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#1447617 - 06/01/2018 16:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Apparently Irving has wind shear of 30 kts. That should keep a lid on it.

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#1447622 - 06/01/2018 17:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Yes TB got some ridging to content with on its southern flank which should keep it going to the west but good SSTs will help Irvine intensify by Monday.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1447623 - 06/01/2018 17:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Sooo.... What do we reckon for this other system to form up off the coast of the Kimberley? EC showing a similar run to Hilda?

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#1447625 - 06/01/2018 17:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

New low forming by tomorrow night in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf or to the east of it and should track to the west then south west.

EC got it doing a Hilda and going off the coast just south of Broome .

Some models including Access R has it going further out to the West initially then steering influences to the south east with the presence of a trough from the south and a ridge in the inland .

If it comes off it will be a stronger TC than Hilda as longer to refuel off the Kimberley/Pilbara coast .

Track forecast at this stage may be parallel to the coast between Port Hedland and Onslow .

Early days yet, but next 3 days will be crucial to how this one develops and where it will end up tracking.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1447626 - 06/01/2018 17:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
What I think is that we are going to have 2 visits - Hilda and next Joyce. Sounds like 2 old girls from the CWA but I don't think they will be making pumpkin scones! smile Yeah seems to be looking more like a coast scraper.....

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#1447627 - 06/01/2018 17:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo those names aren't amazing that's for sure.
Maybe BOM need to update their name base. wink
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1447641 - 06/01/2018 18:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
My Great Aunt was Hilda and my Grandmother Joyce...soo For that reason I am casting my vote for the EC modelling.

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#1447906 - 07/01/2018 21:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Interesting days ahead crew. Could be a big impact somewhere along the Pilbara coast. Models kind of have it initially wsw then more poleward and then returning wsw. Just where all those happen and when determines quite a lot. Realistically anywhere from Cape Leveque to Exmouth or even missing altogether
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#1447908 - 07/01/2018 21:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Im thinking a little slower to develop (as usual) and then that poleward period scruffing Broome up again before heading off down the coast.
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#1447926 - 07/01/2018 23:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah sounds logical popeye. Quite a few weakened / leaning trees that will add to clean up if we get near gales as well. Models seem to be scouring the coast, ( as opposed to hugging the coast), and at a higher intensity than Hilda.....


Edited by Sepo (07/01/2018 23:54)

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#1447927 - 08/01/2018 00:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome


Hopefully staying a little further off the coast as it comes past Broome, especially if it has had significant increase in intensity.
Models pretty much agreeing on a south westerly movement then more southerly .The timing with the southern trough and the approach of mid level ridge will be the deciders with the track .

Interesting times ahead, unfortunately be in Perth as of Tuesday so won't be on the ground for this one .
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448000 - 08/01/2018 18:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 934
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
BOM has issued Track Map and Advice for soon-to-be Joyce.

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#1448004 - 08/01/2018 18:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Well spotted Hailin.

At least it will be a bit further out from G.Point if it follows this track.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448069 - 09/01/2018 10:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
This morning models are increasingly closer to coast and the southward crossing is edging up as a result. It will be whether it has enough distance and time off coast to reach cat 3 or just edges off and struggles to form. Interesting watching. Shire have just about cleaned up around Broome from Hilda, now Joyce!

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#1448080 - 09/01/2018 11:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo interesting to note Access R has it still going a bit further west and most other models going for a more southern movement.

The ridge if weakening next two days will definitely allow for southwards track .The influence of the trough to the south also a big player in the tracking .

Yesterday lot more models going for it to bomb out more to Cat 3 or more but now most happy to go with at the most Cat 2.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448084 - 09/01/2018 11:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Latest BOM track hasn it edging closer to Broome and now making cat 3 at landfall east of Wallal. BOM seem certain of the ridge having little impact.... it seems they are splitting the difference between GFS and the Euro.....

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#1448088 - 09/01/2018 12:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Just need this thing to get out on water, then the predictions will have a little more truth to them. But yes it is looking to be pretty similar to Hilda at this stage. I wonder if it will get its toes in the water north of us, or hug the coast in it's sisters path. Hubby is down in Hedland at the moment, due back tomorrow. Might be a tad windy, smile

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#1448092 - 09/01/2018 12:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South, 125.0 degrees East , 105 kilometres south southeast of Kuri Bay and 185 kilometres northeast of Derby .
Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low will move off the northwest Kimberley coast later today. The low is expected to strengthen over open water and may become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday. There is a significant risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting northern WA on Friday.


Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome, as early as Wednesday afternoon or evening. GALES may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs during Thursday and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland later on Thursday
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448093 - 09/01/2018 12:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3533
Loc: Broome

Yes BOM going for 100kms west of Broome as a Cat 2 .....I guess that's a lot better than 10kms out Cat 1 no Cat 2 wink as was the case with Hilda.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448112 - 09/01/2018 16:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Has anyone got the criteria for issuing Blue, yellow and red alerts? Seems like no one really has a clue up here.
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