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#1442006 - 22/11/2017 19:43 WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
May as well get this thread up and going or we might miss the first few TC's off the ranks. Looking positive for at least some development over the next week here in WA.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1442013 - 22/11/2017 21:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
According to gfs ensembles 95S INVEST is going to remain week and could go anywhere. This link gets updated so it could change.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


Edited by Red Watch (22/11/2017 21:18)

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#1442067 - 23/11/2017 11:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Looks like it may ramp up in a few days time .Still has good feeding grounds happening to the north..
This may help it develop inflow and circulation but early days yet.

Development will depend what happens into early next week when the MJO ramps up a bit and favourable conditions may exist and give it even more of a chance for cyclogenesis.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442170 - 24/11/2017 00:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
SSW track forecast so far

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#1442275 - 24/11/2017 22:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Cori Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 72
Loc: South West
Hello, looking forward to this season, have a good feeling about it smile

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#1442319 - 25/11/2017 18:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
A low further north west 96s is supposed to merge with the closer low and form into a cyclone and cross the coast further south according to gfs.

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#1442365 - 26/11/2017 14:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 45
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Bom has it as a moderate chance on Monday and tuesday

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#1442368 - 26/11/2017 14:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

From BOM yesterday.
Looks a bit hopeful of a cyclone forming but it will become clearer in the next few days as it development continues.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Saturday 25 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 28 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A weak tropical low lies near 9.7S 109.5E, approximately 180 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to persist in this general area over the weekend. It's motion next week is uncertain but is largely determined on its development. It has a Low possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday with the risk increasing from Monday where it is likely to be located over open water well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Low

Monday:
Moderate

Tuesday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442446 - 27/11/2017 12:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:




Monday:
Low


Tuesday:
Moderate


Wednesday:
Moderate



A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.



Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442448 - 27/11/2017 12:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

BOM cyclone outlook looks interesting for later this week.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Low

Tuesday:Moderate

Wednesday:Moderate

A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.

Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442490 - 27/11/2017 18:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

At this stage the models suggests it seems likely that the two tropical lows 95S and 96S will interact with other in the next few days .

What sort of low/trough/cyclone we end up with will depend on the influence they have on each other and the resultant formation afterwards.

95S which is a very small system compared to 96S is definitely in a better position as far as wind shear goes 10-15knts atm compared to 96S which is in a high vertical sheer environment.

Basically all up the air at the moment though until the aftermath of the interaction between these two systems is determined.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442535 - 28/11/2017 01:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Offshore Emily Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/12/2004
Posts: 148
Loc: Adelaide / 30km Nth Exmouth
Apparently we have a cyclone!!

Forecast No. 3 for Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA
Issue Time: 2100 Mon 27 Nov 2017 WST

Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA was named as a Category 1 system at around 20:00 WST on Monday evening. The system is located just south of Java


Nothing listed on the BOM site as yet.

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#1442538 - 28/11/2017 07:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
JTWC lists it as a formation alert:

WTXS21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY
245NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261943Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CURVED MASS OF CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LIKELY TURN POLEWARD THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN

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#1442571 - 28/11/2017 12:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Not sure if it is within the Australian Cyclone jurisdiction yet or because its in Indonesian they are onto it but I could be wrong.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442574 - 28/11/2017 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Summarising from JTWC things look very suitable for this system to come alive .

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442584 - 28/11/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Track map TC Cempaka which is in Indonesian jurisdiction if it gets below 10deg south then it gets handballed to BOM but the name stays the same .


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442585 - 28/11/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442604 - 28/11/2017 19:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 873
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:58 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 1:00 pm CXT near 8.2S 98.8E, that is 800 km west
northwest of Christmas Island and slow moving.
The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday as
a Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally
conditions are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system is
expected to turn towards the southeast as it continues to intensify.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 8:00 am CXT.

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#1442610 - 28/11/2017 20:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.

Yea 95s is very week and gets absorbed by 96s which heads towards the coast as a weak cyclone or an intense low according to GFS and EC. GFS has the two doing the Fujiwara effect before forming into one cyclone.

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#1442627 - 28/11/2017 22:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Yep RW it will be interesting to see what happens if the two lows /TCs get close and what the after effect is going to be ....

There is a few scenarios but 96S because of its potential and size will probably be the dominant system and absorb whats left of TC Cempaka if they get to pair off...

If 96S wins out and stays intense with favorable wind shear and warmer waters then its game on ...I reckon.

The south Pilbara will get some action out of it, even if by the time it gets near it could be dying right off especially if it goes to far south and hits those cooler SSTs.

Early days though ..interesting few days ahead ..me thinks.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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