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#1442562 - 28/11/2017 10:57 SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
A broad area of low pressure associated with an Upper Level Disturbance is expected to move across the state in the coming days delivering some potential good falls to most of the state.

Thunderstorms: More favouring the western parts of the states and the Lower South East/Vic Border, some may sneak into the metro area but not holding my breath for that unless it decides to change at the last minute.

Rainfall: BoM going 15-25mm for the west, increasing to 25-50mm east of the Yorke Peninsula. Possible up to 60mm with storms and depending of the position of the Upper Level Disturbance.


For me, I'll go 20-30mm for the City areas.

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#1442718 - 29/11/2017 14:11 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Well the sky is rapidly filling in here and theres lightning aplenty just over the gulf and heading this way. I'd best take a look ...

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#1442724 - 29/11/2017 14:43 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Wow Skysthelimit, I never looked behind me over the hills with so much shock haha.

Looks like KM was spot on, even the Bureau didn't have storms within a bulls roar of Adelaide today.

Will try to get him on here to post his thoughts and explain his forecasting genius :-)

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#1442730 - 29/11/2017 15:23 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
wrxflame Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/06/2007
Posts: 89
Loc: SA
Will it blow through for the Ashes day nighter starting Saturday? Might even give Chad Sayers a half a sniff of selection if humid and wet conditions so he can swing the ball a mile...

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#1442748 - 29/11/2017 16:39 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1654
Loc: Bridgewater
looks like some serious storm actively near Murray bridge.

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#1442750 - 29/11/2017 16:45 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Tailem Bend area is getting slammed, looks like hail in that lot!


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#1442760 - 29/11/2017 18:19 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 144
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Looking good on the radar out in the Barossa now

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#1442765 - 29/11/2017 19:10 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Nuriootpa 6.4mm in the hour 17:00~18:00

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#1442777 - 29/11/2017 20:33 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 518
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Looking at the radar atm, it appears as though my property near Mannum is getting a nice drink!

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#1442795 - 29/11/2017 22:06 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Hopefully Adelaide sees some activity, wish someone would turn the force field off.

Itís been a hot and now sticky day here in Gulfview Heights.
_________________________
Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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#1442816 - 30/11/2017 01:42 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
No fires around here today that I know of. Rainfall too was a minimum. Just a hiccup with the harvest. Plenty of wind at one stage. Felt like a microburst...


[/url]


[/url]

.

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#1442817 - 30/11/2017 01:57 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Strong system, probably the biggest and most dynamic one in a year, the catch is that it significantly favours VIC and parts of NSW rather than SA but that is where the higher sfc moisture levels lie and also the system slows down and becomes maximum strength further east.

But thursday is an unstable day, sfc moisture already caused afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern districts, and northern ranges and during the day this will again be a focus. Solar heating and a marked trough line should cause convection with showers and thunderstorms developing, chiefly during the afternoon and chiefly over EP, Mallee, Upper and Lower SE as well as the Mid North, Mt.Lofty Ranges, Riverland and of course the Pastorals where some fairly strong storms will occur once again like today and tonight. The Upper and Lower SE have some fairly strong instability and shear profiles are reasonable with some potential low level turning but alas upper level shear is a little slack. Nonetheless that area seems best for the higher potential more organised thunderstorms, pushing E into VIC.

Adelaide itself will probably be dry for most of the day but later in the afternoon there should be some storms moving SE from EP etc crossing the gulfs as upper level speed shear begins to increase as a very broad and strong dynamic upper level trough moves in from the west with huge areas of upper level divergence and lift. This will certainty give thunderstorms over the west of the state more grunt before increasing moisture aloft causes a lot of the thunderstorms to decay into rain areas, heavy at times in some areas over EP.

Friday the broad upper trough moves east and begins to pinch off aloft and cut off into an upper low as it approaches VIC/NSW border areas. At the same time a sfc low will deepen over western NSW and track SE over VIC then S towards Melbourne and this will certainly cause large areas of rain periods as well as showers and thunderstorms, renewed with more afternoon heating on friday before that too decays into heavy areas of rain and weakening thunderstorms over VIC/NSW.

Closer to home on friday though, the upper trough should cause more rain areas to keep forming to the east of the main axis and this should become fairly slow moving as the head of the upper trough passes, before gradually contracting away later friday into saturday as a ridge moves in from the west, with fairly strong southerly winds. Sfc moisture levels will be high post all this rain so certainly a fair chance of light to moderate showers continuing in the moist southerly flow during saturday and even sunday. Likely making the Adelaide Oval pitch sweat a bit and probably be green.

Rainfall totals generally over Central Adelaide areas about 20-40mm, the northern suburbs have a higher chance of getting closer to the 40mm whereas southern suburbs might come in near the 20mm mark.

EP 15-30mm isol higher in storms

YP 15-25mm isol 30mm

Mid North 30-50mm isol 75mm poss

Mt Lofty Ranges 30-50mm idol 75-90mm poss

Mallee/Riverland 25-35mm isol 50-60mm

Upper SE 20-30mm isol 40mm

Lower SE 10-30mm isol 40mm chiefly in N

KI 10-20mm isol 30mm poss

TS cool

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#1442840 - 30/11/2017 09:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 293
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Thunder embedded, low level cloud cool sw winds, steady set in rain.....the Question is how much, Not too much I hope escaped grain damage with last 58 mm so hope this lot is not anywhere as much!! 🙁

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#1442861 - 30/11/2017 11:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 293
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
6mm so far, round one. Rumbling fromNW again though!

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#1442888 - 30/11/2017 13:00 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 165
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Whats the state of play for Adelaide over the next few days?
_________________________
http://jcroucher.com/weather/

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#1442897 - 30/11/2017 14:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Well, the next few days JohnC you ask? The Bureau have put up a flood watch for Adelaide saying we could get 100mm over the next 4 days. Glad my gutters are clean haha.

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#1442911 - 30/11/2017 15:15 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 376
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
O Oh!! Is the Whyalla and Adelaide force field turned on today or am i being impatient. My southern eyre peninsula brothers enjoying some sparks.

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#1442914 - 30/11/2017 15:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
IDS20374

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia
This Flood Watch provides early advice of possible flooding within the specified catchments.

Initial Flood Watch for South Australia
Issued at 12:25 pm CDT on Thursday 30 November 2017
Flood Watch Number: 1

Localised flooding is possible across much of South Australia

A low pressure trough is expected to deepen as it moves across the state from Thursday to Saturday. This will result in the development of widespread thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain across a broad area from the Eastern Eyre Peninsula stretching across the Flinders, south of the North East Pastoral, Mid North, Yorke Peninsula, Adelaide and the Mount Lofty Ranges, Riverland and Murraylands.

Daily falls of around 50 mm are possible. Rainfall totals between Thursday to Saturday may reach 100 mm.

From later Thursday to Saturday areas of local flooding and water level rises in rivers and creeks are likely in the catchments covered by this flood watch.

Catchments likely to be affected include:

Flinders Ranges Rivers and Creeks
Broughton River
Light and Wakefield Rivers
Angas and Bremer Rivers
Torrens and metropolitan rivers and creeks
Gawler River
Onkaparinga River
Lake Frome
Danggali Rivers and Creeks
River Murray Murraylands
River Murray Riverlands
Eastern Eyre Peninsula
Yorke Peninsula

For the latest SA Warnings refer to www.bom.gov.au/sa/warnings

For more information on the Flood Warning and Flood Watch Service: www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/floodWarningServices.shtml

South Australia Flood Watch catchment map: www.bom.gov.au/water/floods/image/BOM_Flood_Watch_Areas_map_SouthAustralia_2017.pdf

Flood Safety Advice:
This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and streams should monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

For flood emergency assistance contact the State Emergency Service on 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies call Triple Zero (000) immediately.

Next Issue:
The next flood watch will be issued by 12:30 pm CDT on Friday 01 December 2017.

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#1442918 - 30/11/2017 15:43 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 293
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
17mm solid steady rain and rumbles not so much enjoying the sparks, as watching the grain deteriate! Power of four times this morning, but off all together now , no mobile signal as well .... be careful what you wish For!

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#1442921 - 30/11/2017 16:12 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Hope we get something here frown
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1442927 - 30/11/2017 16:28 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 376
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Some strikes around Whyalla, about ten in twenty minutes. Lightning tracker not showing it.

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#1442928 - 30/11/2017 16:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 376
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Popped up like a makeshift food van.

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#1442945 - 30/11/2017 17:59 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1891
Loc: Semaphore SA
Yay thunderstorm likely. Very high chance of thunderstorms tomorrow with locally heavy falls grin
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1442947 - 30/11/2017 18:14 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: Chris #3]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 376
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Originally Posted By: Chris #3
Yay thunderstorm likely. Very high chance of thunderstorms tomorrow with locally heavy falls grin

Done for us Upper Eyre Pen. Im guaranteeing a fizzer for the rest of the state.

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#1442949 - 30/11/2017 18:15 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 376
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Southerly blowing.

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#1442951 - 30/11/2017 18:34 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Sky not anywhere near as threatening as it was an hour ago, I'd say it will be lucky to even rain here out of this lot haha.

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#1442952 - 30/11/2017 18:34 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Maybe tomorrow hey

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#1442955 - 30/11/2017 18:49 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Ah! A rumble!

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#1442958 - 30/11/2017 19:03 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Going by the lightning radar you're about to score a direct hit in the city? smile

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#1442959 - 30/11/2017 19:09 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1576
Loc: West Richmond
Just saw a bolt over the gulf

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#1442960 - 30/11/2017 19:16 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Ok! That was a bolt seen on my weather webcam! Yeah! Bring it on!!

That sure looks like rain... ;-)



And rain here now as well.


Edited by betsuin (30/11/2017 19:21)

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#1442963 - 30/11/2017 19:37 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Almost constant rumbles here at the moment.

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#1442977 - 30/11/2017 20:59 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
1 whole mm out of that.

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#1443006 - 30/11/2017 23:10 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
Good rains falling at the moment at home
Up to 13.0mm so far and still falling
Quick fire of 7mm in that heavy dump that went over

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#1443008 - 30/11/2017 23:27 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Steady rain with this next band.

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#1443010 - 01/12/2017 01:02 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Great day chasing out near Bordertown, loads of strong storms and then one to finish at Tailem Bend at sunset. Pics maybe tomorrow or the next day.

Not convinced about tomorrow for storms for Adelaide, to me it all seems to be well north, can't see much rain even until upper low gets closer to re-activate rain areas later in the day. Today was the main thunderstorm day not tomorrow. Strong storms much further north across upper Mid North/Flinders/Pastorals and N Riverland areas.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (01/12/2017 01:02)

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#1443013 - 01/12/2017 06:04 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Big back off in rainfall totals by bom overnight

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#1443021 - 01/12/2017 07:18 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1654
Loc: Bridgewater
are we expecting more today or are we all done?

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#1443040 - 01/12/2017 09:03 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Got a feeling this system now will more favour this side of the hills once the low develops over western vic and the wind tends more south easterly...maybe?

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#1443043 - 01/12/2017 09:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: Ricky]
Werner K Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 518
Loc: Flinders Park, SA
Originally Posted By: Ricky
Just saw a bolt over the gulf


From where we were on the eastern side of the airport, it looked like it hit somewhere near the BOM site at the airport, but it could well have been just a line of sight aberration.

At one stage the control tower couldn't be seen, the rain was that heavy.

At home, recorded 15.6mm until 745am.

Hopefully enough to soften the ground so that the remaining weeds can be removed.

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#1443045 - 01/12/2017 09:14 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: Werner K]
red earth Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2007
Posts: 374
Loc: Lockleys, Adelaide
We're only a km or so north of the airport and recorded just under 20mms, so lucky to be under a decent drop. cool

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#1443050 - 01/12/2017 09:36 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1681
Loc: Uleybury
23.6mm to 9am at Home
Happy with that

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#1443051 - 01/12/2017 09:37 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 573
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
22mm here

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#1443059 - 01/12/2017 10:10 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
The Bureau have gone from 50mm of rain in last nights forecast for Adelaide with flooding etc, to 4mm this morning haha. That's not even possible to see that much variation in that short time, unless you have no idea. haha.

I've been told to prepare for 50mm as uncertainty in weather models even this morning creates the opportunity for *Anything is possible today*

Rain totals for Adelaide Area today by Model output are,

Access R Model 5mm
Access G Model 30mm
Ec Model 20mm
Gsf Model 5mm
Cmc Model 20mm
TWC Model 30mm

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#1443060 - 01/12/2017 10:12 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooraka Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/02/2006
Posts: 144
Loc: Pooraka, Adelaide, South Austr...
Looks around 15mm in the gauge at the moment. Pretty significant downgrade in the rain forecast for today it seems. What happened? lol

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#1443061 - 01/12/2017 10:13 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
PeteM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/05/2012
Posts: 75
Loc: Redwood Park SA
So we just wait and see what happens once the upper trough moves through this afternoon.

Clear skies at the moment, should (hopefully) allow for some surface heating to occur.

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#1443062 - 01/12/2017 10:14 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
And they still have the flood watch up including Adelaide ;-)

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#1443071 - 01/12/2017 11:19 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
15mm in my gauge now.

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#1443089 - 01/12/2017 12:41 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2611
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hi, SA as everyone confuse where the upper low looks like West of Adelaide at Elliston ,you can see the Velocity development. I hope so.

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#1443155 - 01/12/2017 17:54 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ricky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/09/2003
Posts: 1576
Loc: West Richmond
Interesting, you can actually see showers moving over each other in the opposite direction on the radar now.

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#1443188 - 01/12/2017 21:30 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 192
Loc: Reynella, SA
Light rain falling in the south. smile

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#1443192 - 01/12/2017 21:48 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
No surprises whatsoever about today with all storms well north and the gap in the rain, signs were there late yesterday sadly on all the models...13mm to 9am was welcome all the same.

Upper trough doing its thing now but to be honest it's lagging so far behind the surface low now that there is minimal connection between the two, bit of mid level rain to come with low level showers coming up from the south in the onshore flow beneath the rainband hence the differing direction of cells/rain areas on radar.

Then it's ridge city and back to boredom for a long time.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (01/12/2017 21:48)

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#1443250 - 02/12/2017 10:21 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1131
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck

Then it's ridge city and back to boredom for a long time.

TS cool


Oh well I'm sure the farmers will welcome 'boring' as long as they can get their crops off. Gee its gonna take awhile to get back in the swing as its still gonna shower for a bit and the temps aren't gonna climb for the next few days frown

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#1443253 - 02/12/2017 10:29 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
36mm overnight in clare...sweet sweet relief after missing almost EVERY last heavy cell the last few days so nice to finally score.

Saw some nice storms over the past few days as well, good event overall.

49mm event total
_________________________
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1443400 - 02/12/2017 21:21 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1654
Loc: Bridgewater
weather:1
BOM: 0

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#1443462 - 03/12/2017 09:15 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Couldn't agree more Eevo, that was one of if not the worst forecast I've ever seen haha.

That was as far from the opposite of 100mm as you could get. Warnings everywhere on news, radio, papers. Terrible terrible terrible.

Anyone who thinks that system went as forecast has either rocks in there head, or works for the bureau, or both haha.

More showers this week as I see from the clouds haha.

Until next time, Tim out.


Edited by TindraTim (03/12/2017 09:16)
Edit Reason: Worked out how to edit haha

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#1443472 - 03/12/2017 09:48 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17591
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
While the forecast here wasn't great, BOM are just forecasting what the models were showing. For us basically the upper trough came through slower and later than expected, meaning we didn't see the totals expected. Talking about expected totals, the only place I recall 100mm mentioned was in the flood watch warnings, which was really a broad possibility for particular areas of the state. No mention of those sort of totals were in any state or district forecasts. Adelaide was certainly not forecast to get anywhere near that.
In terms of warnings for SA, there really was only the general flood watch out. Media hype was limited to eastern states where they had a field day...

In summary, yep forecast ended up being pathetic, but remember its a forecast. If you've followed the weather for awhile you would know that its one of the most unpredictable things on this planet.

edit: BTW, I know some areas got pretty close to the 100mm mark... might not be reflective in the AWS stations but farms/station recordings that got under thunderstorms did manage some huge falls.


Edited by teckert (03/12/2017 09:51)

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#1443506 - 03/12/2017 12:46 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2208
Loc: Clare, SA
The actual (original) forecast the night before this whole event started was for 'possible 50-100mm mainly with thunderstorms in the Northern Ag'. And this was verified at a few places, as Teck said most were private readings. Appila had 50mm in 24 hours and 61mm for the event.
Had 50mm in Clare. Not sure why the specific mention of 100mm, ag areas were forecast 20-50mm.

I'm pretty sure the forecast for adelaide (at the beginning of the event) was like 20-50mm..northern parts of the metro had more than 20mm. If the upper trough came through quicker and little south, some parts of Adelaide may have had over 50mm. This was forecast 3 days out from the upper trough coming through so huge margin of error.

There are some things the BoM went badly wrong with though. Mainly the Friday rain band, they should have changed it to a possible shower turning to rain (issued on Thursday night). On models there was still no real indication Adelaide was going to miss out until model runs the next day.

The models are notorious for struggling with high moisture events, any weather enthusiast should know that.

So whilst the forecast was off, it wasn't ridiculously far off and the original forecast was completely appropriate for this event.
People need to read the forecasts better.
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#1443519 - 03/12/2017 13:50 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17591
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
agreed. I was expecting about 30mm from the event for my place based on models and forecasts. I've got 25.5mm which is fantastic for the start of December.

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#1443563 - 03/12/2017 16:08 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TindraTim Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/11/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Flagstaff Hill, South Australi...
Thanks guys for explaining, it really helps millions. I was more talking about Friday when saying terrible terrible terrible. But yes saying that, indeed models had not changed much until Friday morning so I guess they were only 12 or so hours out of whack. Haha.

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#1443574 - 03/12/2017 16:54 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 714
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Bit of light rain about today, had to throw the rain coat on several times bush-walking today:


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#1443811 - 04/12/2017 21:24 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
parklife Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/02/2013
Posts: 97
Loc: Hazelwood Park
I would like to add my appreciation for the logical analysis of the Bom forecasts. Which model stacked up the best? From my own (scratchy) observation, GFS seemed to do ok although it favoured high falls for Saturday morning which did not eventuate.

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#1443816 - 04/12/2017 21:35 Re: SA - Rain/Storms Upper Level Disturbance Nov 30 - Dec 2 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 795
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Heres what I got here in Gulfview Heights from the Nov-30-Dec-2 system.

Nov 30: 18.2 mm
Dec 1: 3.0 mm
Dec 2: 3.2 mm

Total: 24.4 mm
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Current Gulfview Heights weather
http://ryanhothersall.net/gulfview-heights-weather/

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