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#1442006 - 22/11/2017 19:43 WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
May as well get this thread up and going or we might miss the first few TC's off the ranks. Looking positive for at least some development over the next week here in WA.
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#1442013 - 22/11/2017 21:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
According to gfs ensembles 95S INVEST is going to remain week and could go anywhere. This link gets updated so it could change.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


Edited by Red Watch (22/11/2017 21:18)

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#1442067 - 23/11/2017 11:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Looks like it may ramp up in a few days time .Still has good feeding grounds happening to the north..
This may help it develop inflow and circulation but early days yet.

Development will depend what happens into early next week when the MJO ramps up a bit and favourable conditions may exist and give it even more of a chance for cyclogenesis.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442170 - 24/11/2017 00:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
SSW track forecast so far

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#1442275 - 24/11/2017 22:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Cori Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 72
Loc: South West
Hello, looking forward to this season, have a good feeling about it smile

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#1442319 - 25/11/2017 18:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
A low further north west 96s is supposed to merge with the closer low and form into a cyclone and cross the coast further south according to gfs.

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#1442365 - 26/11/2017 14:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 45
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Bom has it as a moderate chance on Monday and tuesday

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#1442368 - 26/11/2017 14:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

From BOM yesterday.
Looks a bit hopeful of a cyclone forming but it will become clearer in the next few days as it development continues.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Saturday 25 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 28 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A weak tropical low lies near 9.7S 109.5E, approximately 180 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to persist in this general area over the weekend. It's motion next week is uncertain but is largely determined on its development. It has a Low possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday with the risk increasing from Monday where it is likely to be located over open water well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Low

Monday:
Moderate

Tuesday:
Moderate
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442446 - 27/11/2017 12:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:




Monday:
Low


Tuesday:
Moderate


Wednesday:
Moderate



A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.



Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442448 - 27/11/2017 12:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

BOM cyclone outlook looks interesting for later this week.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Low

Tuesday:Moderate

Wednesday:Moderate

A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.

Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Low
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442490 - 27/11/2017 18:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

At this stage the models suggests it seems likely that the two tropical lows 95S and 96S will interact with other in the next few days .

What sort of low/trough/cyclone we end up with will depend on the influence they have on each other and the resultant formation afterwards.

95S which is a very small system compared to 96S is definitely in a better position as far as wind shear goes 10-15knts atm compared to 96S which is in a high vertical sheer environment.

Basically all up the air at the moment though until the aftermath of the interaction between these two systems is determined.
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#1442535 - 28/11/2017 01:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Offshore Emily Offline
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Registered: 12/12/2004
Posts: 148
Loc: Adelaide / 30km Nth Exmouth
Apparently we have a cyclone!!

Forecast No. 3 for Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA
Issue Time: 2100 Mon 27 Nov 2017 WST

Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA was named as a Category 1 system at around 20:00 WST on Monday evening. The system is located just south of Java


Nothing listed on the BOM site as yet.

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#1442538 - 28/11/2017 07:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
JTWC lists it as a formation alert:

WTXS21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY
245NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261943Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CURVED MASS OF CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LIKELY TURN POLEWARD THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN

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#1442571 - 28/11/2017 12:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Not sure if it is within the Australian Cyclone jurisdiction yet or because its in Indonesian they are onto it but I could be wrong.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442574 - 28/11/2017 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Summarising from JTWC things look very suitable for this system to come alive .

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442584 - 28/11/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Track map TC Cempaka which is in Indonesian jurisdiction if it gets below 10deg south then it gets handballed to BOM but the name stays the same .


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442585 - 28/11/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442604 - 28/11/2017 19:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 873
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:58 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 1:00 pm CXT near 8.2S 98.8E, that is 800 km west
northwest of Christmas Island and slow moving.
The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday as
a Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally
conditions are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system is
expected to turn towards the southeast as it continues to intensify.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 8:00 am CXT.

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#1442610 - 28/11/2017 20:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.

Yea 95s is very week and gets absorbed by 96s which heads towards the coast as a weak cyclone or an intense low according to GFS and EC. GFS has the two doing the Fujiwara effect before forming into one cyclone.

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#1442627 - 28/11/2017 22:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Yep RW it will be interesting to see what happens if the two lows /TCs get close and what the after effect is going to be ....

There is a few scenarios but 96S because of its potential and size will probably be the dominant system and absorb whats left of TC Cempaka if they get to pair off...

If 96S wins out and stays intense with favorable wind shear and warmer waters then its game on ...I reckon.

The south Pilbara will get some action out of it, even if by the time it gets near it could be dying right off especially if it goes to far south and hits those cooler SSTs.

Early days though ..interesting few days ahead ..me thinks.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442684 - 29/11/2017 12:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:01 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Tropical Cyclone Cempaka was recently located north of the region near 8.7S 111.5E, approximately 40 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected move slowly southeast before taking a more south to southwesterly track later on Wednesday. Its likely to enter the Western Region on Wednesday evening and may still be at cyclone intensity whilst continuing in a south to southwesterly motion towards open waters well north of the Australian Continent.

Towards the end of the week, this system may interact with another tropical low (03U) that is expected to approach from the northwest (see system details below). It's not yet clear how these systems will affect one another and its not impossible that the two systems merge into one. Regardless of the outcome, there remains a High likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region from Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High
Friday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442686 - 29/11/2017 12:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
From BoM 28/11/17


A second tropical low (03U lies north of the region near 7.6S 98.6E. It is expected to move generally southeast during the next few days, and it may develop as it does so, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday. Its likely to enter the Western Region, to the south of Java on Friday.

From Thursday the system may move close to Christmas Island leading to a period of gusty winds, increased shower and thunderstorm activity and rough seas.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442688 - 29/11/2017 12:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 8.6 degrees South, 101.0 degrees East , 555 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:
The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday as a Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally conditions and heavy rain are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system is expected to turn towards the southeast and intensify into a tropical cyclone




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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442690 - 29/11/2017 12:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Looks like 96S may just sneak into BOM jurisdiction and be the first TC for this year...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442775 - 29/11/2017 20:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Both lows seem to be in a broad trough stretching right accross to East Timor by looking at https://www.windy.com

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#1442781 - 29/11/2017 20:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Looks like 96S may just sneak into BOM jurisdiction and be the first TC for this year...

Yea it has to go below 10 degrees south and 95s is now Ex-TC CEMPAKA according to BMKG so if 96s forms in our area we should get to name it.

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#1442812 - 30/11/2017 00:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Yes RW first one if all goes well . smile

Equatorial trough should help steer the low to the SE which will give it its best chance to intensify and come our way.

Mid level ridge parked over Kimberley and Top End if strong enough is going to steer it southwards how much all depends on a couple of other factors manifesting themselves over the next few days.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442813 - 30/11/2017 00:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Windy got this by Sunday morning Cat 1-2 still quite a ways off the coast.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442870 - 30/11/2017 12:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 406
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
It is forecast to weaken rapidly south of the 20 degree mark is it from increasing wind shear as well as cooler sst.

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#1442889 - 30/11/2017 13:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

And here we have it first TC for the season TC Dahlia..

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 10:02 pm WST on Wednesday 29 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 2 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located near 8.4S 101.5E approximately 530 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island. It is expected to move generally east to southeast over the next couple of days and it is likely to enter the Western Region to the south of Java on Friday. The system is likely to move southward over the weekend and slowly intestify.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is expected to pass Christmas Island to the north leading to squally conditions, heavy rainfall and rough seas over the next few days. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone information for further details [www.bom.go.au/wa/warnings].

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:High

Friday:High

Saturday:High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442892 - 30/11/2017 13:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1445194 - 19/12/2017 14:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
WA looking more and more likely to see a coastal crossing after xmas. Models all gradually coming into alignment.
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December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
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#1445247 - 19/12/2017 17:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
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Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Mick, yep GFS is still keen on a Kimberley crossing. EC and BOM not so much. At least it makes for an interesting week or so, watching and waiting to see if anything will come of it. Not a hell of a lot of model agreement on direction etc, other than the fact that there is something brewing.

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#1445309 - 20/12/2017 00:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
If latest GFS comes off it will be a fair bit of weather for West Kimberley / Pilbara..... 😳

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#1445312 - 20/12/2017 02:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
zobubble Offline
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Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 62
Loc: Broome, WA
Yay!

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#1445353 - 20/12/2017 11:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Yep what I'm reading on the current predictions , models are in agreement on a few things.
One is that a low or two are going to form in the next couple of days in the Timor Sea or Banda Sea and head in a South Westerly direction towards OZ.

Lots of variables after that though with ridges and steering mechanisms etc. affecting the outcome of intensity and direction .

Clearer picture probably going to emerge when the low/lows actually form because basically the main factor for us anyway atm is where and how far to the west they will develop into a low .

Watch this space .... wink
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445495 - 21/12/2017 20:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
After today’s model runs... Mmmmm 🤔

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#1445497 - 21/12/2017 20:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
ARGHH. I hope that EC doesn't happen Sepo. In Perth for 3 weeks. Typical always happens when I am away. I guess we need to wait until something actually initiates until we can take it all seriously. Interesting days ahead no doubt. Will be watching carefully. Didn't book a return flight home so I could be flexible in heading back if anything is nearby.
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#1445504 - 21/12/2017 21:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
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Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Interesting times! BOM wanting Dampier and the others keen on Broome - Pardoo.

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#1445505 - 21/12/2017 21:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Reckon theres a 50/50 chance of any TC coming this way atm but early days ..

But don't worry Pops we can look after your beer fridge for you if you not around... wink wink

Going down to Perth 8th Jan for 4 weeks myself so may miss some of the action.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445512 - 21/12/2017 23:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Azzad Offline
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Registered: 22/12/2013
Posts: 107
Loc: Karratha
Yeah hopefully Rain in Karratha soon, sick of the dust!
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#1445560 - 22/12/2017 15:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Not much has changed with the models recently and still lots of variables to consider in the next couple of days.
One new player into the scenario is a ridge forming just south of New Guinea in a couple of days and is going to have a direct influence on the Southerly tracking of the low and areas of convergence.

GFS got Cat 3 TC hitting Broome area about 27th Dec but UK model sending it crossing just south of Port Hedland.

In the next couple of days there is going to be a clearer picture as to how these 2 areas of convergence up near Timor relate to each other and then the models should come to more of an agreement as to whats going to happen.

The one thing that is sure is that once the low/lows get near the Kimberley coast, there will be a ridge that will be parked across central Australia and that will be the main steering influence and drive anything to the north east towards the Kimberley /Pilbara Coast.
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#1445601 - 23/12/2017 13:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah well..... models seem confused but I gues as others have said it will all depend on where the low initiates. Not a bad explanation from Nitso on the ozcyclone chasers video update this morning about steering factors as well. Main thing is that she’s a pretty good environment once something gets going..... interesting

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#1445692 - 24/12/2017 22:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Port Hedland
It all seems likely that Port Hedland should get lots of rain

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#1445696 - 24/12/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
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Loc: Broome

Hopefully MM, they definitely need it down there and some up here as well.

Hopefully low gets going with a bit of circulation by tomorrow this time , if good which seems like on latest sat run , then game on for the forming of a moderate cyclone...models in some sort of agreement with that.

Conditions good for fairly rapid development with low shear and good SSTs.

Finding out the direction the system adopts is the next stage but may be factors falling into place soon as well.

Interesting to see how things look or line up come Boxing day..


BTW......... Xmas cheers everyone hope you have a good one.
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#1445732 - 25/12/2017 13:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Low 92S formed but still fairly indecisive as to movement and timing.
Has to work its way through the Timor Sea towards the Kimberley coast.

Interestingly a few models suggesting a Cat1 system forming and tracking along the periphery of north west Kimberley them moving south westwards.

Bringing lots of rain then finally going a bit further off the coast south of Broome and re intensifying off the coast before making landfall just south of Pt Hedland.

Variables all still in play though so just have to watch for the next couple of days to see how things eventuate.

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#1445779 - 25/12/2017 20:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I reckon go as far West as it can and recurve down through WA to give me some thunderstorms in Kalbarri for New Years. Let the real wet season start when I get back on the 8th Jan. haha
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#1445783 - 25/12/2017 20:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Yeah thought you might be hoping for that popeye.... happy Christmas!

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#1445800 - 25/12/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah you to Sepo. Big day in the sun. Pity the 899hPa CAT 5 is now looking like a 990hPa QLD bit of fluff. Its been jinxed. Will give it one last chance.
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#1445855 - 26/12/2017 13:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Azzad Offline
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#1445860 - 26/12/2017 13:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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BOM forecast tracking for a crossing between Sandfire and Pardoo late on Dec 28th Cat 1-2.

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#1445862 - 26/12/2017 13:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
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No thread for our first TC?

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#1446165 - 28/12/2017 19:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
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Loc: Cable Beach
Yep we moved up the road for a bit, with Hubbies work then we will be off to Hobart...Not sure when. Glad I got another cyclone before we leave. I do like them. Though the house in Hedland was better to experience it. We had no trees so the clean up was minimal.

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#1446167 - 28/12/2017 19:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kino]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 222
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Kino
No thread for our first TC?


Perhaps because Hilda did not live long.
Short lived TC can still do some impact. Eg Oswald in 2013, TC for not long, but exTC Storm impacts went a long way down east coast. I like to watch them until they run out of puff.

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#1446168 - 28/12/2017 19:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Flowin Offline
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And that was not in La Niña period!

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#1447366 - 05/01/2018 11:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
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Loc: Cable Beach
How much fun are the morning storms we are having at them moment!!! So Good!. I am enjoying the weather here so much more than Hedland. I like humidity it turns out.

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#1447411 - 05/01/2018 16:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ningergirl]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
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Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Ningergirl
I like humidity it turns out.

I can't understand why people don't like it. I suffer when it's dry.... Lol.
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#1447463 - 05/01/2018 18:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: cold@28]
Hailin Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2010
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Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
BOM has issued warning for Tropical Low way out to sea and moving west.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

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#1447614 - 06/01/2018 16:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Yep Hilin, TC Irvine Cat 1 way out West spinning around and moving away from the Cocos Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Saturday 6 January 2018
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Irving (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 12.6S
92.3E, that is 495 km west of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 13
kilometres per hour. The system is not expected to directly impact the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.
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#1447616 - 06/01/2018 16:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Almost out of range of BOM jurisdiction.

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#1447617 - 06/01/2018 16:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
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Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 133
Loc: Noonamah
Apparently Irving has wind shear of 30 kts. That should keep a lid on it.

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#1447622 - 06/01/2018 17:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
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Loc: Broome

Yes TB got some ridging to content with on its southern flank which should keep it going to the west but good SSTs will help Irvine intensify by Monday.
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#1447623 - 06/01/2018 17:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
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Loc: Cable Beach
Sooo.... What do we reckon for this other system to form up off the coast of the Kimberley? EC showing a similar run to Hilda?

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#1447625 - 06/01/2018 17:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Loc: Broome

New low forming by tomorrow night in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf or to the east of it and should track to the west then south west.

EC got it doing a Hilda and going off the coast just south of Broome .

Some models including Access R has it going further out to the West initially then steering influences to the south east with the presence of a trough from the south and a ridge in the inland .

If it comes off it will be a stronger TC than Hilda as longer to refuel off the Kimberley/Pilbara coast .

Track forecast at this stage may be parallel to the coast between Port Hedland and Onslow .

Early days yet, but next 3 days will be crucial to how this one develops and where it will end up tracking.
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#1447626 - 06/01/2018 17:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
What I think is that we are going to have 2 visits - Hilda and next Joyce. Sounds like 2 old girls from the CWA but I don't think they will be making pumpkin scones! smile Yeah seems to be looking more like a coast scraper.....

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#1447627 - 06/01/2018 17:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo those names aren't amazing that's for sure.
Maybe BOM need to update their name base. wink
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#1447641 - 06/01/2018 18:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
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Loc: Cable Beach
My Great Aunt was Hilda and my Grandmother Joyce...soo For that reason I am casting my vote for the EC modelling.

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#1447906 - 07/01/2018 21:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Interesting days ahead crew. Could be a big impact somewhere along the Pilbara coast. Models kind of have it initially wsw then more poleward and then returning wsw. Just where all those happen and when determines quite a lot. Realistically anywhere from Cape Leveque to Exmouth or even missing altogether
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#1447908 - 07/01/2018 21:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Im thinking a little slower to develop (as usual) and then that poleward period scruffing Broome up again before heading off down the coast.
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#1447926 - 07/01/2018 23:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah sounds logical popeye. Quite a few weakened / leaning trees that will add to clean up if we get near gales as well. Models seem to be scouring the coast, ( as opposed to hugging the coast), and at a higher intensity than Hilda.....


Edited by Sepo (07/01/2018 23:54)

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#1447927 - 08/01/2018 00:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Hopefully staying a little further off the coast as it comes past Broome, especially if it has had significant increase in intensity.
Models pretty much agreeing on a south westerly movement then more southerly .The timing with the southern trough and the approach of mid level ridge will be the deciders with the track .

Interesting times ahead, unfortunately be in Perth as of Tuesday so won't be on the ground for this one .
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#1448000 - 08/01/2018 18:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 873
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
BOM has issued Track Map and Advice for soon-to-be Joyce.

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#1448004 - 08/01/2018 18:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
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Loc: Broome

Well spotted Hailin.

At least it will be a bit further out from G.Point if it follows this track.

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#1448069 - 09/01/2018 10:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
This morning models are increasingly closer to coast and the southward crossing is edging up as a result. It will be whether it has enough distance and time off coast to reach cat 3 or just edges off and struggles to form. Interesting watching. Shire have just about cleaned up around Broome from Hilda, now Joyce!

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#1448080 - 09/01/2018 11:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo interesting to note Access R has it still going a bit further west and most other models going for a more southern movement.

The ridge if weakening next two days will definitely allow for southwards track .The influence of the trough to the south also a big player in the tracking .

Yesterday lot more models going for it to bomb out more to Cat 3 or more but now most happy to go with at the most Cat 2.
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#1448084 - 09/01/2018 11:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Latest BOM track hasn it edging closer to Broome and now making cat 3 at landfall east of Wallal. BOM seem certain of the ridge having little impact.... it seems they are splitting the difference between GFS and the Euro.....

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#1448088 - 09/01/2018 12:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Cable Beach
Just need this thing to get out on water, then the predictions will have a little more truth to them. But yes it is looking to be pretty similar to Hilda at this stage. I wonder if it will get its toes in the water north of us, or hug the coast in it's sisters path. Hubby is down in Hedland at the moment, due back tomorrow. Might be a tad windy, smile

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#1448092 - 09/01/2018 12:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South, 125.0 degrees East , 105 kilometres south southeast of Kuri Bay and 185 kilometres northeast of Derby .
Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low will move off the northwest Kimberley coast later today. The low is expected to strengthen over open water and may become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday. There is a significant risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting northern WA on Friday.


Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome, as early as Wednesday afternoon or evening. GALES may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs during Thursday and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland later on Thursday
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#1448093 - 09/01/2018 12:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Yes BOM going for 100kms west of Broome as a Cat 2 .....I guess that's a lot better than 10kms out Cat 1 no Cat 2 wink as was the case with Hilda.
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#1448112 - 09/01/2018 16:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Has anyone got the criteria for issuing Blue, yellow and red alerts? Seems like no one really has a clue up here.
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#1448117 - 09/01/2018 16:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Pops, you going to be home for this one?

Check out this link - it may help http://www.ses-wa.asn.au/node/1542

15-20 years ago it was different (in my memory anyway) it went something like Blue = damaging winds within 72hrs, Yellow 12-24hrs and Red was imminent. What does everyone else remember it as?

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#1448150 - 09/01/2018 18:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers Leelee. Yeah home yesterday. Getting a bit excited cause I missed the first one. Wait and see what eventuates with this one I guess. Probably wont even get offshore until James Prices Point like Hilda but she obviously put on a good show. I'm thinking a CAT 2 again for Bidgy. Bit of wind here no doubt.
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#1448173 - 09/01/2018 18:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah I'd be excited too! Devo we're missing out here and you guys get two in a row. Hilda was a very good show, though I do hope it's not too strong as it comes over Broome and Bidyadanga, the ground must be very soft by now. Reckon they'll take the shade sails down this time? lol.

Each BOM update is putting that path closer and closer to Broome.

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#1448210 - 09/01/2018 21:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Eighty Mile might get a lashing.
Hope not coming into too close to the caravan park, they have been hit many times before.

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#1448220 - 09/01/2018 23:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 952
Loc: Sth Hedland
I dont think it's such a clear cut senario just yet.
Thats my opinion anyway.


Edited by sswanss (09/01/2018 23:28)
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#1448223 - 09/01/2018 23:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Cable Beach
Yep would not surprise me if she ranps up and sets her sights on Port Hedland or further.

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#1448226 - 10/01/2018 01:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Cable Beach
Good night all. Reckon there is a fair chance this is going to go down Pilbara way.

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#1448228 - 10/01/2018 01:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
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Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 146
Loc: Karratha, WA
Agreed

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#1448229 - 10/01/2018 02:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think that its all guess work at the moment. Lets see when, how pronounced and how quickly that Southerly motion happens. It could even be a hint of SSE for all we know. ECO BEACH CAT 3 I reckon.
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#1448246 - 10/01/2018 09:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Should start to see a bit more symmetry as the layers and outflow get more organised as it nears the warm waters off the coast of Cape Leveque today.

Just a massive 1000km wide blob atm but won't take to fire up in the energy laden conditions it should experience soon with low wind sheer, high SSTs and strong humidity to feed on.

Interesting to see it develops in the next 24hours.
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#1448247 - 10/01/2018 09:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Agree with the possibility of SSE possible movement, just by looking at models and how the BOM track has moved east but by bit there is a hint of this, but with development now being pushed back a bit in time i reckon she will struggle to make CAT 3 before landfall - hoping anyway.

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#1448258 - 10/01/2018 10:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Any ideas why she’s been renamed 05S instead of 96S as she originally was?
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#1448267 - 10/01/2018 11:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Leelee Offline
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Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Any ideas why she’s been renamed 05S instead of 96S as she originally was?


I was just wondering the same thing?

SH962018 - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH962018

SH052018 - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH052018

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#1448271 - 10/01/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Latest track map has Cat 3 direct hit over Sandfire... NOT THE PEACOCKS!!! shocked shocked shocked

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#1448272 - 10/01/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.

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#1448273 - 10/01/2018 12:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kino]
opplevelse Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?
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#1448274 - 10/01/2018 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?


JTWC and BOM have different criteria for TC declaration. JTWC will call it a TC before BOM.

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#1448275 - 10/01/2018 12:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1616
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?


It has by JTWC - 05S (5th cyclone southern season)

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#1448276 - 10/01/2018 12:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions-1/frequently-asked-questions#name

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for several reasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances and cyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustained surface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is 10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centers for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecasts that extend to a period less than 120 hours. Finally, JTWC does not apply the same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence, the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designation assigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC will add the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropical cyclone number only after the WMO-designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If the RSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, as a placeholder, i.e. "TS 16P (SIXTEEN)."

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#1448280 - 10/01/2018 13:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Leelee]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Leelee
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions-1/frequently-asked-questions#name

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for several reasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances and cyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustained surface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is 10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centers for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecasts that extend to a period less than 120 hours. Finally, JTWC does not apply the same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence, the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designation assigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC will add the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropical cyclone number only after the WMO-designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If the RSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, as a placeholder, i.e. "TS 16P (SIXTEEN)."


I wish this forum had a like button! Thank you! Great bit of info.
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448282 - 10/01/2018 13:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 312
Loc: Karratha, WA
Haha no worries - I only copied and pasted.

I sometimes wish there was a like button too, but I think it would detract from the discussion on other threads within this forum. The lighter threads like this one would be sweet. Heavier threads like the Climate Driver discussion wouldn't work though.

On another note - this cyclone season and the last have been so much better with the new satellite that went up. Having 10 minute sat pics rather than hourly really lets you see the circulation and cloud development. I hope for the younger generation coming through having such visual aids encourages them to be interested in climate/weather observation.

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#1448292 - 10/01/2018 15:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome


Still tracking west at 10km/hr ...interesting to see when the more southerly swing going to take place ....
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448293 - 10/01/2018 15:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

A few variables definitely still in play with this system.

From Bom :

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 122.6 degrees East , 150 kilometres northwest of Derby and 175 kilometres north northeast of Broome .
Movement: west at 10 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low is now offshore from the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or during Thursday. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impact over the far western Kimberley and far eastern Pilbara late Thursday or Friday. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, and it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448298 - 10/01/2018 16:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
New BoM Track map is expected in 1.5 hrs, but looking at animated VIS sat I am wondering if the LLCC is actually a fair bit further north than the last positioning. By below I make it ~ 122E and 16S, but last BOM had it at 122.6E, 16.4S and last JTWC (#2) had it at 123.1E 17.0S.

Unfortunately most of what you can see below is high level cirrus from the Cb tops, and that may not be indicative of the LLCC location. There is no recent SAT passes for good MW coverage which would help considerably.

But given the low VShear, it cant be that far off the centre as indicated by the VIS image. IF it is closer to 122E, 16S, then that could change the guidance considerably.


Edited by opplevelse (10/01/2018 16:44)
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"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448320 - 10/01/2018 22:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
CraigA74 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1251
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
New advice out. Now she's out over warm open water should see her start to ramp up a bit. Interested to see when the southerly motion kicks in.... hopefully sooner rather than later. Used to be fun when I lived here but there's nothing worse than being stuck in camp when a cyclones around now haha


Edited by CraigA74 (10/01/2018 22:36)

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#1448329 - 11/01/2018 00:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3385
Loc: Broome

Going slightly more south now.
Can see it on the latest sat pic.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 195 kilometres north of Broome and 50 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1448330 - 11/01/2018 01:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: CraigA74]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: CraigA74
Interested to see when the southerly motion kicks in.... hopefully sooner rather than later.

That's the spirit Craig haha. Send it closer to me please. Hope you are well havn't seen you on here for ages. cheers
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1448331 - 11/01/2018 01:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Yep def southerly movement over last few hours. Good for lower intensity. JTWC had it at 16.1S (8pm), BoM at 16.2S (9pm), looks to be 16.6S or so now (10:30pm) based on Radar.
_________________________
"Science is a lot like sex ... sometimes something useful comes out, but that's not the reason we do it." - Richard Feynman

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#1448332 - 11/01/2018 01:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24942
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
please use the threat for this tropical low for further discussion

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...t_J#Post1448227

will reopen this thread in a few days after this system passes.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
December 2017 total - 40.0mm (130mm)
January 2018 total - 98.4mm (274mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 872.6mm (1122mm)

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#1449244 - 18/01/2018 20:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Lastes EC runs starting to spin up a big Pilbara basher in about a weeks time.

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#1449374 - 19/01/2018 20:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7794
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah they keep coming thick and fast this year. What a season so far. Hope it keeps up right through til April.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1449375 - 19/01/2018 20:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 348
Loc: Broome, WA
Later runs seem to be suggesting something similar to Hilda, Joyce path. It's funny this year how the models from a long way out suggest big systems heading west and maybe with a Pilbara / Gascoyne recurve but as they get closer they adapt to the ridging, or lack of, and suggest similar paths hugging coast.

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