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#1442684 - 29/11/2017 12:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:01 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Tropical Cyclone Cempaka was recently located north of the region near 8.7S 111.5E, approximately 40 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected move slowly southeast before taking a more south to southwesterly track later on Wednesday. Its likely to enter the Western Region on Wednesday evening and may still be at cyclone intensity whilst continuing in a south to southwesterly motion towards open waters well north of the Australian Continent.

Towards the end of the week, this system may interact with another tropical low (03U) that is expected to approach from the northwest (see system details below). It's not yet clear how these systems will affect one another and its not impossible that the two systems merge into one. Regardless of the outcome, there remains a High likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region from Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High
Friday:
High
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442686 - 29/11/2017 12:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome
From BoM 28/11/17


A second tropical low (03U lies north of the region near 7.6S 98.6E. It is expected to move generally southeast during the next few days, and it may develop as it does so, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday. Its likely to enter the Western Region, to the south of Java on Friday.

From Thursday the system may move close to Christmas Island leading to a period of gusty winds, increased shower and thunderstorm activity and rough seas.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442688 - 29/11/2017 12:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 8.6 degrees South, 101.0 degrees East , 555 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:
The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday as a Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally conditions and heavy rain are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system is expected to turn towards the southeast and intensify into a tropical cyclone




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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442690 - 29/11/2017 12:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Looks like 96S may just sneak into BOM jurisdiction and be the first TC for this year...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442775 - 29/11/2017 20:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Both lows seem to be in a broad trough stretching right accross to East Timor by looking at https://www.windy.com

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#1442781 - 29/11/2017 20:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Looks like 96S may just sneak into BOM jurisdiction and be the first TC for this year...

Yea it has to go below 10 degrees south and 95s is now Ex-TC CEMPAKA according to BMKG so if 96s forms in our area we should get to name it.

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#1442812 - 30/11/2017 00:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yes RW first one if all goes well . smile

Equatorial trough should help steer the low to the SE which will give it its best chance to intensify and come our way.

Mid level ridge parked over Kimberley and Top End if strong enough is going to steer it southwards how much all depends on a couple of other factors manifesting themselves over the next few days.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442813 - 30/11/2017 00:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Windy got this by Sunday morning Cat 1-2 still quite a ways off the coast.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442870 - 30/11/2017 12:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 443
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
It is forecast to weaken rapidly south of the 20 degree mark is it from increasing wind shear as well as cooler sst.

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#1442889 - 30/11/2017 13:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

And here we have it first TC for the season TC Dahlia..

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 10:02 pm WST on Wednesday 29 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 2 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located near 8.4S 101.5E approximately 530 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island. It is expected to move generally east to southeast over the next couple of days and it is likely to enter the Western Region to the south of Java on Friday. The system is likely to move southward over the weekend and slowly intestify.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is expected to pass Christmas Island to the north leading to squally conditions, heavy rainfall and rough seas over the next few days. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone information for further details [www.bom.go.au/wa/warnings].

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:High

Friday:High

Saturday:High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442892 - 30/11/2017 13:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445194 - 19/12/2017 14:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25304
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
WA looking more and more likely to see a coastal crossing after xmas. Models all gradually coming into alignment.
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June 2018 total - 3.0mm (21mm)
July 2018 total - 14.0mm (15mm)
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#1445247 - 19/12/2017 17:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 320
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Mick, yep GFS is still keen on a Kimberley crossing. EC and BOM not so much. At least it makes for an interesting week or so, watching and waiting to see if anything will come of it. Not a hell of a lot of model agreement on direction etc, other than the fact that there is something brewing.

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#1445309 - 20/12/2017 00:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
If latest GFS comes off it will be a fair bit of weather for West Kimberley / Pilbara..... 😳

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#1445312 - 20/12/2017 02:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
zobubble Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 62
Loc: Broome, WA
Yay!

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#1445353 - 20/12/2017 11:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yep what I'm reading on the current predictions , models are in agreement on a few things.
One is that a low or two are going to form in the next couple of days in the Timor Sea or Banda Sea and head in a South Westerly direction towards OZ.

Lots of variables after that though with ridges and steering mechanisms etc. affecting the outcome of intensity and direction .

Clearer picture probably going to emerge when the low/lows actually form because basically the main factor for us anyway atm is where and how far to the west they will develop into a low .

Watch this space .... wink
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445495 - 21/12/2017 20:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
After today’s model runs... Mmmmm 🤔

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#1445497 - 21/12/2017 20:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
ARGHH. I hope that EC doesn't happen Sepo. In Perth for 3 weeks. Typical always happens when I am away. I guess we need to wait until something actually initiates until we can take it all seriously. Interesting days ahead no doubt. Will be watching carefully. Didn't book a return flight home so I could be flexible in heading back if anything is nearby.
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#1445504 - 21/12/2017 21:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 320
Loc: Karratha, WA
Interesting times! BOM wanting Dampier and the others keen on Broome - Pardoo.

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#1445505 - 21/12/2017 21:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Reckon theres a 50/50 chance of any TC coming this way atm but early days ..

But don't worry Pops we can look after your beer fridge for you if you not around... wink wink

Going down to Perth 8th Jan for 4 weeks myself so may miss some of the action.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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