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#1443045 - 01/12/2017 09:14 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: Werner K]
red earth Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2007
Posts: 366
Loc: Lockleys, Adelaide
We're only a km or so north of the airport and recorded just under 20mms, so lucky to be under a decent drop. cool

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#1443050 - 01/12/2017 09:36 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1651
Loc: Uleybury
23.6mm to 9am at Home
Happy with that

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#1443051 - 01/12/2017 09:37 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 542
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
22mm here

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#1443059 - 01/12/2017 10:10 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
The Bureau have gone from 50mm of rain in last nights forecast for Adelaide with flooding etc, to 4mm this morning haha. That's not even possible to see that much variation in that short time, unless you have no idea. haha.

I've been told to prepare for 50mm as uncertainty in weather models even this morning creates the opportunity for *Anything is possible today*

Rain totals for Adelaide Area today by Model output are,

Access R Model 5mm
Access G Model 30mm
Ec Model 20mm
Gsf Model 5mm
Cmc Model 20mm
TWC Model 30mm

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#1443060 - 01/12/2017 10:12 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 121
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Looks around 15mm in the gauge at the moment. Pretty significant downgrade in the rain forecast for today it seems. What happened? lol

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#1443061 - 01/12/2017 10:13 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
PeteM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/05/2012
Posts: 72
Loc: Redwood Park SA
So we just wait and see what happens once the upper trough moves through this afternoon.

Clear skies at the moment, should (hopefully) allow for some surface heating to occur.

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#1443062 - 01/12/2017 10:14 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
And they still have the flood watch up including Adelaide ;-)

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#1443071 - 01/12/2017 11:19 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 611
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
15mm in my gauge now.

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#1443089 - 01/12/2017 12:41 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2374
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hi, SA as everyone confuse where the upper low looks like West of Adelaide at Elliston ,you can see the Velocity development. I hope so.

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#1443155 - 01/12/2017 17:54 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1572
Loc: West Richmond
Interesting, you can actually see showers moving over each other in the opposite direction on the radar now.

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#1443188 - 01/12/2017 21:30 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 181
Loc: Reynella, SA
Light rain falling in the south. smile

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#1443192 - 01/12/2017 21:48 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14876
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
No surprises whatsoever about today with all storms well north and the gap in the rain, signs were there late yesterday sadly on all the models...13mm to 9am was welcome all the same.

Upper trough doing its thing now but to be honest it's lagging so far behind the surface low now that there is minimal connection between the two, bit of mid level rain to come with low level showers coming up from the south in the onshore flow beneath the rainband hence the differing direction of cells/rain areas on radar.

Then it's ridge city and back to boredom for a long time.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (01/12/2017 21:48)

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#1443250 - 02/12/2017 10:21 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck

Then it's ridge city and back to boredom for a long time.

TS cool


Oh well I'm sure the farmers will welcome 'boring' as long as they can get their crops off. Gee its gonna take awhile to get back in the swing as its still gonna shower for a bit and the temps aren't gonna climb for the next few days frown

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#1443253 - 02/12/2017 10:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2137
Loc: Clare, SA
36mm overnight in clare...sweet sweet relief after missing almost EVERY last heavy cell the last few days so nice to finally score.

Saw some nice storms over the past few days as well, good event overall.

49mm event total
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1443400 - 02/12/2017 21:21 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1621
Loc: Bridgewater
weather:1
BOM: 0

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#1443462 - 03/12/2017 09:15 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Couldn't agree more Eevo, that was one of if not the worst forecast I've ever seen haha.

That was as far from the opposite of 100mm as you could get. Warnings everywhere on news, radio, papers. Terrible terrible terrible.

Anyone who thinks that system went as forecast has either rocks in there head, or works for the bureau, or both haha.

More showers this week as I see from the clouds haha.

Until next time, Tim out.


Edited by TindraTim (03/12/2017 09:16)
Edit Reason: Worked out how to edit haha

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#1443472 - 03/12/2017 09:48 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17535
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
While the forecast here wasn't great, BOM are just forecasting what the models were showing. For us basically the upper trough came through slower and later than expected, meaning we didn't see the totals expected. Talking about expected totals, the only place I recall 100mm mentioned was in the flood watch warnings, which was really a broad possibility for particular areas of the state. No mention of those sort of totals were in any state or district forecasts. Adelaide was certainly not forecast to get anywhere near that.
In terms of warnings for SA, there really was only the general flood watch out. Media hype was limited to eastern states where they had a field day...

In summary, yep forecast ended up being pathetic, but remember its a forecast. If you've followed the weather for awhile you would know that its one of the most unpredictable things on this planet.

edit: BTW, I know some areas got pretty close to the 100mm mark... might not be reflective in the AWS stations but farms/station recordings that got under thunderstorms did manage some huge falls.


Edited by teckert (03/12/2017 09:51)

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#1443506 - 03/12/2017 12:46 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2137
Loc: Clare, SA
The actual (original) forecast the night before this whole event started was for 'possible 50-100mm mainly with thunderstorms in the Northern Ag'. And this was verified at a few places, as Teck said most were private readings. Appila had 50mm in 24 hours and 61mm for the event.
Had 50mm in Clare. Not sure why the specific mention of 100mm, ag areas were forecast 20-50mm.

I'm pretty sure the forecast for adelaide (at the beginning of the event) was like 20-50mm..northern parts of the metro had more than 20mm. If the upper trough came through quicker and little south, some parts of Adelaide may have had over 50mm. This was forecast 3 days out from the upper trough coming through so huge margin of error.

There are some things the BoM went badly wrong with though. Mainly the Friday rain band, they should have changed it to a possible shower turning to rain (issued on Thursday night). On models there was still no real indication Adelaide was going to miss out until model runs the next day.

The models are notorious for struggling with high moisture events, any weather enthusiast should know that.

So whilst the forecast was off, it wasn't ridiculously far off and the original forecast was completely appropriate for this event.
People need to read the forecasts better.
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1443519 - 03/12/2017 13:50 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17535
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
agreed. I was expecting about 30mm from the event for my place based on models and forecasts. I've got 25.5mm which is fantastic for the start of December.

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#1443563 - 03/12/2017 16:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Thanks guys for explaining, it really helps millions. I was more talking about Friday when saying terrible terrible terrible. But yes saying that, indeed models had not changed much until Friday morning so I guess they were only 12 or so hours out of whack. Haha.

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