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#1441864 - 21/11/2017 12:49 NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2255
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
As noted by Gringos and something I've been keeping an eye on, majority of models are going for another combo deep surface trough combining with upper trough/low to produce widespread instability across NSW from late this week and well into next week.

Inland NSW should start to see showers, storms (possibly severe) and rain from later this week as trough pushes east and then stalls. Moisture looks great, particularly in the east throughout the outlook period.

ACCESS-G is the most bullish progging widespread falls. I'd expect storms will have flash flooding, large hail and wet microbursts.







Be interesting to see what the PM models run with - given the variation to last weeks outbreak, which still weren't settled 24 hours prior.


Edited by Seabreeze (29/11/2017 18:52)
Edit Reason: added 'mainly inland' to title to reflect what happened

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#1441877 - 21/11/2017 14:14 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 392
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
I hope we get something this time, we got nothing out of the last system, and I mean nothing but wind.

The ground has gone dry, and I was going to give it a colourful descriptive Aussie colloquialism of how dry it is, but there may be some children who may read these, so I will not put them here.

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#1441879 - 21/11/2017 14:18 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: J Pabo]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2255
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: J Pabo
I hope we get something this time, we got nothing out of the last system, and I mean nothing but wind.

The ground has gone dry, and I was going to give it a colourful descriptive Aussie colloquialism of how dry it is, but there may be some children who may read these, so I will not put them here.


Whereabouts are you J Pabo? A location may help.

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#1441884 - 21/11/2017 15:11 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 392
Loc: Clydesdale NSW
Clydesdale NSW

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#1441895 - 21/11/2017 16:33 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: J Pabo]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1990
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: J Pabo
The ground has gone dry, and I was going to give it a colourful descriptive Aussie colloquialism of how dry it is, but there may be some children who may read these, so I will not put them here.

Dry as a chip?

Whoops. Will be banned now by the pc sanitiser police!

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#1441898 - 21/11/2017 16:53 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Drizabone?

Will all be watching the model runs as they unfold this week I suspect.

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#1442125 - 23/11/2017 17:38 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2255
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Models still quite interested in an eastward moving trough over the weekend and into next week with showers & storms, possibly severe. We’ve already seen severe storms form over the ranges today.

Looking ahead, later next week and into weekend, all models are hinting at another Tasman Low developing with significant widespread rain. Ec even keen for a decent event. Much better than the 6 months of boredom we had. Meanwhile, the NE’erles continue unabated.

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#1442126 - 23/11/2017 17:53 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4223
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There's a chain of black cores NW of Sydney and another black core chain developing West of Camden, but they're not moving.

You can see distant towers from here to the NW.

Quote:
The ground has gone dry, and I was going to give it a colourful descriptive Aussie colloquialism of how dry it is

So nothing to do with a deceased dingo...

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#1442194 - 24/11/2017 10:35 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3126
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Somewhere like Goulburn could score 5-6 storm days in a row with this setup.

They had 12mm out of yesterday's (23/11) effort. The storm briefly came close to escarpment edge and there was moderate frequency lightning in Bowral for a short while.

Storm shield prevented any escape from highlands, except further down the coast around Bawley point.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

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#1442210 - 24/11/2017 12:30 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
chapo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/02/2012
Posts: 324
Loc: Campbelltown
Storms are starting to pop up on the Blue Mountains

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#1442211 - 24/11/2017 12:36 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1718
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Yes towers to my West here as well can be seen,I will watch to see if they move a little further East today, or stay on the ranges again ,like yesterday.
_________________________
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Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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#1442215 - 24/11/2017 13:08 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Storms started to my south, west & east in very similar places to yesterday.

Some obvious precip under them - several QUITE black cloud bases.

Our phone system fritzed by lightning yesterday arvo - still out.

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#1442216 - 24/11/2017 13:22 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
isaY Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Sky here looks to mirror the current radar.
White fluffies (isay cloud tech term) everywhere.
Some dark bases to the south east and east.
Building but radar makes it look like its all travelling towards north east.

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#1442217 - 24/11/2017 13:41 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4223
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Nice cloudscapes on the Western horizon. View from the Chatswood Golf Club car park:





The storm cells are moving today, drifting slowly towards the NE. Not expecting anything here, but something might drift in to Sydney's outer West, or possibly develop there.

------

There's a big variation in temperature across the metro area, barely 21 on the beach, about 30 in the middle Ring and 33 in the outer West.

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#1442218 - 24/11/2017 14:02 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 436
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Just heard a rumble here. Closest storm is west of Warragamba which is odd.

EDIT: by looking at the radar seems that there is a new cell that popped into existence near Appin. Which would make more sense.


Edited by Sidney (24/11/2017 14:03)

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#1442219 - 24/11/2017 14:15 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 916
Loc: Cammeray
That cell near Appin is encouraging, though I assume it's merely a tease for us nearer the coast. It never seems to develop equally close to the coast in the Metro

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#1442220 - 24/11/2017 14:25 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2255
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Riding the seabreeze front - don't think they'll push to the coast; maybe some anvil rain later?

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#1442222 - 24/11/2017 14:28 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 916
Loc: Cammeray
The anvils are about to take our sunshine. Bastards

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#1442223 - 24/11/2017 14:29 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Jimi]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4223
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Jimi
That cell near Appin is encouraging, though I assume it's merely a tease for us nearer the coast. It never seems to develop equally close to the coast in the Metro

I think storms have a bias towards high ground and they don't like the sea breeze (a layer of cool, stable air that cuts off convection). Appin is about 150 metres above sea level, but areas not far to the South are 500 metres plus. Also, it's far enough inland that the sea breeze isn't too strong.


Edited by Steve777 (24/11/2017 14:29)

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#1442226 - 24/11/2017 14:35 Re: NSW - Trough and widespread showers, rain and severe storms, mainly inland 24/11 to 29/11/2017 [Re: Kino]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 436
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Detailed STW issued for outer south western sydney now under that nasty looking cell.


Edited by Sidney (24/11/2017 14:36)

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