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#1445512 - 21/12/2017 23:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Azzad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/12/2013
Posts: 107
Loc: Karratha
Yeah hopefully Rain in Karratha soon, sick of the dust!
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#1445560 - 22/12/2017 15:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome


Not much has changed with the models recently and still lots of variables to consider in the next couple of days.
One new player into the scenario is a ridge forming just south of New Guinea in a couple of days and is going to have a direct influence on the Southerly tracking of the low and areas of convergence.

GFS got Cat 3 TC hitting Broome area about 27th Dec but UK model sending it crossing just south of Port Hedland.

In the next couple of days there is going to be a clearer picture as to how these 2 areas of convergence up near Timor relate to each other and then the models should come to more of an agreement as to whats going to happen.

The one thing that is sure is that once the low/lows get near the Kimberley coast, there will be a ridge that will be parked across central Australia and that will be the main steering influence and drive anything to the north east towards the Kimberley /Pilbara Coast.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1445601 - 23/12/2017 13:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah well..... models seem confused but I gues as others have said it will all depend on where the low initiates. Not a bad explanation from Nitso on the ozcyclone chasers video update this morning about steering factors as well. Main thing is that she’s a pretty good environment once something gets going..... interesting

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#1445692 - 24/12/2017 22:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Port Hedland
It all seems likely that Port Hedland should get lots of rain

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#1445696 - 24/12/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Hopefully MM, they definitely need it down there and some up here as well.

Hopefully low gets going with a bit of circulation by tomorrow this time , if good which seems like on latest sat run , then game on for the forming of a moderate cyclone...models in some sort of agreement with that.

Conditions good for fairly rapid development with low shear and good SSTs.

Finding out the direction the system adopts is the next stage but may be factors falling into place soon as well.

Interesting to see how things look or line up come Boxing day..


BTW......... Xmas cheers everyone hope you have a good one.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445732 - 25/12/2017 13:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome
Low 92S formed but still fairly indecisive as to movement and timing.
Has to work its way through the Timor Sea towards the Kimberley coast.

Interestingly a few models suggesting a Cat1 system forming and tracking along the periphery of north west Kimberley them moving south westwards.

Bringing lots of rain then finally going a bit further off the coast south of Broome and re intensifying off the coast before making landfall just south of Pt Hedland.

Variables all still in play though so just have to watch for the next couple of days to see how things eventuate.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445779 - 25/12/2017 20:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I reckon go as far West as it can and recurve down through WA to give me some thunderstorms in Kalbarri for New Years. Let the real wet season start when I get back on the 8th Jan. haha
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1445783 - 25/12/2017 20:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah thought you might be hoping for that popeye.... happy Christmas!

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#1445800 - 25/12/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah you to Sepo. Big day in the sun. Pity the 899hPa CAT 5 is now looking like a 990hPa QLD bit of fluff. Its been jinxed. Will give it one last chance.
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#1445855 - 26/12/2017 13:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Azzad Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/12/2013
Posts: 107
Loc: Karratha
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#1445860 - 26/12/2017 13:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

BOM forecast tracking for a crossing between Sandfire and Pardoo late on Dec 28th Cat 1-2.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445862 - 26/12/2017 13:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2185
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No thread for our first TC?

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#1446165 - 28/12/2017 19:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yep we moved up the road for a bit, with Hubbies work then we will be off to Hobart...Not sure when. Glad I got another cyclone before we leave. I do like them. Though the house in Hedland was better to experience it. We had no trees so the clean up was minimal.

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#1446167 - 28/12/2017 19:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kino]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Kino
No thread for our first TC?


Perhaps because Hilda did not live long.
Short lived TC can still do some impact. Eg Oswald in 2013, TC for not long, but exTC Storm impacts went a long way down east coast. I like to watch them until they run out of puff.

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#1446168 - 28/12/2017 19:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 439
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
And that was not in La Niña period!

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#1447366 - 05/01/2018 11:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
How much fun are the morning storms we are having at them moment!!! So Good!. I am enjoying the weather here so much more than Hedland. I like humidity it turns out.

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#1447411 - 05/01/2018 16:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ningergirl]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2419
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Ningergirl
I like humidity it turns out.

I can't understand why people don't like it. I suffer when it's dry.... Lol.

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#1447463 - 05/01/2018 18:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: cold@28]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 934
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
BOM has issued warning for Tropical Low way out to sea and moving west.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

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#1447614 - 06/01/2018 16:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Yep Hilin, TC Irvine Cat 1 way out West spinning around and moving away from the Cocos Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Saturday 6 January 2018
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Irving (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 12.6S
92.3E, that is 495 km west of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 13
kilometres per hour. The system is not expected to directly impact the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1447616 - 06/01/2018 16:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Almost out of range of BOM jurisdiction.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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