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#1442785 - 29/11/2017 21:05 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Me too Petros, he will be loving how it looks. Still got to get in the gauges.

Cracked 30 for the first time this season at my place, 30.7c in fact so pretty warm and DP only mixed down to 11 or so at peak heating.

40 degrees ASF? Really? Hottest place in the state.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1442803 - 29/11/2017 22:58 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 534
Loc: Chadstone Vic
WOW WOW WOW
OMG

THIS IS AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR VIC

This is huge, this is not over the top, this is huge, today was crazy busy just got home.

So Excited

So forecast numbers are as big as I have ever seen in VIC.
This is BIGGER than Sept 4th 2010, more widespread and heavier that Feb 2-3 2005.

Deep trough, Strong upper low, slow moving, rapid development, HUGE upslide, massive upper divergence and Dps in the 20-22c range Buckets of moisture to lift.
Watch the WV over coming days gonna be unreal

N and E of a line Mildura to Stawell to Yarra Glen to Buchan this is big and you are likely to see 100-200mm event totals in many areas. Min 50-80mm for that whole area.
Higher 200-300mm falls possible in the NE ranges, with strong up slope and were storms train or pivot over your region as the upper low deepens and tracks from NW Vic into SE NSW.

Were do i begin Wow.

Upper trough stands up into SA tomorrow, with strong upslide and widespread showers and thunderstorms, tending to rain at times and quickly moving into W NW Vic late Thursday into Thurs night with heavy falls.
That will move into central Vic in the morning, before re firing state wide Friday arvo as the surface trough moves into W Vic, combined with the VERY humid airmass in place, it will also start to deepen more as the upper feature stand ups further over SA. Storm motion will shift from NW-SE to almost due N-S Friday night.

ALSO Fri night a strong potent upper low will move to near Port Agusta SA, leading to rapid development of heavy rain and storms over E SA, that will shift into NW VIC on Saturday and as the upper low moves further east, into richer air, it will explode inducing a surface low over S NSW, with the upper low over NW Vic.
This will pivot the rain over Central and E Vic with a non stop conveyor belt of rain and storms feeding down from central NSW. Heavy Rain and storms will start off moving NW-SE then N_S then NE_SW as the rain and storms begin to wrap around the low Saturday morning right into Saturday night.
This pivot on top of all of Fridays rain and storms is flooding will become a major concern.
Also the Strong winds at 850Hpa will be perpendicular to the ranges so huge up slope totals are expected.

Also with the low over NW Vic and S NSW just like Feb 2005 it wont stop raining in parts for hours as the low passes to your N. This is the prefect set up for major flooding in Vic

Saturday night into Sunday the Surface low will quickly move into SE NSw the pop out off the Gippy coast when wrap around will become off concern for central Vic and possibly gippy but prob not so much at this time.

All easing and much cooler Sunday arvo and evening with showers in Central vic and Gippy.

Event totals are massive especially on and for N facing ranges and NE Vic 150-250mm likely with isol 300mm PLUS possible.

SW Vic get the least with 30-50 isol 80mm still big lol.
Everywhere E of Mildura to Warrnambool 50-100 with many areas in the 100-200mm range and quite a few in the 200-300mm range.
HUGE Numbers for Vic in 36 hours.
Record Dec rain both daily and monthly for many areas.

Alexia? I think, get ready u are gonna be flooded cant wait for reports.
All Rivers in NE Vic will go from nothing to Mod, Major in very quick time and water will be laying around for weeks in flatter areas of NW, NC and NE Vic even after the dry few months.

Its gonna be torrential, heavy, long lasting and widespread.

Crops will be ruined get it out now, if you are N and E of the line I mentioned above it will be all flooded come Sunday.

THIS IS AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR VIC.

PLEASE keep the reports coming in WATCH the BOM site for all the latest warnings and then river updates.

When posting warning just impacts and amounts dont need to clog thread with SES wording

GET Ready its a epic event for Vic
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1442804 - 29/11/2017 22:59 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 534
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Also Look at Bom forecasts the rainfall ranges show the 50% chance of happening and 25% chance of happening as you can see many places 25-50mm both Fri and Sat. with even more in the 50-100mm range BIG

MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT FOR VIC FRI-SUN
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1442805 - 29/11/2017 23:02 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Great stuff Dean
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1442810 - 29/11/2017 23:44 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Been to Bonnie Doon yesterday very surprised that mountains very dry and went over off track mountains to Euroa.

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#1442811 - 29/11/2017 23:55 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7279
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Kunatua
I've never seen this issued for Victoria previously..

Flood Watch Number: 1


Originally Posted By: Petros
This is a very significant flooding system now:
[...]
Too much model agreement for anything but flooding in many Victorian regions.

[] - Image Removed.

Originally Posted By: Twister1
WOW WOW WOW
OMG

THIS IS AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR VIC

If it is going to turn out as implied by the relevant models, then people need to be preparing accordingly. I'm not telling people what to do, but if 100s of mm [in less than a week] has not been heard of, let alone seen across such an area in a while...I'd say it is not to be taken lightly smile .

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#1442819 - 30/11/2017 06:22 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 576
Loc: Corryong
Twister1 Will keep you informed [if we keep power]really not looking forward to this. Lucky we have hay in shed.

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#1442828 - 30/11/2017 08:15 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Alexia]
bluey1960 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 25
Loc: Little River Vic
One of the horse wouldn't come out of his box last night, looked nervous and he is a stomach on legs. Hint of things to come? I always watch the animals'/birds/ants behaviours they are great portenders.

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#1442836 - 30/11/2017 09:08 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I note a slight back off from GFS this morning, but still moots major flooding over many area's.

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#1442841 - 30/11/2017 09:42 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Twister1]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2851
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Originally Posted By: Twister1
WOW WOW WOW
OMG

THIS IS AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR VIC

This is huge, this is not over the top, this is huge, today was crazy busy just got home.

So Excited

So forecast numbers are as big as I have ever seen in VIC.
This is BIGGER than Sept 4th 2010, more widespread and heavier that Feb 2-3 2005.

Deep trough, Strong upper low, slow moving, rapid development, HUGE upslide, massive upper divergence and Dps in the 20-22c range Buckets of moisture to lift.
Watch the WV over coming days gonna be unreal

N and E of a line Mildura to Stawell to Yarra Glen to Buchan this is big and you are likely to see 100-200mm event totals in many areas. Min 50-80mm for that whole area.
Higher 200-300mm falls possible in the NE ranges, with strong up slope and were storms train or pivot over your region as the upper low deepens and tracks from NW Vic into SE NSW.

Were do i begin Wow.

Upper trough stands up into SA tomorrow, with strong upslide and widespread showers and thunderstorms, tending to rain at times and quickly moving into W NW Vic late Thursday into Thurs night with heavy falls.
That will move into central Vic in the morning, before re firing state wide Friday arvo as the surface trough moves into W Vic, combined with the VERY humid airmass in place, it will also start to deepen more as the upper feature stand ups further over SA. Storm motion will shift from NW-SE to almost due N-S Friday night.

ALSO Fri night a strong potent upper low will move to near Port Agusta SA, leading to rapid development of heavy rain and storms over E SA, that will shift into NW VIC on Saturday and as the upper low moves further east, into richer air, it will explode inducing a surface low over S NSW, with the upper low over NW Vic.
This will pivot the rain over Central and E Vic with a non stop conveyor belt of rain and storms feeding down from central NSW. Heavy Rain and storms will start off moving NW-SE then N_S then NE_SW as the rain and storms begin to wrap around the low Saturday morning right into Saturday night.
This pivot on top of all of Fridays rain and storms is flooding will become a major concern.
Also the Strong winds at 850Hpa will be perpendicular to the ranges so huge up slope totals are expected.

Also with the low over NW Vic and S NSW just like Feb 2005 it wont stop raining in parts for hours as the low passes to your N. This is the prefect set up for major flooding in Vic

Saturday night into Sunday the Surface low will quickly move into SE NSw the pop out off the Gippy coast when wrap around will become off concern for central Vic and possibly gippy but prob not so much at this time.

All easing and much cooler Sunday arvo and evening with showers in Central vic and Gippy.

Event totals are massive especially on and for N facing ranges and NE Vic 150-250mm likely with isol 300mm PLUS possible.

SW Vic get the least with 30-50 isol 80mm still big lol.
Everywhere E of Mildura to Warrnambool 50-100 with many areas in the 100-200mm range and quite a few in the 200-300mm range.
HUGE Numbers for Vic in 36 hours.
Record Dec rain both daily and monthly for many areas.

Alexia? I think, get ready u are gonna be flooded cant wait for reports.
All Rivers in NE Vic will go from nothing to Mod, Major in very quick time and water will be laying around for weeks in flatter areas of NW, NC and NE Vic even after the dry few months.

Its gonna be torrential, heavy, long lasting and widespread.

Crops will be ruined get it out now, if you are N and E of the line I mentioned above it will be all flooded come Sunday.

THIS IS AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR VIC.

PLEASE keep the reports coming in WATCH the BOM site for all the latest warnings and then river updates.

When posting warning just impacts and amounts dont need to clog thread with SES wording

GET Ready its a epic event for Vic


Thanks for most comprehensive report on how weather may develop over the next days or so, Dean. Along with other comments in this thread and Weatherzone forecasts I feel I am now fully informed. Exciting times ahead! Lets hope everyone uses common sense and remains safe.

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#1442865 - 30/11/2017 11:19 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
The Charts, Bom whatever is very unpredictable so satellite and radar is only way watch where upper low starts fire-up..

There is too much ba ba Media trying presentable how much rain guess.

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#1442871 - 30/11/2017 12:00 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2851
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
That's right CA we can be informed in advance to prepare if necessary, but ultimately it is watching radar and satellite images that truly let us know what is happening in real time. To me that is also the exciting part: watching weather develop outside as well as the use of technology to see what is happening or might happen in our region.

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#1442873 - 30/11/2017 12:04 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: chasers addict]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6221
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
The Charts, Bom whatever is very unpredictable so satellite and radar is only way watch where upper low starts fire-up..

There is too much ba ba Media trying presentable how much rain guess.


Yep you are correct. Satellite and obs time!
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1442876 - 30/11/2017 12:17 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5423
Loc: Dural
Let's just hope that people are not stupid enough to drive across flooded causeways. That is my fear where lives will be lost in an event like this.
I'm already watching this event with much interest, even though us here in Sydney look like getting bugger all.
Stay safe everyone!

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#1442877 - 30/11/2017 12:20 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 534
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Big Explosion over WA and SA atm a tiny hint of whats to come.

Also air mass strom will blow up over SA and VIc today

EC, AG, GFS JMA all much the same all showing big totals and widespread flooding going to be amazing watching it all come together in the next 72 hours.

33/15c here lovely
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1442881 - 30/11/2017 12:27 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Homer]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 187
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
also of interest is the effect it has on those sprawling outer suburbs (and some inner areas) - areas that werent considered for development 10 years ago, let alone 40+ years.

some parts of melb havent seen flooding rains in that time. eg maribyrnong river catchment since 1974.

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#1442884 - 30/11/2017 12:43 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Homer]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Originally Posted By: Homer
Let's just hope that people are not stupid enough to drive across flooded causeways. That is my fear where lives will be lost in an event like this.
I'm already watching this event with much interest, even though us here in Sydney look like getting bugger all.
Stay safe everyone!
Thats right another problem is most road surface been dry too long end up road oil slippy accidents to come.

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#1442893 - 30/11/2017 13:22 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: vjknight]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6757
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: vjknight
also of interest is the effect it has on those sprawling outer suburbs (and some inner areas) - areas that werent considered for development 10 years ago, let alone 40+ years.

some parts of melb havent seen flooding rains in that time. eg maribyrnong river catchment since 1974.


....and those (ex) swamplands around Pakenham????

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#1442900 - 30/11/2017 14:14 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 675
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Was talking with Harry down the road. Said he'd just got back from town - bought himself a rain gauge. I said, "Harry, you've got a rain gauge." "Yeah. ' he said, "but with this amount of rain I think I'm gunna need two."

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#1442904 - 30/11/2017 14:47 Re: Vic - potential very wet event 30/11/17 - 3/12/17 [Re: Petros]
logansi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 975
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
Family back home in Portland have had almost endless storms since yesterday, everyone saying its the best storms they have seen in Portland (the real forcefield in Victoria :P)
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Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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