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#1442006 - 22/11/2017 19:43 WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
May as well get this thread up and going or we might miss the first few TC's off the ranks. Looking positive for at least some development over the next week here in WA.
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#1442013 - 22/11/2017 21:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
According to gfs ensembles 95S INVEST is going to remain week and could go anywhere. This link gets updated so it could change.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/


Edited by Red Watch (22/11/2017 21:18)

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#1442067 - 23/11/2017 11:41 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Looks like it may ramp up in a few days time .Still has good feeding grounds happening to the north..
This may help it develop inflow and circulation but early days yet.

Development will depend what happens into early next week when the MJO ramps up a bit and favourable conditions may exist and give it even more of a chance for cyclogenesis.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442170 - 24/11/2017 00:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
SSW track forecast so far

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#1442275 - 24/11/2017 22:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Cori Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 79
Loc: South West
Hello, looking forward to this season, have a good feeling about it smile

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#1442319 - 25/11/2017 18:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
A low further north west 96s is supposed to merge with the closer low and form into a cyclone and cross the coast further south according to gfs.

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#1442365 - 26/11/2017 14:02 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
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Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Bom has it as a moderate chance on Monday and tuesday

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#1442368 - 26/11/2017 14:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

From BOM yesterday.
Looks a bit hopeful of a cyclone forming but it will become clearer in the next few days as it development continues.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:02 pm WST on Saturday 25 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 28 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A weak tropical low lies near 9.7S 109.5E, approximately 180 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to persist in this general area over the weekend. It's motion next week is uncertain but is largely determined on its development. It has a Low possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone from Sunday with the risk increasing from Monday where it is likely to be located over open water well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Sunday:
Low

Monday:
Moderate

Tuesday:
Moderate
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442446 - 27/11/2017 12:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:




Monday:
Low


Tuesday:
Moderate


Wednesday:
Moderate



A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.



Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Monday:
Very Low
Tuesday:
Very Low
Wednesday:
Low
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442448 - 27/11/2017 12:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

BOM cyclone outlook looks interesting for later this week.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:08 pm WST on Sunday 26 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Wednesday 29 November 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies north of the region near 9.4S 109.5E, approximately 200 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected to be slow moving, generally eastwards during Monday and Tuesday. It may develop further over the next few days in a generally favourable environment. It is likely to remain north of the region during Monday and Tuesday and may move southwards into the region on Wednesday but remain well north of the Australian Continent.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Low

Tuesday:Moderate

Wednesday:Moderate

A second tropical low lies north of the region near 6.3S 93.4E. It is expected to move southeast and develop over the next few days and may reach tropical cyclone intensity from Wednesday. It will likely remain north of the region during the next three days, however there is a slight chance it moves south it into the region on Wednesday.

Later in the week the system will move north of Christmas Island on Thursday or Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of another system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Monday:Very Low

Tuesday:Very Low

Wednesday:Low
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442490 - 27/11/2017 18:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

At this stage the models suggests it seems likely that the two tropical lows 95S and 96S will interact with other in the next few days .

What sort of low/trough/cyclone we end up with will depend on the influence they have on each other and the resultant formation afterwards.

95S which is a very small system compared to 96S is definitely in a better position as far as wind shear goes 10-15knts atm compared to 96S which is in a high vertical sheer environment.

Basically all up the air at the moment though until the aftermath of the interaction between these two systems is determined.
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#1442535 - 28/11/2017 01:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Offshore Emily Offline
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Registered: 12/12/2004
Posts: 148
Loc: Adelaide / 30km Nth Exmouth
Apparently we have a cyclone!!

Forecast No. 3 for Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA
Issue Time: 2100 Mon 27 Nov 2017 WST

Tropical Cyclone CEMPAKA was named as a Category 1 system at around 20:00 WST on Monday evening. The system is located just south of Java


Nothing listed on the BOM site as yet.

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#1442538 - 28/11/2017 07:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
JTWC lists it as a formation alert:

WTXS21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
065 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 109.7E TO 8.3S 111.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 109.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY
245NM SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261943Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A CURVED MASS OF CONVECTION SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LIKELY TURN POLEWARD THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN

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#1442571 - 28/11/2017 12:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Not sure if it is within the Australian Cyclone jurisdiction yet or because its in Indonesian they are onto it but I could be wrong.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442574 - 28/11/2017 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Summarising from JTWC things look very suitable for this system to come alive .

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 95S IS UNDER
A REGION OF FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-28 CELSIUS), SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442584 - 28/11/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Track map TC Cempaka which is in Indonesian jurisdiction if it gets below 10deg south then it gets handballed to BOM but the name stays the same .


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442585 - 28/11/2017 15:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442604 - 28/11/2017 19:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 933
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:58 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 1:00 pm CXT near 8.2S 98.8E, that is 800 km west
northwest of Christmas Island and slow moving.
The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday as
a Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally
conditions are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system is
expected to turn towards the southeast as it continues to intensify.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 8:00 am CXT.

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#1442610 - 28/11/2017 20:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy

Think 96S is more likely to have an impact on the OZ coast if it continues to develop.

96S is a lot bigger system and if it continues steering towards the SE the wind shear will be a lot more favourable for this system's evolution into a stronger cyclone.

Yea 95s is very week and gets absorbed by 96s which heads towards the coast as a weak cyclone or an intense low according to GFS and EC. GFS has the two doing the Fujiwara effect before forming into one cyclone.

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#1442627 - 28/11/2017 22:16 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Yep RW it will be interesting to see what happens if the two lows /TCs get close and what the after effect is going to be ....

There is a few scenarios but 96S because of its potential and size will probably be the dominant system and absorb whats left of TC Cempaka if they get to pair off...

If 96S wins out and stays intense with favorable wind shear and warmer waters then its game on ...I reckon.

The south Pilbara will get some action out of it, even if by the time it gets near it could be dying right off especially if it goes to far south and hits those cooler SSTs.

Early days though ..interesting few days ahead ..me thinks.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442684 - 29/11/2017 12:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:01 pm WST on Tuesday 28 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 1 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


Tropical Cyclone Cempaka was recently located north of the region near 8.7S 111.5E, approximately 40 kilometres south of Java, Indonesia. The system is expected move slowly southeast before taking a more south to southwesterly track later on Wednesday. Its likely to enter the Western Region on Wednesday evening and may still be at cyclone intensity whilst continuing in a south to southwesterly motion towards open waters well north of the Australian Continent.

Towards the end of the week, this system may interact with another tropical low (03U) that is expected to approach from the northwest (see system details below). It's not yet clear how these systems will affect one another and its not impossible that the two systems merge into one. Regardless of the outcome, there remains a High likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region from Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:High
Friday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442686 - 29/11/2017 12:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome
From BoM 28/11/17


A second tropical low (03U lies north of the region near 7.6S 98.6E. It is expected to move generally southeast during the next few days, and it may develop as it does so, possibly reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday. Its likely to enter the Western Region, to the south of Java on Friday.

From Thursday the system may move close to Christmas Island leading to a period of gusty winds, increased shower and thunderstorm activity and rough seas.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:
High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442688 - 29/11/2017 12:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 8.6 degrees South, 101.0 degrees East , 555 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island .
Movement: east at 13 kilometres per hour .

Hazards:
The system is expected to pass to the north of Christmas Island on Thursday as a Tropical Low. While gales are not expected at Christmas Island, squally conditions and heavy rain are likely over the next few days. During Friday the system is expected to turn towards the southeast and intensify into a tropical cyclone




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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442690 - 29/11/2017 12:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Looks like 96S may just sneak into BOM jurisdiction and be the first TC for this year...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442775 - 29/11/2017 20:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Both lows seem to be in a broad trough stretching right accross to East Timor by looking at https://www.windy.com

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#1442781 - 29/11/2017 20:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Looks like 96S may just sneak into BOM jurisdiction and be the first TC for this year...

Yea it has to go below 10 degrees south and 95s is now Ex-TC CEMPAKA according to BMKG so if 96s forms in our area we should get to name it.

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#1442812 - 30/11/2017 00:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yes RW first one if all goes well . smile

Equatorial trough should help steer the low to the SE which will give it its best chance to intensify and come our way.

Mid level ridge parked over Kimberley and Top End if strong enough is going to steer it southwards how much all depends on a couple of other factors manifesting themselves over the next few days.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442813 - 30/11/2017 00:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Windy got this by Sunday morning Cat 1-2 still quite a ways off the coast.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1442870 - 30/11/2017 12:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
It is forecast to weaken rapidly south of the 20 degree mark is it from increasing wind shear as well as cooler sst.

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#1442889 - 30/11/2017 13:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

And here we have it first TC for the season TC Dahlia..

Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 10:02 pm WST on Wednesday 29 November 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 2 December 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia was located near 8.4S 101.5E approximately 530 kilometres west northwest of Christmas Island. It is expected to move generally east to southeast over the next couple of days and it is likely to enter the Western Region to the south of Java on Friday. The system is likely to move southward over the weekend and slowly intestify.

Tropical Cyclone Dahlia is expected to pass Christmas Island to the north leading to squally conditions, heavy rainfall and rough seas over the next few days. Refer to the latest tropical cyclone information for further details [www.bom.go.au/wa/warnings].

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:High

Friday:High

Saturday:High
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1442892 - 30/11/2017 13:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445194 - 19/12/2017 14:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25255
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
WA looking more and more likely to see a coastal crossing after xmas. Models all gradually coming into alignment.
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March 2018 total - 296mm (194mm)
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#1445247 - 19/12/2017 17:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
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Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Mick, yep GFS is still keen on a Kimberley crossing. EC and BOM not so much. At least it makes for an interesting week or so, watching and waiting to see if anything will come of it. Not a hell of a lot of model agreement on direction etc, other than the fact that there is something brewing.

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#1445309 - 20/12/2017 00:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
If latest GFS comes off it will be a fair bit of weather for West Kimberley / Pilbara..... 😳

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#1445312 - 20/12/2017 02:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
zobubble Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 62
Loc: Broome, WA
Yay!

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#1445353 - 20/12/2017 11:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yep what I'm reading on the current predictions , models are in agreement on a few things.
One is that a low or two are going to form in the next couple of days in the Timor Sea or Banda Sea and head in a South Westerly direction towards OZ.

Lots of variables after that though with ridges and steering mechanisms etc. affecting the outcome of intensity and direction .

Clearer picture probably going to emerge when the low/lows actually form because basically the main factor for us anyway atm is where and how far to the west they will develop into a low .

Watch this space .... wink
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445495 - 21/12/2017 20:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
After today’s model runs... Mmmmm 🤔

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#1445497 - 21/12/2017 20:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
ARGHH. I hope that EC doesn't happen Sepo. In Perth for 3 weeks. Typical always happens when I am away. I guess we need to wait until something actually initiates until we can take it all seriously. Interesting days ahead no doubt. Will be watching carefully. Didn't book a return flight home so I could be flexible in heading back if anything is nearby.
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#1445504 - 21/12/2017 21:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Interesting times! BOM wanting Dampier and the others keen on Broome - Pardoo.

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#1445505 - 21/12/2017 21:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Reckon theres a 50/50 chance of any TC coming this way atm but early days ..

But don't worry Pops we can look after your beer fridge for you if you not around... wink wink

Going down to Perth 8th Jan for 4 weeks myself so may miss some of the action.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1445512 - 21/12/2017 23:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Azzad Offline
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Registered: 22/12/2013
Posts: 107
Loc: Karratha
Yeah hopefully Rain in Karratha soon, sick of the dust!
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#1445560 - 22/12/2017 15:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Not much has changed with the models recently and still lots of variables to consider in the next couple of days.
One new player into the scenario is a ridge forming just south of New Guinea in a couple of days and is going to have a direct influence on the Southerly tracking of the low and areas of convergence.

GFS got Cat 3 TC hitting Broome area about 27th Dec but UK model sending it crossing just south of Port Hedland.

In the next couple of days there is going to be a clearer picture as to how these 2 areas of convergence up near Timor relate to each other and then the models should come to more of an agreement as to whats going to happen.

The one thing that is sure is that once the low/lows get near the Kimberley coast, there will be a ridge that will be parked across central Australia and that will be the main steering influence and drive anything to the north east towards the Kimberley /Pilbara Coast.
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#1445601 - 23/12/2017 13:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah well..... models seem confused but I gues as others have said it will all depend on where the low initiates. Not a bad explanation from Nitso on the ozcyclone chasers video update this morning about steering factors as well. Main thing is that she’s a pretty good environment once something gets going..... interesting

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#1445692 - 24/12/2017 22:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Port Hedland
It all seems likely that Port Hedland should get lots of rain

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#1445696 - 24/12/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Hopefully MM, they definitely need it down there and some up here as well.

Hopefully low gets going with a bit of circulation by tomorrow this time , if good which seems like on latest sat run , then game on for the forming of a moderate cyclone...models in some sort of agreement with that.

Conditions good for fairly rapid development with low shear and good SSTs.

Finding out the direction the system adopts is the next stage but may be factors falling into place soon as well.

Interesting to see how things look or line up come Boxing day..


BTW......... Xmas cheers everyone hope you have a good one.
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#1445732 - 25/12/2017 13:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome
Low 92S formed but still fairly indecisive as to movement and timing.
Has to work its way through the Timor Sea towards the Kimberley coast.

Interestingly a few models suggesting a Cat1 system forming and tracking along the periphery of north west Kimberley them moving south westwards.

Bringing lots of rain then finally going a bit further off the coast south of Broome and re intensifying off the coast before making landfall just south of Pt Hedland.

Variables all still in play though so just have to watch for the next couple of days to see how things eventuate.

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#1445779 - 25/12/2017 20:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I reckon go as far West as it can and recurve down through WA to give me some thunderstorms in Kalbarri for New Years. Let the real wet season start when I get back on the 8th Jan. haha
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#1445783 - 25/12/2017 20:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
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Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah thought you might be hoping for that popeye.... happy Christmas!

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#1445800 - 25/12/2017 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah you to Sepo. Big day in the sun. Pity the 899hPa CAT 5 is now looking like a 990hPa QLD bit of fluff. Its been jinxed. Will give it one last chance.
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#1445855 - 26/12/2017 13:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Azzad Offline
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#1445860 - 26/12/2017 13:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

BOM forecast tracking for a crossing between Sandfire and Pardoo late on Dec 28th Cat 1-2.

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#1445862 - 26/12/2017 13:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No thread for our first TC?

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#1446165 - 28/12/2017 19:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yep we moved up the road for a bit, with Hubbies work then we will be off to Hobart...Not sure when. Glad I got another cyclone before we leave. I do like them. Though the house in Hedland was better to experience it. We had no trees so the clean up was minimal.

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#1446167 - 28/12/2017 19:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kino]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 398
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Kino
No thread for our first TC?


Perhaps because Hilda did not live long.
Short lived TC can still do some impact. Eg Oswald in 2013, TC for not long, but exTC Storm impacts went a long way down east coast. I like to watch them until they run out of puff.

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#1446168 - 28/12/2017 19:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Flowin Offline
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Registered: 15/10/2017
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Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
And that was not in La Niña period!

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#1447366 - 05/01/2018 11:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
How much fun are the morning storms we are having at them moment!!! So Good!. I am enjoying the weather here so much more than Hedland. I like humidity it turns out.

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#1447411 - 05/01/2018 16:25 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Ningergirl]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2376
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Ningergirl
I like humidity it turns out.

I can't understand why people don't like it. I suffer when it's dry.... Lol.

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#1447463 - 05/01/2018 18:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: cold@28]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 933
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
BOM has issued warning for Tropical Low way out to sea and moving west.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

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#1447614 - 06/01/2018 16:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yep Hilin, TC Irvine Cat 1 way out West spinning around and moving away from the Cocos Islands.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Saturday 6 January 2018
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

Tropical Cyclone Irving (Category 1) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 12.6S
92.3E, that is 495 km west of Cocos Island and moving west southwest at 13
kilometres per hour. The system is not expected to directly impact the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands.
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#1447616 - 06/01/2018 16:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
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Loc: Broome

Almost out of range of BOM jurisdiction.

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#1447617 - 06/01/2018 16:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 139
Loc: Noonamah
Apparently Irving has wind shear of 30 kts. That should keep a lid on it.

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#1447622 - 06/01/2018 17:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yes TB got some ridging to content with on its southern flank which should keep it going to the west but good SSTs will help Irvine intensify by Monday.
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#1447623 - 06/01/2018 17:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Sooo.... What do we reckon for this other system to form up off the coast of the Kimberley? EC showing a similar run to Hilda?

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#1447625 - 06/01/2018 17:22 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

New low forming by tomorrow night in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf or to the east of it and should track to the west then south west.

EC got it doing a Hilda and going off the coast just south of Broome .

Some models including Access R has it going further out to the West initially then steering influences to the south east with the presence of a trough from the south and a ridge in the inland .

If it comes off it will be a stronger TC than Hilda as longer to refuel off the Kimberley/Pilbara coast .

Track forecast at this stage may be parallel to the coast between Port Hedland and Onslow .

Early days yet, but next 3 days will be crucial to how this one develops and where it will end up tracking.
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#1447626 - 06/01/2018 17:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
What I think is that we are going to have 2 visits - Hilda and next Joyce. Sounds like 2 old girls from the CWA but I don't think they will be making pumpkin scones! smile Yeah seems to be looking more like a coast scraper.....

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#1447627 - 06/01/2018 17:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo those names aren't amazing that's for sure.
Maybe BOM need to update their name base. wink
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#1447641 - 06/01/2018 18:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
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Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
My Great Aunt was Hilda and my Grandmother Joyce...soo For that reason I am casting my vote for the EC modelling.

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#1447906 - 07/01/2018 21:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Interesting days ahead crew. Could be a big impact somewhere along the Pilbara coast. Models kind of have it initially wsw then more poleward and then returning wsw. Just where all those happen and when determines quite a lot. Realistically anywhere from Cape Leveque to Exmouth or even missing altogether
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#1447908 - 07/01/2018 21:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Im thinking a little slower to develop (as usual) and then that poleward period scruffing Broome up again before heading off down the coast.
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#1447926 - 07/01/2018 23:52 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah sounds logical popeye. Quite a few weakened / leaning trees that will add to clean up if we get near gales as well. Models seem to be scouring the coast, ( as opposed to hugging the coast), and at a higher intensity than Hilda.....


Edited by Sepo (07/01/2018 23:54)

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#1447927 - 08/01/2018 00:06 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Hopefully staying a little further off the coast as it comes past Broome, especially if it has had significant increase in intensity.
Models pretty much agreeing on a south westerly movement then more southerly .The timing with the southern trough and the approach of mid level ridge will be the deciders with the track .

Interesting times ahead, unfortunately be in Perth as of Tuesday so won't be on the ground for this one .
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#1448000 - 08/01/2018 18:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: desieboy]
Hailin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/12/2010
Posts: 933
Loc: Moranbah/Glenella
BOM has issued Track Map and Advice for soon-to-be Joyce.

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#1448004 - 08/01/2018 18:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Well spotted Hailin.

At least it will be a bit further out from G.Point if it follows this track.

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#1448069 - 09/01/2018 10:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
This morning models are increasingly closer to coast and the southward crossing is edging up as a result. It will be whether it has enough distance and time off coast to reach cat 3 or just edges off and struggles to form. Interesting watching. Shire have just about cleaned up around Broome from Hilda, now Joyce!

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#1448080 - 09/01/2018 11:30 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yes Sepo interesting to note Access R has it still going a bit further west and most other models going for a more southern movement.

The ridge if weakening next two days will definitely allow for southwards track .The influence of the trough to the south also a big player in the tracking .

Yesterday lot more models going for it to bomb out more to Cat 3 or more but now most happy to go with at the most Cat 2.
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#1448084 - 09/01/2018 11:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Latest BOM track hasn it edging closer to Broome and now making cat 3 at landfall east of Wallal. BOM seem certain of the ridge having little impact.... it seems they are splitting the difference between GFS and the Euro.....

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#1448088 - 09/01/2018 12:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Just need this thing to get out on water, then the predictions will have a little more truth to them. But yes it is looking to be pretty similar to Hilda at this stage. I wonder if it will get its toes in the water north of us, or hug the coast in it's sisters path. Hubby is down in Hedland at the moment, due back tomorrow. Might be a tad windy, smile

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#1448092 - 09/01/2018 12:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South, 125.0 degrees East , 105 kilometres south southeast of Kuri Bay and 185 kilometres northeast of Derby .
Movement: west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low will move off the northwest Kimberley coast later today. The low is expected to strengthen over open water and may become a tropical cyclone on Wednesday or Thursday. There is a significant risk of a severe tropical cyclone impacting northern WA on Friday.


Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga, including Broome, as early as Wednesday afternoon or evening. GALES may extend to areas between Bidyadanga and Wallal Downs during Thursday and to areas between Wallal Downs and Port Hedland later on Thursday
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#1448093 - 09/01/2018 12:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yes BOM going for 100kms west of Broome as a Cat 2 .....I guess that's a lot better than 10kms out Cat 1 no Cat 2 wink as was the case with Hilda.
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#1448112 - 09/01/2018 16:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Has anyone got the criteria for issuing Blue, yellow and red alerts? Seems like no one really has a clue up here.
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#1448117 - 09/01/2018 16:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey Pops, you going to be home for this one?

Check out this link - it may help http://www.ses-wa.asn.au/node/1542

15-20 years ago it was different (in my memory anyway) it went something like Blue = damaging winds within 72hrs, Yellow 12-24hrs and Red was imminent. What does everyone else remember it as?

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#1448150 - 09/01/2018 18:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers Leelee. Yeah home yesterday. Getting a bit excited cause I missed the first one. Wait and see what eventuates with this one I guess. Probably wont even get offshore until James Prices Point like Hilda but she obviously put on a good show. I'm thinking a CAT 2 again for Bidgy. Bit of wind here no doubt.
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#1448173 - 09/01/2018 18:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Yeah I'd be excited too! Devo we're missing out here and you guys get two in a row. Hilda was a very good show, though I do hope it's not too strong as it comes over Broome and Bidyadanga, the ground must be very soft by now. Reckon they'll take the shade sails down this time? lol.

Each BOM update is putting that path closer and closer to Broome.

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#1448210 - 09/01/2018 21:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Eighty Mile might get a lashing.
Hope not coming into too close to the caravan park, they have been hit many times before.

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#1448220 - 09/01/2018 23:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 952
Loc: Sth Hedland
I dont think it's such a clear cut senario just yet.
Thats my opinion anyway.


Edited by sswanss (09/01/2018 23:28)
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#1448223 - 09/01/2018 23:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Yep would not surprise me if she ranps up and sets her sights on Port Hedland or further.

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#1448226 - 10/01/2018 01:31 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Good night all. Reckon there is a fair chance this is going to go down Pilbara way.

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#1448228 - 10/01/2018 01:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
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Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Agreed

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#1448229 - 10/01/2018 02:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I think that its all guess work at the moment. Lets see when, how pronounced and how quickly that Southerly motion happens. It could even be a hint of SSE for all we know. ECO BEACH CAT 3 I reckon.
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#1448246 - 10/01/2018 09:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Should start to see a bit more symmetry as the layers and outflow get more organised as it nears the warm waters off the coast of Cape Leveque today.

Just a massive 1000km wide blob atm but won't take to fire up in the energy laden conditions it should experience soon with low wind sheer, high SSTs and strong humidity to feed on.

Interesting to see it develops in the next 24hours.
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#1448247 - 10/01/2018 09:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Agree with the possibility of SSE possible movement, just by looking at models and how the BOM track has moved east but by bit there is a hint of this, but with development now being pushed back a bit in time i reckon she will struggle to make CAT 3 before landfall - hoping anyway.

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#1448258 - 10/01/2018 10:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Any ideas why she’s been renamed 05S instead of 96S as she originally was?
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#1448267 - 10/01/2018 11:56 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Any ideas why she’s been renamed 05S instead of 96S as she originally was?


I was just wondering the same thing?

SH962018 - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH962018

SH052018 - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH052018

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#1448271 - 10/01/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Latest track map has Cat 3 direct hit over Sandfire... NOT THE PEACOCKS!!! shocked shocked shocked

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#1448272 - 10/01/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1899
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.

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#1448273 - 10/01/2018 12:24 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Kino]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?
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#1448274 - 10/01/2018 12:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?


JTWC and BOM have different criteria for TC declaration. JTWC will call it a TC before BOM.

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#1448275 - 10/01/2018 12:35 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: opplevelse]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1899
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: opplevelse
Originally Posted By: Kino
Aren't suss areas called 96s but confirmed systems then re-named to the numerical number for cyclones for the Season? So this will be the 5th cyclone named for the season.
But it hasn't been named yet?


It has by JTWC - 05S (5th cyclone southern season)

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#1448276 - 10/01/2018 12:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
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Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions-1/frequently-asked-questions#name

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for several reasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances and cyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustained surface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is 10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centers for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecasts that extend to a period less than 120 hours. Finally, JTWC does not apply the same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence, the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designation assigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC will add the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropical cyclone number only after the WMO-designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If the RSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, as a placeholder, i.e. "TS 16P (SIXTEEN)."

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#1448280 - 10/01/2018 13:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Leelee]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Originally Posted By: Leelee
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions-1/frequently-asked-questions#name

Q: How are JTWC forecasts different than forecasts issued by tropical cyclone warning centers (TCWCs) of other countries?

A: JTWC and RSMC/TCWC tropical cyclone warnings may differ for several reasons. One difference is the measurement of maximum sustained surface winds. JTWC reports the maximum sustained surface winds in tropical disturbances and cyclones in terms of 1-minute mean wind speed, as required by the U.S. National Hurricane Operations Plan. Other nations, however, report maximum sustained surface winds averaged over a different time interval, which in many cases is 10-minutes. The difference generally means that JTWC will report higher maximum sustained surface wind speeds than non-U.S tropical cyclone forecasting centers for the same cyclone. Another difference is that JTWC will issue forecasts out to 120 hours as required by U.S. DoD. Several TCWCs will transmit forecasts that extend to a period less than 120 hours. Finally, JTWC does not apply the same tropical cyclone numbering scheme used by the regional centers. Hence, the cyclone number assigned by JTWC may not match the numerical designation assigned to the same cyclone by the responsible RSMC/TCWC.

Q: How are tropical cyclones named?

A: JTWC does not name tropical cyclones. JTWC uses the names determined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical Cyclone Program. JTWC will add the tropical cyclone name in parentheses after the JTWC-designated tropical cyclone number only after the WMO-designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) names a cyclone. If the RSMC/TCWC has not yet named a cyclone, JTWC uses its TC number, spelled out, as a placeholder, i.e. "TS 16P (SIXTEEN)."


I wish this forum had a like button! Thank you! Great bit of info.
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#1448282 - 10/01/2018 13:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Haha no worries - I only copied and pasted.

I sometimes wish there was a like button too, but I think it would detract from the discussion on other threads within this forum. The lighter threads like this one would be sweet. Heavier threads like the Climate Driver discussion wouldn't work though.

On another note - this cyclone season and the last have been so much better with the new satellite that went up. Having 10 minute sat pics rather than hourly really lets you see the circulation and cloud development. I hope for the younger generation coming through having such visual aids encourages them to be interested in climate/weather observation.

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#1448292 - 10/01/2018 15:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Still tracking west at 10km/hr ...interesting to see when the more southerly swing going to take place ....
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#1448293 - 10/01/2018 15:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

A few variables definitely still in play with this system.

From Bom :

Details of Tropical Low at 11:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.4 degrees South, 122.6 degrees East , 150 kilometres northwest of Derby and 175 kilometres north northeast of Broome .
Movement: west at 10 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low is now offshore from the west Kimberley coast and may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or during Thursday. There is a risk of a severe tropical cyclone impact over the far western Kimberley and far eastern Pilbara late Thursday or Friday. There is some uncertainty in the forecast track, and it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday.
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#1448298 - 10/01/2018 16:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
New BoM Track map is expected in 1.5 hrs, but looking at animated VIS sat I am wondering if the LLCC is actually a fair bit further north than the last positioning. By below I make it ~ 122E and 16S, but last BOM had it at 122.6E, 16.4S and last JTWC (#2) had it at 123.1E 17.0S.

Unfortunately most of what you can see below is high level cirrus from the Cb tops, and that may not be indicative of the LLCC location. There is no recent SAT passes for good MW coverage which would help considerably.

But given the low VShear, it cant be that far off the centre as indicated by the VIS image. IF it is closer to 122E, 16S, then that could change the guidance considerably.


Edited by opplevelse (10/01/2018 16:44)
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#1448320 - 10/01/2018 22:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
CraigA74 Offline
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Registered: 27/03/2007
Posts: 1251
Loc: Diamond Valley Qld
New advice out. Now she's out over warm open water should see her start to ramp up a bit. Interested to see when the southerly motion kicks in.... hopefully sooner rather than later. Used to be fun when I lived here but there's nothing worse than being stuck in camp when a cyclones around now haha


Edited by CraigA74 (10/01/2018 22:36)

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#1448329 - 11/01/2018 00:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Going slightly more south now.
Can see it on the latest sat pic.

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South, 122.5 degrees East , 195 kilometres north of Broome and 50 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque .
Movement: west southwest at 6 kilometres per hour .

The uncertainty in the forecast track means that it is still possible the system could impact coastal parts of the central and western Pilbara during Friday and Saturday
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#1448330 - 11/01/2018 01:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: CraigA74]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: CraigA74
Interested to see when the southerly motion kicks in.... hopefully sooner rather than later.

That's the spirit Craig haha. Send it closer to me please. Hope you are well havn't seen you on here for ages. cheers
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#1448331 - 11/01/2018 01:37 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
opplevelse Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/08/2006
Posts: 728
Loc: Christiania, slightly east of ...
Yep def southerly movement over last few hours. Good for lower intensity. JTWC had it at 16.1S (8pm), BoM at 16.2S (9pm), looks to be 16.6S or so now (10:30pm) based on Radar.
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#1448332 - 11/01/2018 01:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25255
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
please use the threat for this tropical low for further discussion

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...t_J#Post1448227

will reopen this thread in a few days after this system passes.
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#1449244 - 18/01/2018 20:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Lastes EC runs starting to spin up a big Pilbara basher in about a weeks time.

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#1449374 - 19/01/2018 20:28 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah they keep coming thick and fast this year. What a season so far. Hope it keeps up right through til April.
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#1449375 - 19/01/2018 20:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Later runs seem to be suggesting something similar to Hilda, Joyce path. It's funny this year how the models from a long way out suggest big systems heading west and maybe with a Pilbara / Gascoyne recurve but as they get closer they adapt to the ridging, or lack of, and suggest similar paths hugging coast.

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#1449797 - 23/01/2018 14:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
StevefromSurfers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 294
Loc: Surfers Paradise
Thats a real nasty one for Port Hedland which GFS are forecasting for next Tuesday. 897 hPa, 200km/h winds and a direct hit. Hope that changes for the locals sake.



Edited by StevefromSurfers (23/01/2018 14:16)

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#1449812 - 23/01/2018 15:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12943
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
GFS has dropped that already.
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#1449873 - 23/01/2018 21:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Geez it's humid in K-Town right now!

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#1450086 - 25/01/2018 14:20 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
BIG rain dumping LOW heading WA's way over the weekend. Should be a wet one. I wonder if it can manage to sneak its toes offshore and gain TC status. Fun days a head, mould, mozzies, humidity so much to look forward to haha.
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#1450122 - 25/01/2018 18:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1229
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
a quick squiz at WA on the EC model on the WZ website. I'm thinking I'm seeing the EC model ramping up a substantial low over land
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#1450281 - 26/01/2018 17:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
How good does this sound from the Western Region cyclone outlook from BOM.
"A tropical low lies well inland over the west the Northern Territory, about 230
km east southeast of Kununurra. It is forecast to move slowly west or southwest
over the next few days and should move into the Kimberley on Saturday. It
should remain over land for at least the next few days, and so it is unlikely
to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected to develop into a
deep monsoon low by Sunday, and as a result damaging winds and heavy rain will
be possible over parts of the Kimberley. Gales and heavy surf conditions may
develop along the north and northwest Kimberley coast on Sunday. Severe Weather
Warnings will be issued for this system as required.
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#1450680 - 29/01/2018 10:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Nice banding starting to be picked up by radar in the Low this morning, great squalls as well. Can she deepen more and just drift off the coast for a bit?

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#1450705 - 29/01/2018 13:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yes Sepo was a pretty exciting night once that first squall hit. 40+knts and some great falls. Might hang around for a bit hopefully.
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#1450724 - 29/01/2018 15:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Enjoy guys, Broome getting all the action this year!

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#1450810 - 29/01/2018 22:26 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Hi people.For the the last four days in Darwin we have been copping 100 to 200 mm falls plus and up to 100 kmh gusts .Lots of trees down ,no structural damage but equivalent to a cat one type of scene .Even if this low doesn't eventuate into much it has still made for a belated start for the Darwin wet season .Maybe in the wrong post but nothing has started in the NT forum yet and looks like it's gonna impact the WA crew from now on.

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#1450811 - 29/01/2018 22:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah Darwindix been watching the NT radar and online stuff. Looks mad. Its going spastic here in Broome right now. over 300mm for this event and its bucketing down. 30-40-50knts bloody spectacular to see the amount of rain. 130mm+ since 9am and no let up.
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#1450813 - 29/01/2018 23:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Agree guys this is quite an event. Sustained gales I reckon now around Broome. TC Hilda was a bit more intense for about an hour or so as she headed south but this is just constant with no let up and the rain is phenomenal. A lot of trees weakened by Hilda and Joyce are going to be down after this. Including my nice shade frangipani that went down about an hour ago.

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#1450829 - 30/01/2018 04:53 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
325mm and still climbing 520mm for the event to date (4 days). Been an interesting night for sure. Amazing wind gusts with such heavy rain for so long.
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#1450847 - 30/01/2018 09:40 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1770
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Wow, A fair bit of action up there .Rain and wind .I would be excited if i got a shower of rain here lol.
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#1450850 - 30/01/2018 10:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Leelee Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/11/2012
Posts: 319
Loc: Karratha, WA
Wow guys, 403mm and counting just for the last 24hrs in Broome. Insane. How's Chinatown holding up? How are you guys holding up?

We had a 220mm night last Feb in Karratha and the water was lapping at the laundry door. I know you're built for it but surely 400mm is pushing things?

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#1450975 - 30/01/2018 23:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 552
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Guys updates how are things pics reports anything

EPIC system and near record rain what a WEt you guys in Broome are having
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#1450981 - 31/01/2018 00:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Pretty good drainage in the town really so whole flooded roads on TV look impressive they act like storm water drains and then flow into a series of canals around town that eventually lead to Roebuck bay, which is looking pretty brown / red today with the runoff. In old Broome there are some large trees down and generally around the whole town area a lot of Mahogany trees down, don’t know why they planted them here. Highways north and south are closed which means no road trains can get into town with supplies so we will see how we go with that. TC Hilda back in late December certainly had some stronger gusts but gales lasted a lot shorter time. We had gales here for pretty much 18 hours. Quite a few trees that were weakened by previous TC’s have come down plus a lot of smaller stuff. Amount of rain seems to have been main problem with leaking roofs, some electrical damage closing some schools etc.

Its the wet so you sort of expect a bit of rain and of course cyclone / low risk so in the end it’s nice to turn off the aircon for a couple of days and be glad there was nothing destructive....

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#1450990 - 31/01/2018 08:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2376
Loc: Chillagoe
Thanks for that update Sepo. Great to get a first hand report.

Reminds me of arriving in Darwin a few years ago to several days under the low that preceded Cyclone George. Days of heavy rain, and the house leaked all along one side between the slab and the wall.

I used to go up there for the Wet Season...


Edited by cold@28 (31/01/2018 08:39)

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#1451135 - 01/02/2018 13:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Just heard a report that the rig tender boat anchored off Cable Beach recorded consistent 73-74knt (138kms/hr) winds from the recent Tropical LOW. Amazing wind gusts and probably explains some of the damage especially on the Cable Beach side of town. The Port weather station stopped working early at 8:30pm with gusts 58knts/107kms/hr so considering it got a lot stronger later explains the higher gusts. Airport winds were a lot less but maybe friction over land reduced it or a good spray of WD40 might be needed for future. Amazing system.

Highway North had some amazing flows down the Logue River 130kms inland. Road surface torn up and deep cuttings into lanes. Lead ups to Bridges have foot deep torn up/de-surfaced bitumen.
Highway South on Roebuck plains is metre deep in water for a long way. White sign post reflectors are under so the road is not visible so its closed aswell. Gnarly system. Still amazed by it. Bring on the next one!!
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#1451140 - 01/02/2018 13:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
If you are on facebook check out ABC KIMBERLEY page. Some amazing video and aerial shots coming out now. https://www.facebook.com/ABCKimberley/
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#1451224 - 01/02/2018 22:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
That makes a lot of sense based on the damage around town, as you say Popeye, interesting that the fact it wasn’t a cyclone caught a lot of people off guard and there’s a bit of finger pointing going on... one issue is that they need to consider opening the evacuation centre when based on severity of weather not just on yellow alert, I.e. when there’s a cyclone. I think though generally it will be a wake up call for locals, at least for a couple of years 😀, to trim trees and take good notice of severe weather warnings even if it’s ‘just a low’. The old scoff that I’ve heard since arriving here 10 years ago that “nothing ever hits Broome - everything goes past down to the Pilbara” should also be forgotten based on this wet. Last point - I know it wasn’t a cyclone but due to the convection and strongest winds being away from the centre and for Broome just stalling there and hammering us for many hours, the effects / processes were the same. Maybe we should adopt the US terminology of Tropical Storm. At least it will get away from the ‘just a low’ attitude....

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#1451667 - 05/02/2018 12:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Another week, another Low on the horizon..... for Northwest WA anyway wink

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#1452035 - 09/02/2018 19:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah Sepo, EC is showing an eagerness to bring it on home like the others this season. Maybe a repeat big rainfall dumper and bit of a stiff breeze on the cards again. Hope so.
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#1452037 - 09/02/2018 19:09 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
We might need to rename the entire section of the weatherzone forums to Broome's Tropical Cyclones and Lows and that includes the Qld threads aswell. haha
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#1452044 - 09/02/2018 19:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3040
Loc: Buderim
No we'll keep one Qld thread open for model runs at 12-14 days.

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#1452045 - 09/02/2018 19:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
😂

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#1452084 - 10/02/2018 09:48 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
haha sounds good Mike
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#1452330 - 12/02/2018 13:59 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
EC and GFS now putting quite a nasty TC onto the Coast down the Pilbara way. Could be a wet passage as it moves offshore of Broome. Will give it some time though just incase it decides to follow the well worn track this season and dropping down through here.
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#1452340 - 12/02/2018 15:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Looks like the Pilbara at the moment... glad for it to slide by looking at modelled intensity....

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#1452343 - 12/02/2018 16:05 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Sepo]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 35
Loc: Peachester
Hell of a forcast...

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#1452344 - 12/02/2018 16:08 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 35
Loc: Peachester
...Queensland actually gets a cyclone. Did you spot it?

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#1452353 - 12/02/2018 16:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I think it’s a low that then forms into s cyclone when it crosses the top end and into WA😁

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#1452385 - 12/02/2018 19:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah even EC is cranking the intensity now. I think 930hPa down around Degrey/Pardoo area. No doubt a bit will change but wild weather ahead and to think that GOC might be the next one to cruise on over. haha WA magnet this year.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1452550 - 13/02/2018 19:57 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Looking pretty gnarly for Pardoo to Hedland now....

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#1452610 - 14/02/2018 02:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3769
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Broome Airport is already sitting on its 8th wettest year on record. Another 250mm over the next week (by no means beyond the realm of possibility) would be enough to lift it to 3rd.

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#1452629 - 14/02/2018 09:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Delta-T]
croc crew Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2007
Posts: 187
Loc: Maningrida, Arnhem Land, NT
I reckon that Low in the GOC has been put in with Photoshop.

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#1452645 - 14/02/2018 12:10 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Blair Trewin]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
Broome Airport is already sitting on its 8th wettest year on record. Another 250mm over the next week (by no means beyond the realm of possibility) would be enough to lift it to 3rd.

Thanks for that stat there Blair. It has definitely been an amazing season to date. One system after the other with more to come by the looks. Not as many individual storms adding to the total just big events ticking the totals over. To think that so many of those storms have just missed us aswell. Cheers
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1452649 - 14/02/2018 12:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Started a new thread for this system here http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1452648#Post1452648. It might flush out a few of the Pilbara crew on here as it looks like it might menace that area down the track.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1452753 - 14/02/2018 21:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: croc crew]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: croc crew
I reckon that Low in the GOC has been put in with Photoshop.

Yea no low mentioned on Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis on BOM.

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#1452813 - 15/02/2018 12:39 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Red Watch]
Red Watch Offline
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Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 440
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: Red Watch
Originally Posted By: croc crew
I reckon that Low in the GOC has been put in with Photoshop.

Yea no low mentioned on Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis on BOM.

Sorry didn't realise that was Feb 21st forecast, but now GFS puts a low/cyclone further east in the Coral sea on that date.

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#1453547 - 20/02/2018 11:04 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
More potential for something to pop up over the next week to 10 days. Interesting little feature appearing to be modeled inland NT around Tennant Creek pushing WNW through the interior towards the Southern Kimberley while another weaker LOW coming around the top. Be interesting to see if one or the other dominates or whether there might be any interaction between the two. A bit of Fujiwara interaction with both lows circulating around Broome for a week haha another 500mm coming up. The way this season is going some kind of freak event might be on the cards.

Imagine the inland LOW developing over land as it approached to move offshore. A bit like Kelvin intensifying over land but this one coming from the other direction. So much random strange stuff going on this year.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1453560 - 20/02/2018 12:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Popeye - I think your imagination has become a bit over active with all the rain... wink

Mate - you're not wrong though models are hinting at both those scenarios at the moment.....


Edited by Sepo (20/02/2018 12:39)

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#1453572 - 20/02/2018 13:42 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 803
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Can you throw some of your rain over here, 434mm for us this year...shocking....Seem the WET tropics are turning dry
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Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Apr 2018]: 10mm (Ave 136mm)
Mar 2018: 679.9mm (avg 329.6mm)
YTD 2018 1787.3mm (Avg 1952.1mm)

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#1453611 - 20/02/2018 18:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
So based on the intensification of TC Kelvin and the latest EC run it looks like the Great Sandy Desert is the new spawning ground for TC’s 😜

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#1453637 - 20/02/2018 21:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: rainthisway]
cold@28 Offline
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Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2376
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Popeye
A bit of Fujiwara interaction with both lows circulating around Broome for a week haha another 500mm coming up. The way this season is going some kind of freak event might be on the cards.

I thought it was interesting that New Zealand is going to break Cyclone Gita in half.

Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Can you throw some of your rain over here, 434mm for us this year...shocking....Seem the WET tropics are turning dry


New Zealand will have had more than us in FNQ, with Cyclone Gita apparently still a Category 1 last time I looked.

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#1453653 - 20/02/2018 22:14 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Sepo]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Sepo
So based on the intensification of TC Kelvin and the latest EC run it looks like the Great Sandy Desert is the new spawning ground for TC’s 😜

Yeah I think that area is the one to watch. Tennant Creek shifting WNW to be up this way and moving offshore. Be interesting to see what it could do rain wise being detached from the Monsoon. I would imagine some nude circulation in previous years but who knows this season. It could gain some nice structure and dump rain again.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1453710 - 21/02/2018 10:55 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Sepo]
scott12 Offline
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Registered: 10/11/2015
Posts: 950
Loc: maadi Tully area
Originally Posted By: Sepo
So based on the intensification of TC Kelvin and the latest EC run it looks like the Great Sandy Desert is the new spawning ground for TC’s 😜


Maybe not so far fetched after all..

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/cyclo...nland-wa/527537

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#1453861 - 22/02/2018 11:12 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Looks like its all slowly being phased back now. Time for some sun and blue sky with some nice evening thunderstorms instead.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1453882 - 22/02/2018 14:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah it looks like it even though DFES and ABC Kimberley are talking about 'more to come' as well as every man and his dog around town....

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#1453963 - 22/02/2018 23:07 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah jumped the gun there. Now #fakenews. I guess if they are going to look at models and pretty pics on windyapp 10 days out they are sure to be 1500kms out just as the last 4 systems have been. Nothing gets in the way of an amped up story though.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456164 - 08/03/2018 11:27 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
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Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
So I’m curious with GSF and EC both sticking with their now multiple run trend of the gulf low doing completely different things, EC sending it south and washing out, GSF bringing it across top end and then SW along the Kimberley coast. It seems EC are counting on the blocking high in the Tasman sticking there for an extended period while GSF are sticking with, what would normally be the expected scenario, ridge forming from the next high coming west to east. Interesting and I think if EC wins that will be it for WA, well west Kimberley anyway, for this wet.....

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#1456170 - 08/03/2018 12:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
OOOOH big call there Sepo. But I kind of hope you are right. Early season Tc's/and LOWS are great but once it has dragged on for 4 months everyone kind of looks forward to the onset of the dry not another TC to disrupt things. Still along way off though I guess. Another 4 weeks to go but realistically you could add another 2 weeks on to make sure of no late season surprises. Hopefully we just return to some more of the afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Even that is looking slim pickings in the short term. Cant complain about the west this year really. Other than the mozzies and maybe a few more sparks.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456171 - 08/03/2018 12:33 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Latest gfs run has the low running up to Timor then doing a u turn back to Darwin.Same scenario as ec just ones forming in the Timor sea and the other in the Arafura sea.Seems they are both backing that blocking high in the Tasman.I still don't think it's over yet for the Kimberley and Pilbara area.

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#1456230 - 08/03/2018 18:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
darwindix Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 72
Loc: Jingili Darwin
Oh we'll they have both changed again.

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#1456448 - 09/03/2018 23:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah maybe the second half of March could throw something up... I also note that the MJO appears to be strengthening as it approaches the Martime Continent....

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#1456704 - 11/03/2018 22:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest EC and GFS have a beast pushing West from the Top End. Lets hope that ridging gets a little break in there somewhere to smash it onto the coast somewhere. We dont want any wasted rain potential for those places that need it. Dropping down between Karratha and Onslow would be a good outcome. Broome has had enough rain. Lets hope somewhere else cops a 350mm drenching
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1456708 - 11/03/2018 22:32 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
I thought QLD was going to get two ‘scary cyclones’ 😂

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#1456712 - 11/03/2018 22:44 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1827
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Nah we just get Psychlones over this way. Check out the MSM for examples.

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#1456769 - 12/03/2018 15:03 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

From BOM ...Seems positive for development.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria

Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Sunday 11 March 2018
for the period until midnight CST Wednesday 14 March 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


The monsoon trough is becoming more active over northern Australia and a tropical low is expected to develop in the Arafura Sea early next week. Environmental conditions are favourable for further development if any system that forms remains over water. Therefore the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region may increase towards the end of the week.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1456780 - 12/03/2018 15:49 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Meanwhile latest GSF has ridge not as strong as previous runs, as has been the case for the entire season, and a couple of consecutive coast scourers.....

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#1456781 - 12/03/2018 15:54 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome


Yes Sepo but one thing the models haven't been good at this season is predicting the strength of the mid to high level ridges...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457144 - 14/03/2018 13:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Supposed to go to Hedland at Easter.......Interesting timing

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#1457190 - 14/03/2018 20:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
That 919 hPa monster that EC are modelling needs to stay away from WA coast or there’ll be a mess somewhere.....

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#1457244 - 15/03/2018 12:18 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

Yep Access is interested in a south-southwest movement in a few days...


Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 14 March 2018
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 17 March 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil

Potential Cyclones:


A tropical low is forming over the Timor Sea. It is likely to move south-southeast towards the Top End of the Northern Territory as it develops on Thursday and Friday, before beginning to move westwards from Saturday. There is the chance the system tracks more to the south-southwest over the next couple of days, in which case there is the risk for it to move into the Western Region on Saturday, however it is more likely to remain east of 125E until later in the weekend or early next week.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457255 - 15/03/2018 13:46 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3484
Loc: Broome

When its gets off the coast of the Kimberley it will depend on the strength of the ridge to how far she goes west.

Also seems once the ridge has weakened then if a mid level trough has the timing and strength to drag it in towards the coast then may be game on at Cat3 or higher for between Onslow to Carnarvon.

But early days yet but be interesting how the low develops over the next four days as it has a very good monsoonal moisture inflow from the north east.

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1457521 - 17/03/2018 11:36 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 222
Loc: Cable Beach
Well I think we have seen the last of serious weather personally. Sadly. Hoping we can have a few rogue storms to see us in to the dry. Fingers crossed.

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#1459057 - 25/03/2018 22:29 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2017/2018 [Re: Popeye]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Like I said back on the 8th of March. All over now, maybe some ‘knock em down rain’ which would be nice but this heat wave is building up to nothing but a sweaty end to wet season 17/18 - but what a wet it’s been!

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