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#1441930 - 21/11/2017 22:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2163
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
The trees and shrubs are using huge quantities of water atm,
Hard to keep up with the watering in the nursery!
Nice wearing shorts though!

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#1441939 - 22/11/2017 00:07 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 734
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Originally Posted By: Snowies
MH2O will be crying in his weeties with the BOM predicting a weak but dry La Nina event that is likely to increase the frequencies of heat waves in Vic and Tas this coming summer - but maybe not the extent of the 2009 summer.

Locally no days under 26 until Monday at the earliest up here. Been creeping over 26 all week but not cracked 27 yet... could be 8 days on the bounce with Fri and Sat the hottest.

You can bet I won't be the only one complaining by the end of this , I'm prepared and wouldn't rule out this lasting to April and May next year.

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#1441943 - 22/11/2017 01:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Winter_lover Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2016
Posts: 81
Loc: Tasmania, Rokeby Hobart Easter...
Wouldn't be so bad if it wasn't as dry as a desert.

Hobart is a 300-400 mm of rain lower than average.

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#1441956 - 22/11/2017 09:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Someone better row out into the Tasman and move those high pressure systems along.

If that pattern persists then unfortunately you will remain warm.

Can only hope that a rain break occurs every now and then. However going on the way this year has worked - not much confidence in that either.

I know if I was back there, I would already be sick of it as well.

We are like you, only just had a bees dick over half our annual rainfall so far this year. About 300mm behind annual total and about 240 behind average to end of November.

HOWEVER - in the last month we have been lucky enough to get 60mm whereas you guys have not. That constant High feeds Eastern NSW with moisture in the air (easterly quadrant winds) as it dries Tassie out due to Northerly airflow. Same system - different effects due to location.

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#1441967 - 22/11/2017 11:06 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: MOUNTAIN h2o]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2006
Loc: Westbury
Originally Posted By: MOUNTAIN h2o
Originally Posted By: Snowies
MH2O will be crying in his weeties with the BOM predicting a weak but dry La Nina event that is likely to increase the frequencies of heat waves in Vic and Tas this coming summer - but maybe not the extent of the 2009 summer.

Locally no days under 26 until Monday at the earliest up here. Been creeping over 26 all week but not cracked 27 yet... could be 8 days on the bounce with Fri and Sat the hottest.

You can bet I won't be the only one complaining by the end of this , I'm prepared and wouldn't rule out this lasting to April and May next year.


No, doubt you'll be the only one. If summer is long and hot, then the rainfall anoms are going to bite hard - especially in the east. Could see a lot of water restrictions and worries about drinking water supplies on the east coast. Nevermind the farmers, potential for fire etc.

Brightonbreeze is coping the worst of the heat and no rain - looked dry when I last went through almost a month ago. And all this coming on the back of some severe frosts through winter.

DM - certainly the case of same system, different outcomes. Hobart has been warmer than Syd and Brisbane of late. Today its also warmer than Can. and well ahead of a cool Perth. =

Not so bad up my way yet, at least 6 of the last 7 months have had >55mm but this month has been dry and the brown patches are starting to open up on what was a thick, wet lush lawn only a month ago.

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#1441972 - 22/11/2017 11:22 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes the next few days - Hobart will be warmer than here as well. Some days 3 or more degrees warmer than us.

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#1441994 - 22/11/2017 16:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2163
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Check the forecast out amazingly Hot!!!!
9 days above 25 looks possible for the record!!
Could see thunderstorms at some point but also looking like another hot week especially mid next week. Thinking 33 degrees or more for Wednesday and 30 till Friday.
Hobart now forecast 29 degrees next Wednesday.
Tomorrow has been upped tp 31 and Hot with possible 30-40% chance of a shower or storm.

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#1441998 - 22/11/2017 17:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 191
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Yeah so very Hot SF with no relief in sight!! The possibility of storms makes things better though. grin

Hey Snowies, good point regarding the frost a few months back, they shocked a few well established plants around home, a couple just never came back but a few are still struggling. On top of that everything requires watering every evening.

A touch under 34C at home today, I've given up on how many days its been over what temperature, will work it out when things get down to a normal temp, one thing i noticed is the days are becoming a lot drier, down to 17% RH this afternoon. Absolutely flat out at work with re fridge breakdowns coming in left, right and centre! shocked

MH20, I've sent you a message re- A/C.

Currently a hot 29C and looking like a 33C again tomorrow... smirk


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#1441999 - 22/11/2017 17:35 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 412
Loc: Hobart
As far as I am concerned this is not just a rare, random weather event anymore.. the averages and new record margins this month will blow out anything ever registered.

Wow to the November average. Month will finish +4c above the long-term average and more than +1c above the old record for November..

Really interesting to think what summer has in store now, monthly temp averages to keep climbing as is natures way with hardly any rain, or steady as she goes at November figures..

Haven't minded this heatwave personally but I have a fan in my face at work which keeps me cool, portable a/c at home. The warm mornings are great ( have risen really early and gone on long bike rides just in tshirt ) , but have to feel uncomfortable with the change in the climate /what it will mean for ecological diversity.

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#1442009 - 22/11/2017 20:03 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 412
Loc: Hobart
Another thing to watch on top of everything else is days over 30c in Hobart. The November record is 3 so we'll need tomorrow and the 29th + 30th to collect 4. I think we can do it because everything is being upped as it gets closer .

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#1442021 - 22/11/2017 22:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2163
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Latest GFS model has 50mm for the SE!
Maybe we will get a drink on Monday.
Small low off the East Coast?????

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#1442023 - 22/11/2017 22:49 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2006
Loc: Westbury
9 in a row over 25 is ridiculous - the probability of that occurring in November based on all previous Novembers (where you take the longest run of 25+ days) is so small that excel wont return a significant figure. The mean longest run is 1.4 days with a standard deviation of .87. So 95% of years have a run between 0 days and 3.2 days - 99% of years (in fact 100% of the current record until now) should have 4 or less consec. days over 25. A run of 9 would be a full 8.7 standard deviations from the mean...

The probability of 9 days over 25 in a row occurring in any month is still only 1 in 18000 months based on current history. Or once every 1500 years...


The probability of a mean max temp of 22.0 in November is slightly less absurd at a 1 in 2700 probability again based on all current records.

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#1442033 - 23/11/2017 01:50 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: Snowies]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 412
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: Snowies
The probability of a mean max temp of 22.0 in November is slightly less absurd at a 1 in 2700 probability again based on all current records.


It'll be 22.7c at months end going by last night's forecast, or maybe even more. A +1.2c record leap from 1921. That surely blows out your numbers quite a bit. It probably starts to become an irrelevant exercise in the end to look at chance for individual events, because there's one heat record after another these days. Can't put a historical context on it.

Anyway its such a nice settled night tonight, the sea smells so strong..



Edited by yep (23/11/2017 01:50)

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#1442045 - 23/11/2017 08:02 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2006
Loc: Westbury
My conversions were astray. So an average max of 22.7 is a 1 in 1700 November's event. The average of 22.0 is a 1 in 270 November's chance.

9 over 25 in a row in any month is 1 in 1800000 years, 6 in a row like today will be is a 1 in a 100 year event.

I think the fact you can't put a historical context on these type of events is the point - something has changed...

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#1442050 - 23/11/2017 08:59 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
No doubt in my mind it has changed.

It is worrying as Yep said about the ecology etc, that sort of thing could have very large implications.

The big paddock is too full of stock and someone is messing with the climate control. Not a good mix in my mind.

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#1442057 - 23/11/2017 10:13 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 938
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all

Sure seems to be a hell of a lot of records being broken.

Here are my rainfall/temperature figures for the month so far.

Rainfall MTD '17 45mm
Rainfall MTD '16 241mm
So down by 200 odd mm for November alone!

Temperature observations are from a standard Max/Min thermometer with 1 increments. I round down to the nearest 0.5 so as not to overstate observations.

To make a comparison to other West Coast records, here are the official long term November mean maximum figures for Queenstown 17.6, and Strahan 17.8. Strahan MTD mean max is 21.3 with 8 days left in the month.

And now for my November temperatures...as recorded up till yesterday.

MTD mean max 21.9
Days >20 13
Days >25 9
Days >30 4
Days in a row >20 13
Days in a row >25 6
Days in a row >30 2

With the current outlook and 8 days left in the month. Broken records are already a foregone conclusion.

I would love to know how how my observations compare to other district records and indeed also to Tasmanian records as a whole.

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#1442072 - 23/11/2017 12:00 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2006
Loc: Westbury
The above figures assume a normal distribution but the data is heavily skewed, there are a lot more high records than should be the case if normally distributed. Thus using a more realistic distribution,

6 days over 25 in a row is a 1 in 20 year probability and 6 days over 26 is a 1 in 40 year probability.

However 6 days over 25 in November is a 1 in 1500 chance and 6 days over 26 in November should only occur 1 in 5500 years.

9 days over 25 at anytime of the year is a 1 in 500 year chance and 9 days over 26 at anytime of the year is a 1 in 1500 chance. The odds of either 9 day runs occurring in Nov are very small...

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#1442073 - 23/11/2017 12:00 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 2006
Loc: Westbury
PH - I think your results are reflective of the whole state, bar the far North Coast.

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#1442101 - 23/11/2017 15:51 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: payshense]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 412
Loc: Hobart
Originally Posted By: payshense

I would love to know how how my observations compare to other district records and indeed also to Tasmanian records as a whole.


Check this out, it might give you the information you are after, with everything on the one page
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/region.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=tas&subset=a&list=ms

More yellow codings will undoubtedly be added to the monthly temperature averages with one week to go.

I too will be interested in what the Tasmania-wide average for the month turns out to be - after all this drama, I hope it sails past the existing record.

Incidentally I just had a look at the Hydro storages. I am quite surprised they are at 45%, they accumulated much more over Spring than I expected..

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#1442102 - 23/11/2017 15:53 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Definitely a lot of yellow in there Yep!!

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