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#1441978 - 22/11/2017 12:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Befour Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2015
Posts: 207
Loc: Kingsford (Sydney)
I guess GFS showing flooding accumulations so frequently by the 16th day in so many runs hasn't really paid off for it poke haha.

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#1441979 - 22/11/2017 12:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Right in the path of the red train at Caloundra. Very wet indeed with occasional thunder and appears to be slow moving. Intense showers through the night as well.

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#1441984 - 22/11/2017 13:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Yes, Snapper, I wouldn't be surprised if the BoM put out a STW for heavy rain or flash flooding considering the saturation of the ground and the slowness of this system.
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#1441986 - 22/11/2017 14:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3523
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Doesnt look good for us out here atm.
Overcast with the odd sunshine poking through. Occasional gusty E'ly.

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#1441993 - 22/11/2017 16:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 802
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Groundhog day round here again just the usual crud occasional onshore shower.

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#1442012 - 22/11/2017 21:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1174
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Managed 4mm on the weekend, and 4.5mm today. Would be nice to get a good downpour soon but better than a kick in the teeth.
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-320.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-144

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1442018 - 22/11/2017 22:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1124
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Over here in Queenstown nz, cannot fathom , weather here sheets on weather at home. Itís sublime here. So glad there isnít a storm outbreak whilst Iím away , as is typical.

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#1442028 - 22/11/2017 23:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 578
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Liking the weather of late, always checking the skies for Features in the layers whilst watching for a darker patches on the horizons cool

On another note: a slightly higher interest 'or' Heads-up, for this Saturday; tho a few days out and to be 'taken-with-a-grain-of-salt' from this duck - but for what-ever its worth remains to all with experience for a clearer explanation/diagnosing - if applicable ? hehe !
Of Course there are other influences that I am not really aware of that could impede on any hope for a little action that I am 'not' aware of, tho -
Just thought to add my 'Bob's' worth cool

Pitcher says a thousand words :-) touch wood.




Edited by PlumbBob (22/11/2017 23:29)
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Weather or not ?

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#1442029 - 22/11/2017 23:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10440
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
6.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am. 0.4mm since 9am from a light passing shower. There was faint, distant thunder from a brief storm that formed inland of here this afternoon.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
October 2018 Rainfall: 104.6mm (October Avg. 90.8mm) // October 2018 Raindays: 7 (October Avg. 11.0 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1184.8mm (Jan-Oct Avg. 1241.0mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 104 (Jan-Oct Avg. 112.8 raindays)

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#1442046 - 23/11/2017 08:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4738
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 rain 0.2mm. Current shower.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct108.4(95)YTD830.0(928.6)

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#1442049 - 23/11/2017 08:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 802
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Sorry Plumbob but all I can see is more of the same that high pressure system being as strong as it is will be just directing windy onshore showers onto the coast if anything looking at the latest access R runs.This thing is locked in for the long haul.What ever happened to the phenomenon of a cold front?They just seem to be a feature in winter these days.A strong change from the south eedt would probably give this thing a nudge along but dont hold ya breath waiting for that to happen.Anyway its not a bad start to the day down here sunny and relatively calm.

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#1442053 - 23/11/2017 09:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: PlumbBob]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5381
Originally Posted By: PlumbBob
On another note: a slightly higher interest 'or' Heads-up, for this Saturday; tho a few days out and to be 'taken-with-a-grain-of-salt' from this duck - but for what-ever its worth remains to all with experience for a clearer explanation/diagnosing - if applicable ? hehe !
Of Course there are other influences that I am not really aware of that could impede on any hope for a little action that I am 'not' aware of, tho -
Just thought to add my 'Bob's' worth cool

Pitcher says a thousand words :-) touch wood.

Currently there's big differences between models for Saturday atm. GFS and ACCESS-R are going for an ESE type wind flow with some reasonable moisture in the lower levels and therefore produces reasonable CAPE values and the pretty colours on the charts you posted... whereas EC is going for a drier SSE to SE type flow with much less instability and precip.

But the real pattern shift happens next week when winds gradually start swinging around to ENE'lies then NE'lies and N'lies (currently EC eventually has a front getting close to us next weekend with SW'lies behind it).
It may only be a temporary shift though.

The 2-week graph below for Archerfield shows the percentage of forecast scenarios from the ensemble version of GFS going for a combo of CAPE exceeding 500j/kg AND wind direction from the northeast:



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#1442056 - 23/11/2017 09:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1570
Loc: Australia
Thanks Ken for you previous answer, re the cold pools/upper troughs.

With the position of the high's, I think we have discussed this before, but has something do to with the Southern Annual Mode?
Be interesting to see what the current SAM values are, and how this reflects to our current weather patterns.

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#1442065 - 23/11/2017 11:26 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: gleno71]
CJI Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/10/2005
Posts: 130
Loc: Victoria Point
Hi Gleno,

My quick go to with the SAM is the AAO:
NOAA AAO
NOAA AAO line
Though for long-term analysis, pre-satellite, I'll use Marshall.

I think the SAM is limited in regards to longitudinal positioning of blocking highs, despite the association with the strength of prevailing westerlies. But it may offer useful insight into the reduced inland cold front penetration within cols.

Rossby and quasi-stationary waves are probably the way to go.


Edited by CJI (23/11/2017 11:29)
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Gallery

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#1442069 - 23/11/2017 11:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
PlumbBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/05/2011
Posts: 578
Loc: Ashmore Gold Coast
Cheers for that, Ken K; always respecting your valued input cool
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Weather or not ?

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#1442104 - 23/11/2017 15:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 802
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thunder heard just south west of here at Tumbulgum

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#1442124 - 23/11/2017 17:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3225
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Actually liking this cooler weather its boring but only about 4 weeks left of work and id be happy for it to remain cool and no storms until then. Only as its pretty pleasant to labour in.

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#1442133 - 23/11/2017 18:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 285
Loc: Tallai, QLD
I gave up fencing after 13 years last summer, they just seem to get hotter and hotter......or is it me... older and older.
Definitely far better weather to be workin outside at the moment, that's for sure.
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We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1442139 - 23/11/2017 19:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3225
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Tallai lovely place to live I grew up in Mudgeeraba love that area.

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#1442148 - 23/11/2017 20:55 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Steve O]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 285
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Really Steve, lived there from '81 myself, big changes since then.
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We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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