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#1442562 - 28/11/2017 10:57 SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
A broad area of low pressure associated with an Upper Level Disturbance is expected to move across the state in the coming days delivering some potential good falls to most of the state.

Thunderstorms: More favouring the western parts of the states and the Lower South East/Vic Border, some may sneak into the metro area but not holding my breath for that unless it decides to change at the last minute.

Rainfall: BoM going 15-25mm for the west, increasing to 25-50mm east of the Yorke Peninsula. Possible up to 60mm with storms and depending of the position of the Upper Level Disturbance.


For me, I'll go 20-30mm for the City areas.

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#1442718 - 29/11/2017 14:11 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Well the sky is rapidly filling in here and theres lightning aplenty just over the gulf and heading this way. I'd best take a look ...

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#1442724 - 29/11/2017 14:43 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Wow Skysthelimit, I never looked behind me over the hills with so much shock haha.

Looks like KM was spot on, even the Bureau didn't have storms within a bulls roar of Adelaide today.

Will try to get him on here to post his thoughts and explain his forecasting genius :-)

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#1442730 - 29/11/2017 15:23 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
wrxflame Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 89
Loc: SA
Will it blow through for the Ashes day nighter starting Saturday? Might even give Chad Sayers a half a sniff of selection if humid and wet conditions so he can swing the ball a mile...

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#1442748 - 29/11/2017 16:39 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1654
Loc: Bridgewater
looks like some serious storm actively near Murray bridge.

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#1442750 - 29/11/2017 16:45 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Tailem Bend area is getting slammed, looks like hail in that lot!


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#1442760 - 29/11/2017 18:19 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 144
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Looking good on the radar out in the Barossa now

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#1442765 - 29/11/2017 19:10 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Nuriootpa 6.4mm in the hour 17:00~18:00

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#1442777 - 29/11/2017 20:33 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 518
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Looking at the radar atm, it appears as though my property near Mannum is getting a nice drink!

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#1442795 - 29/11/2017 22:06 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Hopefully Adelaide sees some activity, wish someone would turn the force field off.

Itís been a hot and now sticky day here in Gulfview Heights.
_________________________
Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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#1442816 - 30/11/2017 01:42 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
No fires around here today that I know of. Rainfall too was a minimum. Just a hiccup with the harvest. Plenty of wind at one stage. Felt like a microburst...


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.

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#1442817 - 30/11/2017 01:57 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Strong system, probably the biggest and most dynamic one in a year, the catch is that it significantly favours VIC and parts of NSW rather than SA but that is where the higher sfc moisture levels lie and also the system slows down and becomes maximum strength further east.

But thursday is an unstable day, sfc moisture already caused afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern districts, and northern ranges and during the day this will again be a focus. Solar heating and a marked trough line should cause convection with showers and thunderstorms developing, chiefly during the afternoon and chiefly over EP, Mallee, Upper and Lower SE as well as the Mid North, Mt.Lofty Ranges, Riverland and of course the Pastorals where some fairly strong storms will occur once again like today and tonight. The Upper and Lower SE have some fairly strong instability and shear profiles are reasonable with some potential low level turning but alas upper level shear is a little slack. Nonetheless that area seems best for the higher potential more organised thunderstorms, pushing E into VIC.

Adelaide itself will probably be dry for most of the day but later in the afternoon there should be some storms moving SE from EP etc crossing the gulfs as upper level speed shear begins to increase as a very broad and strong dynamic upper level trough moves in from the west with huge areas of upper level divergence and lift. This will certainty give thunderstorms over the west of the state more grunt before increasing moisture aloft causes a lot of the thunderstorms to decay into rain areas, heavy at times in some areas over EP.

Friday the broad upper trough moves east and begins to pinch off aloft and cut off into an upper low as it approaches VIC/NSW border areas. At the same time a sfc low will deepen over western NSW and track SE over VIC then S towards Melbourne and this will certainly cause large areas of rain periods as well as showers and thunderstorms, renewed with more afternoon heating on friday before that too decays into heavy areas of rain and weakening thunderstorms over VIC/NSW.

Closer to home on friday though, the upper trough should cause more rain areas to keep forming to the east of the main axis and this should become fairly slow moving as the head of the upper trough passes, before gradually contracting away later friday into saturday as a ridge moves in from the west, with fairly strong southerly winds. Sfc moisture levels will be high post all this rain so certainly a fair chance of light to moderate showers continuing in the moist southerly flow during saturday and even sunday. Likely making the Adelaide Oval pitch sweat a bit and probably be green.

Rainfall totals generally over Central Adelaide areas about 20-40mm, the northern suburbs have a higher chance of getting closer to the 40mm whereas southern suburbs might come in near the 20mm mark.

EP 15-30mm isol higher in storms

YP 15-25mm isol 30mm

Mid North 30-50mm isol 75mm poss

Mt Lofty Ranges 30-50mm idol 75-90mm poss

Mallee/Riverland 25-35mm isol 50-60mm

Upper SE 20-30mm isol 40mm

Lower SE 10-30mm isol 40mm chiefly in N

KI 10-20mm isol 30mm poss

TS cool

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#1442840 - 30/11/2017 09:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 293
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Thunder embedded, low level cloud cool sw winds, steady set in rain.....the Question is how much, Not too much I hope escaped grain damage with last 58 mm so hope this lot is not anywhere as much!! 🙁

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#1442861 - 30/11/2017 11:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 293
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
6mm so far, round one. Rumbling fromNW again though!

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#1442888 - 30/11/2017 13:00 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 165
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Whats the state of play for Adelaide over the next few days?
_________________________
http://jcroucher.com/weather/

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#1442897 - 30/11/2017 14:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Well, the next few days JohnC you ask? The Bureau have put up a flood watch for Adelaide saying we could get 100mm over the next 4 days. Glad my gutters are clean haha.

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#1442911 - 30/11/2017 15:15 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 376
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
O Oh!! Is the Whyalla and Adelaide force field turned on today or am i being impatient. My southern eyre peninsula brothers enjoying some sparks.

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#1442914 - 30/11/2017 15:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
IDS20374

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.

Initial Flood Watch for South Australia
Issued at 12:25 pm CDT on Thursday 30 November 2017
Flood Watch Number: 1

Localised flooding is possible across much of South Australia

A low pressure trough is expected to deepen as it moves across the state from Thursday to Saturday. This will result in the development of widespread thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain across a broad area from the Eastern Eyre Peninsula stretching across the Flinders, south of the North East Pastoral, Mid North, Yorke Peninsula, Adelaide and the Mount Lofty Ranges, Riverland and Murraylands.

Daily falls of around 50 mm are possible. Rainfall totals between Thursday to Saturday may reach 100 mm.

From later Thursday to Saturday areas of local flooding and water level rises in rivers and creeks are likely in the catchments covered by this flood watch.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Flinders Ranges Rivers and Creeks
Broughton River
Light and Wakefield Rivers
Angas and Bremer Rivers
Torrens and metropolitan rivers and creeks
Gawler River
Onkaparinga River
Lake Frome
Danggali Rivers and Creeks
River Murray Murraylands
River Murray Riverlands
Eastern Eyre Peninsula
Yorke Peninsula

For the latest SA Warnings refer to www.bom.gov.au/sa/warnings

For more information on the Flood Warning and Flood Watch Service: www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml

South Australia Flood Watch catchment map: www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/image/BOM_Flood_Watch_Areas_map_SouthAustralia_2017.pdf

Flood Safety Advice:
This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams should monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

For flood emergency assistance contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies call Triple Zero (000) immediately.

Next Issue:
The next flood watch will be issued by 12:30 pm CDT on Friday 01 December 2017.

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#1442918 - 30/11/2017 15:43 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 293
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
17mm solid steady rain and rumbles not so much enjoying the sparks, as watching the grain deteriate! Power of four times this morning, but off all together now , no mobile signal as well .... be careful what you wish For!

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#1442921 - 30/11/2017 16:12 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Hope we get something here frown
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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