 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Looks like maybe the outflow boundary has got away from the storms SW of Ballarat? LOL, only guessing from home. Or perhaps you are right Balmz, they are getting along way out

At home Sunny nudging 24 and DP 14-15 with light NE winds still = fingers still crossed
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#1442390 - 26/11/2017 18:10 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Sun disappearing behind anvil blow out from the N and NW. Looking at visible satellite maybe the southern ones were ruined by the maritime air catching up to them?

Very nasty stuff atm to the NW and N will be interesting if they hold or expand.
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#1442391 - 26/11/2017 18:14 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good mood Thunderstorms fire up from my SW and can see cells is trying pinch clouds from North Cell

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#1442394 - 26/11/2017 18:46 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
never seen two thunderstorms crashing fron Nw and SW i am in dark in middle

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#1442395 - 26/11/2017 18:53 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing growth to my south under the anvil cloud presumably on the S and ENE boundary

Edit, Stuff to NW seems to have stopped moving SE frown
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#1442396 - 26/11/2017 19:11 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
I think the wind change is going to work against Melbourne now.

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#1442397 - 26/11/2017 19:12 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Ruckle]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
Amazing growth to my south under the anvil cloud presumably on the S and ENE boundary

Edit, Stuff to NW seems to have stopped moving SE frown


Think that growth is just starting to show up on blind Freddy radar now.

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#1442398 - 26/11/2017 19:17 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Soon show photo of two cells merge together and blown Gusty NW wind with hail, lighting heavy rain..

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#1442399 - 26/11/2017 19:35 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Only light but Sthly has made it here I imagine the Gisborne cell will die now.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1442401 - 26/11/2017 20:19 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
No Cap here in melbourne today. Shrouded in clouds meant that the surface couldn't heat up like the previous couple of days. Unfortunately that stopped most things from getting off the ground. A few isolated rumbles over the east hear and there. Enough to keep the aircraft on the ground at the lilydale airshow which was a shame (some CIN would have been useful there too). Only hope tonight is if a line forms up and marches across the state. Not sure its going to happen though.... still some stormy days ahead of us
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1442402 - 26/11/2017 20:20 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: balmz]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Originally Posted By: balmz
I think the wind change is going to work against Melbourne now.


Forcefield is in place! One got through on Friday and I doubt another can. This nearly 10 day streak of convection must come to an end soon. Im expecting a break for a few days. The last time I can remember a streak like this was December 2004
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1442406 - 26/11/2017 20:52 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Few more cells popping up now South of the line of "main" activity.. this is going to keep me guessing all evening.

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#1442411 - 26/11/2017 21:55 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
stormygirl Offline
Weather Babe and Moderator

Registered: 21/12/2004
Posts: 4041
Loc: Melbourne, SE Burbs
Hi All,

I left Melbourne SE at 9am and spent the day in Maryborough. Lightning from storms to the north and south of me the whole trip up, and a couple of rumbles in Carisbrook and spitting rain once we arrived. The remainder of the day was in bright sunshine, but did watch the impressive development to the south from the cells which developed around Beaufort in the afternoon. Left Maryborough at 3pm, and again, watched cells to the north and south of me...blue skies above. Of course, now I'm home Maryborough has a storm and my part of Melbourne received 2.4mm of light rain.

I hope to have some photos up in the next day, or so. No lightning, but the structure was pretty awesome!

Interested to see if anything does happen for Melbourne, tonight. I can't imagine it now, but stranger things have happened...
_________________________
New online weather station up and running: http://www.stormygirl.net/wx/index.html




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#1442412 - 26/11/2017 21:59 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
The surface temps were a few degrees too low today. Ive noticed a wierd storm to the north west of ballarat and i can hear it too. The upper low must be lagging behind the wind change (which is shallow).. really odd

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#1442413 - 26/11/2017 22:04 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Kunatua]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
The surface temps were a few degrees too low today. Ive noticed a wierd storm to the north west of ballarat and i can hear it too. The upper low must be lagging behind the wind change (which is shallow).. really odd


Is that storm going to get killed off by the Southerly like every shower that seems to try get up near Melbourne currently?

It's building on it's Southern edge though and Ballarat has had a Southerly for a while now.. can't work it out.

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#1442415 - 26/11/2017 22:09 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
it is thunder fog... every second sheet lightning and its a massive drizzlefest.. but radar showing hail potential. its insane

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#1442416 - 26/11/2017 22:24 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Cell just popped up near the airport.. see how many frames it lasts..

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#1442417 - 26/11/2017 22:31 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Photos looking West direction of Two Thunderstorms merge together from NW/N and SW into middle is powerful updraft looks like spaceship throw Gusty NW winds to NE winds with peas Hail not for long and thundery last hours.
Serpentine NW of Bendigo had reported large golf balls hail.

Blue Arrow Two storms merge.

Wall cloud.




Edited by chasers addict (26/11/2017 22:33)

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#1442418 - 26/11/2017 22:35 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
bucketing down with hail

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#1442420 - 26/11/2017 22:45 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Awesome stuff chasers addict.

A brief shower, lightning around and fog rolling in is the evening here
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1442423 - 26/11/2017 22:59 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: Kunatua]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
bucketing down with hail

in keilor park?
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1442424 - 26/11/2017 23:00 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
25mm+ with that storm. irregular sized lumps of ice 3-4cm and its still going. gee this backup radar is useless- I think its also geographical misplacing echoes by up to 15km

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#1442425 - 26/11/2017 23:01 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
no im just to west of ballarat- i havent update my account in a while

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#1442426 - 26/11/2017 23:01 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Looking at blind feeddy radar you'd think all hell is about to break loose.

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#1442428 - 26/11/2017 23:05 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1028
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Things around Melbourne are definitely trying to get going, I am going to stay up so it won't happen though lol
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1442429 - 26/11/2017 23:18 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
that radar is crap.
there is another storm between here and beaufort. its flashing like nobdys business.

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#1442437 - 27/11/2017 09:38 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Edit ; wrong state!!


Edited by Homer (27/11/2017 09:39)

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#1442440 - 27/11/2017 12:00 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Now well over average November 64mm out of 34.7mm.

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#1442450 - 27/11/2017 13:13 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No storm at Maffra yesterday, just a mm or so in showers - and nothing since.

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#1442636 - 29/11/2017 00:43 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for this event:

Read my report for my last day in Sydney (Monday November 20th 2017 - http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1440990/9), which included a beautiful sunset during the flight back to Melbourne and an amazing thunderstorm near Mount Buller & Mansfield; this is the closest I've ever come to a cumulonimbus in a plane, and I ended up flying through the storm's anvil!! grin

Now for my stats from here in Belgrave:

Monday November 20th 2017

Min: NA Max: 34.8C Rain: 0mm


Tuesday November 21st 2017

Min: 17.3C Max: 37.2C Rain: 0mm


Wednesday November 22nd 2017

Min: 17.3C Max: 37.1C Rain: 0mm


Thursday November 23rd 2017

Min: 14.3C Max: 37.0C Rain: 0mm


Friday November 24th 2017

Min: 17.3C Max: 35.2C Rain: TRACE


Saturday November 25th 2017

Min: 17.5C Max: 37.0C Rain: 2.1mm


Sunday November 26th 2017

Min: 18.1C Max: 29.2C Rain: 7.4mm


Monday November 27th 2017

Min: 15.2C Max: 26.2C Rain: 3.1mm


For the most part it was hot, humid and unsettled period with plenty of sunshine, but also plenty of shower and thunderstorm action! smile

We had severe thunderstorms about the ranges to the northeast on Tuesday November 21st 2017.


Wednesday November 22nd was a brief respite; the only thing worth mentioning was smoke haze from a small bushfire in the Bunyip State Park to the east of Gembrook. Thankfully winds were light in spite of the hot weather, so the blaze didn't seem to get very far; correct me if I'm wrong. Otherwise, no storm activity to report.


Severe thunderstorm activity was much more widespread on Thursday November 23rd. Storms began developing over Melbourne around lunchtime and eventually organised into a line that threatened the Belgrave area. Unfortunately they mostly weakened as they moved in 3pm, but not before whipping up some very dark, turbulent skies with plenty of thunder and even a dangerously-close CG lightning strike! And once the storm line moved in, we enjoyed several hours of thundery rain (moderately heavy at times) with cool, gusty winds! smile

Showers and thunderstorms moved through Melbourne again later that night while I was down in Harkaway, Narre Warren North, Endeavour Hills and Dandenong; a couple of times I ran into more heavy rain. One particular storm cell flared to life at sunset over the Yarra Valley and unleashed some spectacular, dangerous lightning strikes and booming thunderclaps! smile


The action really kicked up big time on Friday November 24th! Leftover shower and storm activity from the previous day cleared by lunchtime. Once the sun returned storms began reforming, intensifying as the afternoon progressed, particularly over the highlands.

A couple of small but intense thunderstorm cells developed over the Yarra Valley to our north/northwest around 5pm and rolled southeast towards us, bringing darkness and the risk of dangerous lightning and heavy rain. But all we got was a few rumbles of thunder as they approached, followed by a couple of raindrops around 7pm (both storms weakened on approach). When the Sun came out, I caught a nice rainbow! smile

But that was just the beginning! All the while I kept watching the radar and noticed how very dark and ominous it was becoming across the northern horizon; lurking behind these two cells was the line of violent thunderstorms that would go onto smash through Melbourne's eastern suburbs later that night (unfortunately with at least one person killed by lightning).

I spent the evening down in nearby Ferntree Gully. As the Sun began its descent in the west after I arrived from Belgrave around 7:30pm, cloud increased overhead and the northern sky became increasingly dark, almost black, with a wave-like shelf cloud (tinged green) looming over the Yarra Valley and Dandenong Ranges; a severe thunderstorm warning went out around this time. As the squall line edged closer the lightning started up, initially as faint flickers but then bolts began flying about, with dangerous CGs slamming into the ground!

The shelf cloud swept overhead from the north at about 8pm, accompanied by gusty winds and followed by a dark, tumultuous mess of cumulonimbus (tinged pink, orange, yellow and red by the setting sun) with increasingly frequent and close thunder and lightning, along with spitting rain; I briefly caught sight of another faint rainbow! But over the course of an hour the impending storm front "split in two", with one intense cell forming to our northwest (towards Wantirna, Ringwood, Mitcham and Nunawading) and another equally intense storm cell sweeping southeast from the Yarra Valley into Mount Dandenong, Monbulk, Emerald and Gembrook to the east.

Thus Ferntree Gully where I was at the time didn't get a direct-hit (nor did Belgrave where I live), but up until 9pm I got treated to one of the best sound-and-light displays I've seen in a long, long time; plenty of thunder and TONNES of lighting, on average once every 5-15 seconds at various intervals! The cell to our northwest was the most lightning-active, with plenty of CCs slashing the clouds and lots of DANGEROUSLY-CLOSE CGs striking the ground!! =D

The rain was a bit heavier and winds remained quite blustery during the course of the storm (but as stated earlier the two cells missed us, so we didn't get the most torrential rainfall). The thunder and lightning stopped by about 9:15pm, and by 11pm the storm itself cleared.


More showers and storms swept down from the north up until about 2:30am on Saturday November 25th 2017; this day became the climax for me, and the Belgrave area scored a direct-hit, so please read on! wink

The bulk of the day was fairly uneventful, except for a few mostly high-based teasing showers during the early/mid-afternoon period. But by 4:30pm, the Sun disappeared and the skies to our north and northwest turned very dark as violent thunderstorms powered up and began amalgamating into one huge intense storm cluster stretching west over Melbourne's eastern suburbs! Rain and possible hail could be seen cascading over the Dandenongs as the storms raced south towards us, and by 4:45pm it became extremely dark overhead and then the thunder and lightning started up!

The cell directly overhead broke lose and dumped its precipitation just to our south (maybe with hail as the clouds were tinged green in spots, but otherwise it was very dark), but not before unleashing some EXTREMELY DANGEROUS lightning strikes (the bolts were burning into my retinas, and they struck perilously close to my house, forcing my family to disconnect the Internet) and deafening thunderclaps that nearly forced my heart into my throat!! And all the while it became very windy as another storm cell immediately to our north came charging in, and then at about 5pm it bucketed down with rain! =D

The downpour lasted about 15-20 minutes and by around 5:15pm the storm headed south, but not before unleashing a few more bolts of lightning, along with near-continuous rolling thunder! smile

The peak rainfall rate during this spectacular thunderstorm was 77mm/hr btw! But in the end I only recorded about 5mm of rain. The temperature dropped from about 32C to about 21C as the storm swept through.

The remainder of the day was cooler and mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain that lasted well into the night.


Sunday November 26th 2017 was supposed to be a real major severe storm event for Melbourne, but it turned into an anti-climax! All I got was thundery rain while I was down in Dandenong during the morning (I didn't see any lightning but did hear thunder, and the rain was quite heavy at times), followed by some very interesting cloud structure from showers and storms over the Mornington Peninsula to the south on my way home around lunchtime.

It stayed mostly cloudy up until 4pm, followed by a warm, muggy, mostly sunny afternoon, except for some high cloud from the anvil of afternoon storms down near Geelong and the Surf Coast to the southwest, and for increasing cloudcover (during the evening) from the severe storms that were raging over Northern Victoria; the clouds from these particular storms really helped to enhance the sunset! The cool change swept in around sunset btw, ensuring we had a comfortable night. smile


Monday November 27th 2017 was still somewhat humid but otherwise a gloriously fine, warm and mostly sunny day! The only exception was a few more massive thunderstorms that yet again exploded over the highlands to the northeast of Melbourne, which I caught a glimpse of while down in Berwick. smile

A couple of my pics from this event, which I've uploaded to Instagram. More pics will follow once I get through the backlog from my trip to Sydney lol. smile


Friday November 24th 2017 - Ferntree Gully

Shelf cloud ahead of the looming severe thunderstorm
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bb3_lh5gE6H/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

Intense CC lightning during the storm (this was the best frame from the many videos I took lol)
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bb54CdlAJhW/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak


Saturday November 25th 2017 - Belgrave

Huge dark cumulonimbus storm clouds looming overhead
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bb6fVk3AMNf/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak

My best video frame during the storm of a CG lightning strike
https://www.instagram.com/p/Bb6gGamAJlB/?hl=en&taken-by=aussiestormfreak


Edited by aussiestormfreak (29/11/2017 00:47)

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#1442773 - 29/11/2017 19:42 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Again storms fired up around Mansfield and Mount Bullet 😳😂😮😆
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1442912 - 30/11/2017 15:17 Re: VIC - Continuing Heat as Instability Grows | NOV 19 - NOV 25th [Re: logansi]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1139
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Everything has been deflected south today 😳👌🏻
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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