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#1448117 - 09/01/2018 16:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Pops, you going to be home for this one?

Check out this link - it may help http://www.ses-wa.asn.au/node/1542

15-20 years ago it was different (in my memory anyway) it went something like Blue = damaging winds within 72hrs, Yellow 12-24hrs and Red was imminent. What does everyone else remember it as?

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#1448150 - 09/01/2018 18:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers Leelee. Yeah home yesterday. Getting a bit excited cause I missed the first one. Wait and see what eventuates with this one I guess. Probably wont even get offshore until James Prices Point like Hilda but she obviously put on a good show. I'm thinking a CAT 2 again for Bidgy. Bit of wind here no doubt.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1448173 - 09/01/2018 18:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah I'd be excited too! Devo we're missing out here and you guys get two in a row. Hilda was a very good show, though I do hope it's not too strong as it comes over Broome and Bidyadanga, the ground must be very soft by now. Reckon they'll take the shade sails down this time? lol.

Each BOM update is putting that path closer and closer to Broome.

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#1448210 - 09/01/2018 21:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome


Eighty Mile might get a lashing.
Hope not coming into too close to the caravan park, they have been hit many times before.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448220 - 09/01/2018 23:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 952
Loc: Sth Hedland
I dont think it's such a clear cut senario just yet.
Thats my opinion anyway.


Edited by sswanss (09/01/2018 23:28)
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#1448223 - 09/01/2018 23:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yep would not surprise me if she ranps up and sets her sights on Port Hedland or further.

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#1448226 - 10/01/2018 01:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Good night all. Reckon there is a fair chance this is going to go down Pilbara way.

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#1448228 - 10/01/2018 01:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Agreed

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#1448229 - 10/01/2018 02:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think that its all guess work at the moment. Lets see when, how pronounced and how quickly that Southerly motion happens. It could even be a hint of SSE for all we know. ECO BEACH CAT 3 I reckon.
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#1448246 - 10/01/2018 09:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3488
Loc: Broome


Should start to see a bit more symmetry as the layers and outflow get more organised as it nears the warm waters off the coast of Cape Leveque today.

Just a massive 1000km wide blob atm but won't take to fire up in the energy laden conditions it should experience soon with low wind sheer, high SSTs and strong humidity to feed on.

Interesting to see it develops in the next 24hours.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448247 - 10/01/2018 09:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Agree with the possibility of SSE possible movement, just by looking at models and how the BOM track has moved east but by bit there is a hint of this, but with development now being pushed back a bit in time i reckon she will struggle to make CAT 3 before landfall - hoping anyway.

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#1448258 - 10/01/2018 10:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Any ideas why she’s been renamed 05S instead of 96S as she originally was?
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#1448267 - 10/01/2018 11:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Any ideas why she’s been renamed 05S instead of 96S as she originally was?


I was just wondering the same thing?

SH962018 - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH962018

SH052018 - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH052018

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#1448271 - 10/01/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Latest track map has Cat 3 direct hit over Sandfire... NOT THE PEACOCKS!!! shocked shocked shocked

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#1448272 - 10/01/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1906
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.

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#1448273 - 10/01/2018 12:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kino]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448274 - 10/01/2018 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?


JTWC and BOM have different criteria for TC declaration. JTWC will call it a TC before BOM.

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#1448275 - 10/01/2018 12:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1906
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?


It has by JTWC - 05S (5th cyclone southern season)

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#1448276 - 10/01/2018 12:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions-1/frequently-asked-questions#name

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for several reasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances and cyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustained surface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is 10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centers for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecasts that extend to a period less than 120 hours. Finally, JTWC does not apply the same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence, the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designation assigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC will add the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropical cyclone number only after the WMO-designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If the RSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, as a placeholder, i.e. "TS 16P (SIXTEEN)."

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#1448280 - 10/01/2018 13:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Leelee]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Leelee
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions-1/frequently-asked-questions#name

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for several reasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances and cyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustained surface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is 10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centers for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecasts that extend to a period less than 120 hours. Finally, JTWC does not apply the same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence, the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designation assigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC will add the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropical cyclone number only after the WMO-designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If the RSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, as a placeholder, i.e. "TS 16P (SIXTEEN)."


I wish this forum had a like button! Thank you! Great bit of info.
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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