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#1442290 - 25/11/2017 08:56 Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
If this situation comes to play, maybe this heralds the 2017/2018 "La Nina" summer?

We have a similar easterly dip scenario to that we've seen of late, but check out the temperature gradient (gap between the red and blue lines) on the GFS prognosis below:


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#1442291 - 25/11/2017 09:45 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yep EC thrown up some ridiculous totals for my place at end of next week.

Worth noting it had similar totals for now on a run a week ago..
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#1442341 - 26/11/2017 09:24 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
i wrote this elsewhere, Friday-Saturday - potential for widespread flooding, totals between 100-150mm with isolated falls up to 200mm.

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#1442379 - 26/11/2017 16:20 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
GFS on 00z run today still has over 100mm from Thursday to Saturday for my place, we shall see........
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#1442392 - 26/11/2017 18:32 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep to above, I note GFS morphs the easterly dip into an ECL on its current run:


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#1442421 - 26/11/2017 22:48 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC 00z run has 70+mm for me in the same time frame.

Will try to keep a lid on it till at least Tuesday though I know I should wait longer
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#1442452 - 27/11/2017 13:38 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Some changes to the charts on latest runs.

That crazy Saturday scenario seems to be somewhat more tame on GFS but EC still throwing up decent numbers. Will probably change 5 X between now and Thurs.

I'll be spewing to miss this if this eventuates as modeled as I will miss out being interstate around Sydney from Thursday - Sunday but look forward to seeing everyone's reports after. grin

Could get some action up North there on the Sunday too so may not miss out entirely.

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#1442491 - 27/11/2017 18:58 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS shows high (> 75mm) rain in many areas for the same date range.

Good for the lawn mower blade business!

....and very good for those Vic farm irrigators that may be granted spill entitlement if the dam levels rise enough over the next 3 weeks or so.

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#1442503 - 27/11/2017 21:17 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
I wouldn't worry about the surface charts, the upper low will rule this event.
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#1442515 - 27/11/2017 22:01 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
So, Anthony, what's your view of what the upper low will do and the effect?

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#1442536 - 28/11/2017 06:15 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
GFS 12z is back at widespread 100-150mm with possible falls to 250mm thursday to sunday. The BoM model is tipping the tasman high to move. Interesting

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#1442537 - 28/11/2017 07:27 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: ThunderBob]
Anthony Violi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2001
Posts: 2326
Loc: Soon to be Mt Barker - SA
There is a long lived blocking event going on, and thats going to increase the rainfall dramatically. There has also been a substantial cooling at 500 mb in November, this is the time when La Nina usually starts to cool the upper levels quickly, and thats what has now happened, with upper ridges now off shore.

So I think the scenarios we are seeing are a good chance to play out, the models have only just realised the uppers are colder, when in reality I have witnessed it for the last 3 weeks with the way the short wave troughs keep developing over WA. Given the moisture levels, this looks to be an epic event.
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#1442540 - 28/11/2017 07:56 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Thanks Anthony. Interesting!

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#1442542 - 28/11/2017 08:05 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
This mornings ACCESS has a low loitering on Vic E coast Sat night/Sun morning, interesting - is this an E.C.L. event in the forecast ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
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#1442545 - 28/11/2017 08:23 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Windy map for Sunday next also interesting, coming up from down south onto the Vic E coast, fed by the rainband, is this a possible ?

https://www.windyty.com/?surface,wind,2015-02-17-00,-22.796,154.292,4

Could be light the fire time on Sunday also!


Edited by samboz (28/11/2017 08:28)
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#1442579 - 28/11/2017 13:15 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
convection going up around here again- around 29c at the moment. Very marginal for storms- dewpoint needs to be a few degrees higher due to warmish midlevels atm.

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#1442599 - 28/11/2017 18:14 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Heavy convection on the ranges E of Mt Baw Baw this arvo, significant anvils, dissipated themselves circa 5pm (seabreeze not the blame). Any storm in Gippsland today had to be born on the Strezleckiis - which remained clear all day.

28C in Maffra, fine all day, yet little/no seabreeze.

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#1442600 - 28/11/2017 18:24 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7048
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
This mornings ACCESS has a low loitering on Vic E coast Sat night/Sun morning, interesting - is this an E.C.L. event in the forecast ?


....this is what an ECL would look like if it comes to play:





....and Samboz, also have a look at the longer term charts following into Wed next week, ...if that subsequent closed low pressure scenario comes to play you will be an ECL expert! smile

And (Gippy-centric) - current EC is showing 3" rain for Maffra between now and next Thursday. As previously stated, millions of dollars swing on whether this comes to play or not, in terms of writing off used Lake Glenmaggie water right as spill entitlements if sufficient water arrives before mid December.


Edited by Petros (28/11/2017 18:32)

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#1442629 - 28/11/2017 22:32 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2536
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
If Victoria going into wet mode then we will have mosquito breeding..

We need low temperatures after heavy rains to let water soak the ground is good this weekend.

Last week heavy rain does nothing because the hot days dries up surface too fast.

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#1442635 - 28/11/2017 23:56 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 561
Loc: Chadstone Vic
ITs gonna be a BIG Event for NC, NE Vic.
100mm easy with many in NE Vic and around the mounts looking more 150mm plus, possible isol 200mm in about 36 hours in the mounts mod to major flooding possible if all comes down quick but more so high mods at this time.

HUGE rain event bit like Sept 4th 2010

Bigger write up tomorrow

Get Excited
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