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#1453882 - 22/02/2018 14:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah it looks like it even though DFES and ABC Kimberley are talking about 'more to come' as well as every man and his dog around town....

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#1453963 - 22/02/2018 23:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah jumped the gun there. Now #fakenews. I guess if they are going to look at models and pretty pics on windyapp 10 days out they are sure to be 1500kms out just as the last 4 systems have been. Nothing gets in the way of an amped up story though.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456164 - 08/03/2018 11:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
So I’m curious with GSF and EC both sticking with their now multiple run trend of the gulf low doing completely different things, EC sending it south and washing out, GSF bringing it across top end and then SW along the Kimberley coast. It seems EC are counting on the blocking high in the Tasman sticking there for an extended period while GSF are sticking with, what would normally be the expected scenario, ridge forming from the next high coming west to east. Interesting and I think if EC wins that will be it for WA, well west Kimberley anyway, for this wet.....

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#1456170 - 08/03/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OOOOH big call there Sepo. But I kind of hope you are right. Early season Tc's/and LOWS are great but once it has dragged on for 4 months everyone kind of looks forward to the onset of the dry not another TC to disrupt things. Still along way off though I guess. Another 4 weeks to go but realistically you could add another 2 weeks on to make sure of no late season surprises. Hopefully we just return to some more of the afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Even that is looking slim pickings in the short term. Cant complain about the west this year really. Other than the mozzies and maybe a few more sparks.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456171 - 08/03/2018 12:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Latest gfs run has the low running up to Timor then doing a u turn back to Darwin.Same scenario as ec just ones forming in the Timor sea and the other in the Arafura sea.Seems they are both backing that blocking high in the Tasman.I still don't think it's over yet for the Kimberley and Pilbara area.

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#1456230 - 08/03/2018 18:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Oh we'll they have both changed again.

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#1456448 - 09/03/2018 23:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah maybe the second half of March could throw something up... I also note that the MJO appears to be strengthening as it approaches the Martime Continent....

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#1456704 - 11/03/2018 22:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest EC and GFS have a beast pushing West from the Top End. Lets hope that ridging gets a little break in there somewhere to smash it onto the coast somewhere. We dont want any wasted rain potential for those places that need it. Dropping down between Karratha and Onslow would be a good outcome. Broome has had enough rain. Lets hope somewhere else cops a 350mm drenching
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456708 - 11/03/2018 22:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I thought QLD was going to get two ‘scary cyclones’ 😂

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#1456712 - 11/03/2018 22:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1908
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Nah we just get Psychlones over this way. Check out the MSM for examples.

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#1456769 - 12/03/2018 15:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

From BOM ...Seems positive for development.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 11 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 14 March 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


The monsoon trough is becoming more active over northern Australia and a tropical low is expected to develop in the Arafura Sea early next week. Environmental conditions are favourable for further development if any system that forms remains over water. Therefore the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region may increase towards the end of the week.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1456780 - 12/03/2018 15:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Meanwhile latest GSF has ridge not as strong as previous runs, as has been the case for the entire season, and a couple of consecutive coast scourers.....

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#1456781 - 12/03/2018 15:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome


Yes Sepo but one thing the models haven't been good at this season is predicting the strength of the mid to high level ridges...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457144 - 14/03/2018 13:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Supposed to go to Hedland at Easter.......Interesting timing

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#1457190 - 14/03/2018 20:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
That 919 hPa monster that EC are modelling needs to stay away from WA coast or there’ll be a mess somewhere.....

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#1457244 - 15/03/2018 12:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

Yep Access is interested in a south-southwest movement in a few days...


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 14 March 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 17 March 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low is forming over the Timor Sea. It is likely to move south-southeast towards the Top End of the Northern Territory as it develops on Thursday and Friday, before beginning to move westwards from Saturday. There is the chance the system tracks more to the south-southwest over the next couple of days, in which case there is the risk for it to move into the Western Region on Saturday, however it is more likely to remain east of 125E until later in the weekend or early next week.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457255 - 15/03/2018 13:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3612
Loc: Broome

When its gets off the coast of the Kimberley it will depend on the strength of the ridge to how far she goes west.

Also seems once the ridge has weakened then if a mid level trough has the timing and strength to drag it in towards the coast then may be game on at Cat3 or higher for between Onslow to Carnarvon.

But early days yet but be interesting how the low develops over the next four days as it has a very good monsoonal moisture inflow from the north east.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457521 - 17/03/2018 11:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Well I think we have seen the last of serious weather personally. Sadly. Hoping we can have a few rogue storms to see us in to the dry. Fingers crossed.

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#1459057 - 25/03/2018 22:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Like I said back on the 8th of March. All over now, maybe some ‘knock em down rain’ which would be nice but this heat wave is building up to nothing but a sweaty end to wet season 17/18 - but what a wet it’s been!

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