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#1442637 - 29/11/2017 00:51 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My first post for this event! Yes I'm now back up-to-date!! grin

Yesterday's stats from here in Belgrave:

Min: 11.5C Max: 33.7C Rain: 0mm

A rather coolish start to the day, but the afternoon felt hot and humid, offset by a refreshening easterly/southeasterly breeze during the afternoon and evening. It was sunny, except for yet more spectacular thunderstorms the flared over the ranges to Melbourne's northeast. Also a bit of high cloud to the southwest at sunset. smile

Looking forward to this event and I hope it comes off, as we're finishing the month and Spring 2017 on a dry note with less than 40mm. A wet start to summer would be greatly appreciated.

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#1442641 - 29/11/2017 05:51 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
12z GFS has really outdone itself with 50-80mm falling on a wide area each day friday,saturday, sunday. possibly rain records for victoria will be broken for december. EC agrees but ACCESS moves everything faster.


Edited by Kunatua (29/11/2017 05:52)

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#1442650 - 29/11/2017 08:38 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1873
Loc: Gippsland, S/E VIC
While the ground in Sale/Maffra areas is dry, heavy rain in the catchments to our north will result in flooding IF the rain is heavy enough and run off exceeds soakage.

http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html?ops=gfs:2017112812:0:192:vic:nul#rc

Some of the models talking up 175mm plus remind me of the 1990 flooding from the Avon River, busy time by all with Boisdale township suffering 1m thru' the township and farm lands. The Mitchell River also impacted Lindenow & Bairnsdale.

https://www.floodvictoria.vic.gov.au/learn-about-flooding/flood-history/1971-to-2000-floods

Not prone to sensationalism but the 250mm rainfall, largely overnight, was a major flood event.

Here is another GFS take on it -

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/agriculture/?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&c=14day&rc=rain&p=168
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mmSept-26mmOct-87mm Nov-30mm Dec-135mm =475mm

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#1442651 - 29/11/2017 08:57 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Twister1]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Twister1
ITs gonna be a BIG Event for NC, NE Vic.
100mm easy with many in NE Vic and around the mounts looking more 150mm plus, possible isol 200mm in about 36 hours in the mounts mod to major flooding possible if all comes down quick but more so high mods at this time.

HUGE rain event bit like Sept 4th 2010

Bigger write up tomorrow

Get Excited


Certainly GFS current run is!:



....and the normally conservative (for Gippy) model ECMF again moots more than 3" rain here from Fri-next week, as it did on last nights run. smile

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#1442685 - 29/11/2017 12:09 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Sounding is in - inversion at 2800m. Surface temps need to hit the 36/37c mark before storms become a possibility around Melbourne or the inversion breaks...hmmmmmm

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#1442692 - 29/11/2017 12:26 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 18.0C, at the last check it was around 32C. Getting hot and sweaty... loving it! Hoping storms break out over the ranges this arvo!! grin

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#1442702 - 29/11/2017 13:24 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Either one of the North Korean ICBM have hit Rokewood or the Cap has just been busted... actually two cells have broken the cap - it looks like a nuclear bomb - its part of a line of cumuli to my southwest - so it maybe the seabreeze boundary.

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#1442703 - 29/11/2017 13:26 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
Actually the dewpoints are a few degrees higher than what I was thinking. Storms are much more probable, particularly if the cap gives way

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#1442708 - 29/11/2017 13:34 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
And the poor excuse for a RADAR is picking that cell up now, though very weakly.. sitting over Cobden.

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#1442709 - 29/11/2017 13:39 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
lightning also detected from the cell. Ironic that first thunderstorm has formed well outside the BoM Thunderstorm Forecasted area.

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#1442720 - 29/11/2017 14:17 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Kunatua]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 670
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
And the poor excuse for a RADAR is picking that cell up now, though very weakly.. sitting over Cobden.


Laverton radar is finally back up grin

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#1442721 - 29/11/2017 14:19 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: balmz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 670
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: balmz
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
And the poor excuse for a RADAR is picking that cell up now, though very weakly.. sitting over Cobden.


Laverton radar is finally back up grin


Or not, died again. Wow they need to sort this mess out.

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#1442734 - 29/11/2017 15:43 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21037
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:38 pm Wednesday, 29 November 2017.
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY

A high pressure system will continue to strengthen over the Tasman Sea this week allowing a hot and humid northeasterly airstream to continue. A trough of low pressure crossing the Bight will reach western Victoria on Thursday and then become slow-moving. A low pressure system will develop over northwestern Victoria on Friday before drifting slowly southeastwards over the weekend.

HEAVY RAIN and SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are likely to develop in the far west during THURSDAY night before extending across the remaining parts of the State during FRIDAY. The heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will continue on SATURDAY.

Three day totals of around 60-120mm are expected south of the Divide and over the far northwest with totals of between 100 and 200mm over remaining areas on and north of the Divide. However, totals over the northeast ranges may exceed 250mm.

Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga, Wangaratta, Traralgon and Bairnsdale.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Don't walk, ride or drive through flood water;
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains;
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks;
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEDT Wednesday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

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#1442743 - 29/11/2017 16:23 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
SES will very busy for Flooding as Bendigo likely over 100mm in two days.

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#1442744 - 29/11/2017 16:23 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
I've never seen this issued for Victoria previously..

Flood Watch Number: 1

A high pressure system will continue to strengthen over the Tasman Sea this week allowing a hot and humid northeasterly airstream to continue. A trough of low pressure crossing the Bight will reach western Victoria on Thursday and then become slow-moving. A low pressure system will develop over northwestern Victoria on Friday before drifting slowly southeastwards over the weekend.

Catchments within the flood watch area are dry.

Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop in the far west during Thursday night before extending across the remaining parts of the State during Friday. The heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will continue on Saturday.

Three day totals of around 60-120mm are expected south of the Divide and over the far northwest with totals of between 100 and 200mm over remaining areas on and north of the Divide. However, totals over the northeast ranges may exceed 250mm.

A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rain is also current for Victoria.

Significant stream rises are expected in response to the forecast rainfall. Widespread flooding is likely from Friday onwards in the catchments covered by this flood watch.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Snowy River
Tambo River
Mitchell River
Avon River
Macalister River
Thomson River
Latrobe River
Traralgon Creek
South Gippsland Rivers
Bunyip River and Dandenong Creek
Yarra River
Maribyrnong River
Werribee River
Barwon, Leigh and Moorabool Rivers
Hopkins River
Lake Corangamite
Otway Coast
Upper Murray and Mitta Mitta Rivers
Kiewa River
Ovens and King Rivers
Broken River
Broken Creek
Seven and Castle Creeks
Goulburn River
Campaspe River
Loddon River
Avoca River
Wimmera River

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#1442752 - 29/11/2017 17:12 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5942
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot, sweaty 40.3C here in Belgrave, my second-hottest November day on record (current record is 41.3C on November 29th 2012). It's also my hottest day for 2017, and my first 40C+ day since Christmas Day last year when we hit 40.5C. poke

Cooling down out there, currently around 34C. Likely to be a stiffing one tonight - will we break my record-high November minimum of 23.4C?

Been moderately convective, and now a few spotty showers and storms are forming along the highlands to the northeast. smile


Models, charts and forecasts are definitely coming online for what's likely to be an EPIC rain and storm event across Victoria to get us started for Summer 2017/2018! I'm getting flashbacks of February 2005 and February 2011; take a look at the 4-day forecasts for Melbourne!! shocked grin


Melbourne area

Thursday 30 November

Summary
Min 22 Max 35
Possible shower.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm
Chance of any rain: 40%

Mostly sunny morning. Medium (40%) chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Winds northerly 15 to 25 km/h turning northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the evening.


Friday 1 December
Summary
Min 22 Max 26
Heavy thundery rain.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon.


Saturday 2 December
Summary
Min 17 Max 21
Rain. Possible heavy falls.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 50 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.


Sunday 3 December
Summary
Min 15 Max 19
Rain. Possible heavy falls.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. Winds southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.

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#1442757 - 29/11/2017 17:55 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Kunatua Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/01/2009
Posts: 34
Loc: Keilor Park
I expect many records to tumble in the next few days. GFS is throwing possibilites of individual falls to 300mm now

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#1442762 - 29/11/2017 18:58 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This is a very significant flooding system now:



Too much model agreement for anything but flooding in many Victorian regions.

I'm expecting a repeat performance of damage at Lake Glenmaggie dam/power generator infrastructure as happened in 2010. The dam is 84% full atm. Luckily the bush is dry up there.

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#1442766 - 29/11/2017 19:11 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
State Control Center and Bom taking this very seriously, Evacuation plans have been briefs, significant extra resources for flood rescues have been sourced and will be located across the state on rapid response. BOM person one radio said it could be on of the most widespread flooding events in living memory for Victoria. Said 90% of Victoria will receive more than 100mm expect highest totals to be close to 300mm


Edited by logansi (29/11/2017 19:12)
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1442779 - 29/11/2017 20:44 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
BOM;'s latest warning has all of Vic in the highlighted zone.

Cant wait for Twisters update, for many years have loved to hear his thoughts, not scared to report the upside potential if the chances are there, also has always detailed his own personal prognosis.


Edited by Petros (29/11/2017 20:51)

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